I don't think that argument holds. Usually it's true, that if something hasn't lasted a long time, it likely won't last a long time in the future. But we live a

I don't think that argument holds. Usually it's true, that if something hasn't lasted a long time, it likely won't last a long time in the future. But we live at a quasi-special time, close to a boundary condition. There exists no software that has existed for 100 years, because software was invented sometime in the past hundred years. You can reductio ad absurdum that argument by saying, the week after the first software was written, that no pieces of software have lasted more than a week, and therefore very few pieces of software will last more than a week. So very few pieces of software have lasted 40 years, because very few pieces of software were written at least 40 years ago.