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Unpacking that slightly. First, an oil glut is not a general glut, so it's possible that the demand for oil has shifted elsewhere. I don't agree that an ad ca
by brc 11y ago
Unpacking that slightly. First, an oil glut is not a general glut, so it's possible that the demand for oil has shifted elsewhere. I don't agree that an ad campaign for national gas guzzler travel would increase oil prices, because it's very unlikely that such a campaign would work, and even if it did, it would be a poor choice of resource spend.
Going back to a general glut - and I hate the term - of course it is possible to have an economy-wide contraction where production overwhelms demand temporarily. This is possible from external shocks (eg war, disaster) or persistent interference (eg Venezuela). Such a scenario is generally best resolved by solving the cause of the shock and doing everything to let the market clear. Most of the time this will be temporary and conditions will resolve, if not at the speed at which makes everything happy. I think the key thing here is that while there will be demand for other production at some point, it's necessarily a case of timing and there is likely to be a lag before new preferences are developed. The key here for future prosperity is not to borrow and spend on what is already not wanted, or to borrow and spend on pointless spending just for the sake of making money move.
The alternative is if an economy dropped to a new, lower level of production by choice, such as if everyone decided to lower their production and consumption and consciously not increase it again. You'd then get reversing economic growth, but then that would be the intention as results from people choosing less.
- lmm 11y ago> Such a scenario is generally best resolved by solving the cause of the shock and doing everything to let the market clear. Most of the time this will be temporary and conditions will resolve, if not at the speed at which makes everything happy. Maybe waiting would work, but that's no reason not to intervene if we think that intervention can bring us faster growth (even if this will only be temporarily faster growth until we "catch up" to currently unused production capacity). If consumption stimulus will help recovery (and I think it will, on Keynesian grounds) we should do it.