5 ms·

"human uber drivers must know that they are, at max, 5 years away from obsolescence" Care to place a friendly wager on that? I'll even forgive the "uber driver

"human uber drivers must know that they are, at max, 5 years away from obsolescence" Care to place a friendly wager on that? I'll even forgive the "uber drivers must know" part of your crazy statement since that obviously isn't correct. Ubiquitous driverless cars are coming. 5 years is an incredibly aggressive time frame.

tachyonbeam 11y ago
It's a ridiculous timeframe if you consider that there are no driverless cars for sale right now. Even if Tesla or Ford or any other vendor started selling them tomorrow, the driverless cars would be too expensive and the factories could hardly pump out enough of them to put every Uber driver out of a job in just 5 years. I'm looking forward to being able to order a driverless car from my phone, but in just 5 years, these cars might still be scarce, illegal in most places and they might suffer from limitations in their driving ability that prove problematic.
- OmarIsmail 11y ago
  You're thinking about it wrong. No consumer is going to buy a driverless car. Instead you'll call an Uber or GoogleTaxi and there won't be a human behind the wheel. Just like Musk said, owning s car is going to become like owning a horse. People do it as a hobby but not as a necessity.
  - adamwong246 11y ago
    I agree. We'll buy into car share networks. There will be super primo services where you can ride in a limo, business class networks that allow you to ride in privacy and maybe even economy class networks where busses and vans carpool like uber's new hop feature. Crucially, this allows the number of overall cars to slashed. 1 auto-auto can do the work of 10 non-auto-autos, and the cost will be spread out among subscribers and expensive electric cars will finally be cheap enough for everyone.
- nostrademons 11y ago
  Driverless cars don't have to be custom-built: you can add a kit to an existing car that contains a Linux box, LIDAR, cameras, and appropriate machinery to drive the car's controls. Most of the existing Google prototypes have been Priuses or Lexuses with the kit. IIRC, all the components are pretty inexpensive; by far the biggest cost is the LIDAR, but that's because they're not produced in volume and so you have to pay custom-built prices.
adamwong246 11y ago
Ok, maybe it's too optimistic but I'd totally make a wager. I say it will take 5 years for the Bay, 10 for major cities and highways, 15 for the rest of the country and by 2050, human driving will be illegal on public roads. any takers?
- kcarter80 11y ago
  To be clear: you want to bet that in 5 years human driving will be illegal on public roads in "the Bay"?
  - adamwong246 11y ago
    no, I don't think we'll outlaw human driving for several decades. It will take a while for the old holdouts to die off- those individuals who'll stop driving when you pry the steering wheel from their "cold dead hands." But I do think that the legalization of auto-automobiles will start in San Fransisco and the surrounding area.
    - ascorbic 11y ago
      Probably fewer and fewer people will go to the effort of learning to drive and passing the test, particularly in places where it's difficult and expensive.
  - Eleopteryx 11y ago
    I don't think so. Rather, by 2050, driving will have been made illegal except on closed courses. Personally I don't think it will ever have to be illegal. It's more likely that people will stop driving of their own volition and the laws allowing driving will remain in place, just be unused. I'm actually in agreement that autonomous transportation will become "a thing" in roughly five years, somewhere in the world, in some capacity. This will prove the model and eliminate most of the rational arguments for its prohibition, which will lead to it becoming commonplace but probably over the course of several decades.
- ar0b 11y ago
  If I had any money, I'd probably take you up on that. I think the technology might be ready in that time frame, but bureaucracy and safety concerns will push it back. We don't know how well the vision/detection methods of driver-less cars will handle certain scenarios, like a solar flare, or direct subversion from other humans. Would someone be able to disable my car from moving and rob me with a few small devices?
dominotw 11y ago
This might be a ridiculous question. But, why don't we have self flying pilotless airplanes yet? I'd imagine problem set is much more limited and tons of research has already been done.
- jonknee 11y ago
  > But, why don't we have self flying pilotless airplanes yet? I'd imagine problem set is much more limited and tons of research has already been done. We do, but they're mainly used to surveil people instead of move them around.
- adamwong246 11y ago
  I think for the most part, we do. The pilots are part of the "theater of security"- the computer does most the work. Many people wouldn't ride in planes without a human behind the wheel. And this fear of machines is the biggest hurdle to auto-autos.
  - princeb 11y ago
    why do autopilots keep turning off every time the planes run into problems? like the air france and the air asia indonesia crash turning control over to pilots is a recipe for disaster.
    - dominotw 11y ago
      They do eg when there is a mismatch between the numbers they getting from 2 different sensors.

