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http://www.shadowstats.com/ http://www.shadowstats.com/
by fiatjaf 11y ago
http://www.shadowstats.com/ http://www.shadowstats.com/
- JoBrad 11y agoI think he's using BLS figures, but emphasizing the U-6 figure, for instance, instead of U-3 figure. I don't have a subscription to compare numbers, but is that correct?
- jjoonathan 11y agoHere's a description of what they say they are doing: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002696672 http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002696672 It seems reasonable. Of course, there's a cynical interpretation: they are integrating a small but positively biased noise source (e.g. due to groups that seem like they ought to add up but don't) to obtain and monetize a politically convenient quadratic. Hard to tell. EDIT: removed rant about the business model of this and similar publications EDIT2: replaced my own analysis with a link to one which is deeper and more concise
- Zigurd 11y agoThe key thing that this shows is that U3 has come down but U6 hasn't. In other words, U3 and U6 have diverged, and only one has improved. That's a pretty good reason to doubt what U3 is telling us.
- panarky 11y agoEgads, please don't spread unfounded conspiracy theories on HN. Shadowstats is to economics as 911 truthers are to law enforcement[1]. Besides, independent attempts to measure inflation correspond closely to official numbers in the US. Witness MIT's Billion Prices Project, for instance. [1] http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-21/the-inflation-truther-crank-index http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-21/the-inflati... [2] http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/ http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/
- fiatjaf 11y agoI don't know why you talk about independent attempts in plural. The one you cited is also the only example I've ever found. The key here is not that BLS is faking numbers, but using a strange methodology. MIT's project used roughly the same methodology.