3 ms·
The most interesting paragraph of the article is: A coincidence is the most probable explanation for the surprising bumps in data from the collider, phy
by yk 11y ago
The most interesting paragraph of the article is:
A coincidence is the most probable explanation for the
surprising bumps in data from the collider, physicists
from the experiments cautioned, saying that a lot more
data was needed and would in fact soon be available.
So the data analysis is extremely complicated, in part because the number of tries depends on the correlation of datapoints. So if you look at 2 sigma signal in one hundred datapoints you expect to find 5 and even worse, if you try one hundred different measures then you expect 5 two-sigma events, if the measures are independent, which they are not in practice. So to calculate the number of tries is a highly non trivial business, which depends on exact knowledge what each desperate grad student did on his weekend.
So the nice thing about data from both CMS and ATLAS is, that we can fix this by asking, what is the probability that CMS sees something at the same energy and in the same channel as the most interesting ATLAS result. And as it turns out, it is a 2-sigma event. So there is just a one in twenty chance that this occurs by random chance. However one in twenty is not exactly a discovery, just the probability that the Niners win on Sunday.
Edit: Two things, first that analysis is of course very conservative and second even if it is a real effect, it may be just a presently badly understood background effect.