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I've thought about this a lot before actually. In my opinion, the last people with jobs will be mathematicians. If you think about everything that would be ha

I've thought about this a lot before actually. In my opinion, the last people with jobs will be mathematicians. If you think about everything that would be hardest to automate, I think deep mathematical theory would be the most difficult (automated theorem provers have their limits).

jonny_eh 11y ago
And chess players. Computers will never beat the best chess players.
- cko 11y ago
  I believe this is not true. There are chess engines with ELO ratings several hundred above Magnus Carlsen's.
- sinatra 11y ago
  A chess game is, in the end, a massive tree of all possible moves that can be made. Once computers are powerful enough to simulate all those possible moves, they can be sure of winning (or at least not lose) every game against a human starting from move #1. Just like tic-tac-toe.
- snowwrestler 11y ago
  Jonny is being sarcastic--computers have already beaten the best chess players. But I would point out that even though that is true, people still make money today selling chess sets and chess software and chess books and chess tournament tickets to other people. edit: clarity
  - cko 11y ago
    Ah, that explains it. Should have read parent post more carefully.
snowwrestler 11y ago
I think this misinterprets what the history of the industrial revolution teaches us. When steam shovels replaced humans, it's not that only steam-shovel-makers had jobs anymore. Instead, new humans who would have been employed breaking rocks, were instead free to go invent or work in entirely new industries. Entertainment, health care, and communications are industries that have exploded, in terms of economic value and employment, since the industrial revolution. One thing these industries have in common is that the value they provide is dependent on humans. People want to talk to people, see stories about people, and be healthy themselves. Technology enables these industries but technology does not replace the heart of the value. Maybe someday if AI evolves into artifical persons, then AI could take part in conversations, be entertained, and wish to prevent it's own death. But that is probably a long way off, and might never come. It's not like people are working on artificial personalities now. No one is working on car AI that will tell its owner to fuck off, it's watching Mad Men and doesn't feel like driving. The industrial approach to AI is to build better tools. Not to build new independent beings. Maybe it's possible that a tool can become a being, but we have no evidence at all that such a thing can happen. So the future of employment will probably not be unemployment, it will be different employment. Truck driver jobs will get replaced by truck-driving AI, but the children of truck drivers won't miss it. They'll grow up in that world, and work in some other new industry, like virtual world designer or personal medical consultant or artist or athlete.

jonny_eh 11y ago

And chess players. Computers will never beat the best chess players.

cko 11y ago
I believe this is not true. There are chess engines with ELO ratings several hundred above Magnus Carlsen's.
sinatra 11y ago
A chess game is, in the end, a massive tree of all possible moves that can be made. Once computers are powerful enough to simulate all those possible moves, they can be sure of winning (or at least not lose) every game against a human starting from move #1. Just like tic-tac-toe.
snowwrestler 11y ago
Jonny is being sarcastic--computers have already beaten the best chess players. But I would point out that even though that is true, people still make money today selling chess sets and chess software and chess books and chess tournament tickets to other people. edit: clarity
- cko 11y ago
  Ah, that explains it. Should have read parent post more carefully.

snowwrestler 11y ago

I think this misinterprets what the history of the industrial revolution teaches us. When steam shovels replaced humans, it's not that only steam-shovel-makers had jobs anymore. Instead, new humans who would have been employed breaking rocks, were instead free to go invent or work in entirely new industries. Entertainment, health care, and communications are industries that have exploded, in terms of economic value and employment, since the industrial revolution. One thing these industries have in common is that the value they provide is dependent on humans. People want to talk to people, see stories about people, and be healthy themselves. Technology enables these industries but technology does not replace the heart of the value. Maybe someday if AI evolves into artifical persons, then AI could take part in conversations, be entertained, and wish to prevent it's own death. But that is probably a long way off, and might never come. It's not like people are working on artificial personalities now. No one is working on car AI that will tell its owner to fuck off, it's watching Mad Men and doesn't feel like driving. The industrial approach to AI is to build better tools. Not to build new independent beings. Maybe it's possible that a tool can become a being, but we have no evidence at all that such a thing can happen. So the future of employment will probably not be unemployment, it will be different employment. Truck driver jobs will get replaced by truck-driving AI, but the children of truck drivers won't miss it. They'll grow up in that world, and work in some other new industry, like virtual world designer or personal medical consultant or artist or athlete.