tachyonbeam 11y ago

It's a ridiculous timeframe if you consider that there are no driverless cars for sale right now. Even if Tesla or Ford or any other vendor started selling them tomorrow, the driverless cars would be too expensive and the factories could hardly pump out enough of them to put every Uber driver out of a job in just 5 years. I'm looking forward to being able to order a driverless car from my phone, but in just 5 years, these cars might still be scarce, illegal in most places and they might suffer from limitations in their driving ability that prove problematic.

OmarIsmail 11y ago
You're thinking about it wrong. No consumer is going to buy a driverless car. Instead you'll call an Uber or GoogleTaxi and there won't be a human behind the wheel. Just like Musk said, owning s car is going to become like owning a horse. People do it as a hobby but not as a necessity.
- adamwong246 11y ago
  I agree. We'll buy into car share networks. There will be super primo services where you can ride in a limo, business class networks that allow you to ride in privacy and maybe even economy class networks where busses and vans carpool like uber's new hop feature. Crucially, this allows the number of overall cars to slashed. 1 auto-auto can do the work of 10 non-auto-autos, and the cost will be spread out among subscribers and expensive electric cars will finally be cheap enough for everyone.
nostrademons 11y ago
Driverless cars don't have to be custom-built: you can add a kit to an existing car that contains a Linux box, LIDAR, cameras, and appropriate machinery to drive the car's controls. Most of the existing Google prototypes have been Priuses or Lexuses with the kit. IIRC, all the components are pretty inexpensive; by far the biggest cost is the LIDAR, but that's because they're not produced in volume and so you have to pay custom-built prices.

adamwong246 11y ago

Ok, maybe it's too optimistic but I'd totally make a wager. I say it will take 5 years for the Bay, 10 for major cities and highways, 15 for the rest of the country and by 2050, human driving will be illegal on public roads. any takers?

kcarter80 11y ago
To be clear: you want to bet that in 5 years human driving will be illegal on public roads in "the Bay"?
- adamwong246 11y ago
  no, I don't think we'll outlaw human driving for several decades. It will take a while for the old holdouts to die off- those individuals who'll stop driving when you pry the steering wheel from their "cold dead hands." But I do think that the legalization of auto-automobiles will start in San Fransisco and the surrounding area.
  - ascorbic 11y ago
    Probably fewer and fewer people will go to the effort of learning to drive and passing the test, particularly in places where it's difficult and expensive.
- Eleopteryx 11y ago
  I don't think so. Rather, by 2050, driving will have been made illegal except on closed courses. Personally I don't think it will ever have to be illegal. It's more likely that people will stop driving of their own volition and the laws allowing driving will remain in place, just be unused. I'm actually in agreement that autonomous transportation will become "a thing" in roughly five years, somewhere in the world, in some capacity. This will prove the model and eliminate most of the rational arguments for its prohibition, which will lead to it becoming commonplace but probably over the course of several decades.
ar0b 11y ago
If I had any money, I'd probably take you up on that. I think the technology might be ready in that time frame, but bureaucracy and safety concerns will push it back. We don't know how well the vision/detection methods of driver-less cars will handle certain scenarios, like a solar flare, or direct subversion from other humans. Would someone be able to disable my car from moving and rob me with a few small devices?

dominotw 11y ago

This might be a ridiculous question. But, why don't we have self flying pilotless airplanes yet? I'd imagine problem set is much more limited and tons of research has already been done.

jonknee 11y ago
> But, why don't we have self flying pilotless airplanes yet? I'd imagine problem set is much more limited and tons of research has already been done. We do, but they're mainly used to surveil people instead of move them around.
adamwong246 11y ago
I think for the most part, we do. The pilots are part of the "theater of security"- the computer does most the work. Many people wouldn't ride in planes without a human behind the wheel. And this fear of machines is the biggest hurdle to auto-autos.
- princeb 11y ago
  why do autopilots keep turning off every time the planes run into problems? like the air france and the air asia indonesia crash turning control over to pilots is a recipe for disaster.
  - dominotw 11y ago
    They do eg when there is a mismatch between the numbers they getting from 2 different sensors.