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Ok, maybe it's too optimistic but I'd totally make a wager. I say it will take 5 years for the Bay, 10 for major cities and highways, 15 for the rest of the cou

Ok, maybe it's too optimistic but I'd totally make a wager. I say it will take 5 years for the Bay, 10 for major cities and highways, 15 for the rest of the country and by 2050, human driving will be illegal on public roads. any takers?

kcarter80 11y ago
To be clear: you want to bet that in 5 years human driving will be illegal on public roads in "the Bay"?
- adamwong246 11y ago
  no, I don't think we'll outlaw human driving for several decades. It will take a while for the old holdouts to die off- those individuals who'll stop driving when you pry the steering wheel from their "cold dead hands." But I do think that the legalization of auto-automobiles will start in San Fransisco and the surrounding area.
  - ascorbic 11y ago
    Probably fewer and fewer people will go to the effort of learning to drive and passing the test, particularly in places where it's difficult and expensive.
- Eleopteryx 11y ago
  I don't think so. Rather, by 2050, driving will have been made illegal except on closed courses. Personally I don't think it will ever have to be illegal. It's more likely that people will stop driving of their own volition and the laws allowing driving will remain in place, just be unused. I'm actually in agreement that autonomous transportation will become "a thing" in roughly five years, somewhere in the world, in some capacity. This will prove the model and eliminate most of the rational arguments for its prohibition, which will lead to it becoming commonplace but probably over the course of several decades.
ar0b 11y ago
If I had any money, I'd probably take you up on that. I think the technology might be ready in that time frame, but bureaucracy and safety concerns will push it back. We don't know how well the vision/detection methods of driver-less cars will handle certain scenarios, like a solar flare, or direct subversion from other humans. Would someone be able to disable my car from moving and rob me with a few small devices?
- adamwong246 11y ago
  I agree that bureaucracy is the main hurdle. The technology is so close but I'm not sure that the populace or the government is ready. But malicious agents can disable your car today. A solar flare would fry you current car's electronics just as easily as an auto-auto. And a gun qualifies as a "small device" too, so I'm not sure why that makes in difference.
steven777400 11y ago
"Self driving" cars which require a human to be ready to take over are totally plausible in that time frame... But are you suggesting that in 5 years a person can summon an autonomous taxi in the Bay area? By autonomous car I mean the client (passenger) will not need to be ready to take control nor will there be any other human in the vehicle for that purpose, and the vehicle will transport the client from one place in the Bay to another over the public road system, mixing with other non-autonomous traffic of various types. If so, I'm in for USD $100. I say that in 5 years (12/17/2020 or before) it will NOT be the case that a user can expect to summon an autonomous (as defined above) taxi for transport anywhere in the United States.
- adamwong246 11y ago
  Ok, consider that wager taken. I think the key parts of the wager are 1) that the car drives itself, without a human present 2) it's in the Bay area and 3) it's legal. I'll see you in 5 years.

kcarter80 11y ago

To be clear: you want to bet that in 5 years human driving will be illegal on public roads in "the Bay"?

adamwong246 11y ago
no, I don't think we'll outlaw human driving for several decades. It will take a while for the old holdouts to die off- those individuals who'll stop driving when you pry the steering wheel from their "cold dead hands." But I do think that the legalization of auto-automobiles will start in San Fransisco and the surrounding area.
- ascorbic 11y ago
  Probably fewer and fewer people will go to the effort of learning to drive and passing the test, particularly in places where it's difficult and expensive.
Eleopteryx 11y ago
I don't think so. Rather, by 2050, driving will have been made illegal except on closed courses. Personally I don't think it will ever have to be illegal. It's more likely that people will stop driving of their own volition and the laws allowing driving will remain in place, just be unused. I'm actually in agreement that autonomous transportation will become "a thing" in roughly five years, somewhere in the world, in some capacity. This will prove the model and eliminate most of the rational arguments for its prohibition, which will lead to it becoming commonplace but probably over the course of several decades.

ar0b 11y ago

If I had any money, I'd probably take you up on that. I think the technology might be ready in that time frame, but bureaucracy and safety concerns will push it back. We don't know how well the vision/detection methods of driver-less cars will handle certain scenarios, like a solar flare, or direct subversion from other humans. Would someone be able to disable my car from moving and rob me with a few small devices?

adamwong246 11y ago
I agree that bureaucracy is the main hurdle. The technology is so close but I'm not sure that the populace or the government is ready. But malicious agents can disable your car today. A solar flare would fry you current car's electronics just as easily as an auto-auto. And a gun qualifies as a "small device" too, so I'm not sure why that makes in difference.

steven777400 11y ago

"Self driving" cars which require a human to be ready to take over are totally plausible in that time frame... But are you suggesting that in 5 years a person can summon an autonomous taxi in the Bay area? By autonomous car I mean the client (passenger) will not need to be ready to take control nor will there be any other human in the vehicle for that purpose, and the vehicle will transport the client from one place in the Bay to another over the public road system, mixing with other non-autonomous traffic of various types. If so, I'm in for USD $100. I say that in 5 years (12/17/2020 or before) it will NOT be the case that a user can expect to summon an autonomous (as defined above) taxi for transport anywhere in the United States.

adamwong246 11y ago
Ok, consider that wager taken. I think the key parts of the wager are 1) that the car drives itself, without a human present 2) it's in the Bay area and 3) it's legal. I'll see you in 5 years.