4 ms·

Hence the "call me crazy" :) However, I feel like all the chatter about Saudi behavior is short term (<5 years). Where are the articles discussing the 10-30 ye

by diafygi 11y ago

Hence the "call me crazy" :) However, I feel like all the chatter about Saudi behavior is short term (<5 years). Where are the articles discussing the 10-30 year outlook? It just seems like the oil industry is blissfully ignoring the whole "stranded assets" problem and focusing on short term strategy.

tristanj 11y ago
There are few articles on the 10-30 year outlook because it's been discussed so many times (see peak oil). No one wants to read old news. Anyway, one of the biggest flaws in your theory is how humanity will ween off oil, given the growth of renewables/electric cars. Oil is a finite resource. If there is a non-zero need for it, people will consume it and dip into this finite pool. As the pool depletes, prices will increase. So currently, what is oil used for, and do we expect to use oil in the future? There are numerous critical uses for oil. Oil derivatives are used to fertilize most of the food on the planet. Oil derivatives used to make almost all clothes sold today. Oil derivatives are used to make tires, shampoo, paint, soap, toothpaste, rubber, glasses, and 10s of thousands of other products. Many industrial solvents, essential for 20th century goods, are oil derivatives https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical . Here is a partial list of products made from petroleum http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm . There are just so many uses for oil. Oil is critical for modern American life. Many experts expect oil based products to be used by humanity for the next thousand years. Unless there is a drastic change in how oil is produced, petroleum will be consumed until all cost-effective reserves are depleted. The assumption the world "will only pull up half of what it already has in reserves"(!!) is naive.
- mrfusion 11y ago
  Aren't those other uses locking up the carbon though?
  - tristanj 11y ago
    In the end, these products end up thrown in a landfill or dumped in the environment. Over time, bacteria decompose them and convert some back to carbon dioxide. It's better to keep the oil in the ground rather than temporarily store it in some petroleum derivative.
- diafygi 11y ago
  Of course, oil is used for many other things, but a whopping 85% of oil is burned[1]. What happens when that 85% decreases? Grow plastic and fertilizer production by 6x to make up for it? As far as growth rate of alternatives, it's a classic underestimation of how exponential growth and disruptive technologies work. New stuff always gets here faster than the incumbents expect. Have any links to those 10-30 year outlooks from the past few years? [1]: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home
  - tristanj 11y ago
    You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing Saudi Arabia's motivations are based on climate change(?) and how we are only going to use "half of our current oil reserves"(?). Those are 10-30 year assumptions, which you can easily source online. You never explain how these are in touch with reality. Until you can justify both you come off as a conspiracy theorist.
    - diafygi 11y ago
      > You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing... Hmm, can't seem to find any. My opinions are mostly speculation, and I'm happy to be proven wrong as long as I learn something. Care to help me out with some links so I can read and learn?

by diafygi 11y ago

tristanj 11y ago

There are few articles on the 10-30 year outlook because it's been discussed so many times (see peak oil). No one wants to read old news. Anyway, one of the biggest flaws in your theory is how humanity will ween off oil, given the growth of renewables/electric cars. Oil is a finite resource. If there is a non-zero need for it, people will consume it and dip into this finite pool. As the pool depletes, prices will increase. So currently, what is oil used for, and do we expect to use oil in the future? There are numerous critical uses for oil. Oil derivatives are used to fertilize most of the food on the planet. Oil derivatives used to make almost all clothes sold today. Oil derivatives are used to make tires, shampoo, paint, soap, toothpaste, rubber, glasses, and 10s of thousands of other products. Many industrial solvents, essential for 20th century goods, are oil derivatives https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical . Here is a partial list of products made from petroleum http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm . There are just so many uses for oil. Oil is critical for modern American life. Many experts expect oil based products to be used by humanity for the next thousand years. Unless there is a drastic change in how oil is produced, petroleum will be consumed until all cost-effective reserves are depleted. The assumption the world "will only pull up half of what it already has in reserves"(!!) is naive.

mrfusion 11y ago
Aren't those other uses locking up the carbon though?
- tristanj 11y ago
  In the end, these products end up thrown in a landfill or dumped in the environment. Over time, bacteria decompose them and convert some back to carbon dioxide. It's better to keep the oil in the ground rather than temporarily store it in some petroleum derivative.
diafygi 11y ago
Of course, oil is used for many other things, but a whopping 85% of oil is burned[1]. What happens when that 85% decreases? Grow plastic and fertilizer production by 6x to make up for it? As far as growth rate of alternatives, it's a classic underestimation of how exponential growth and disruptive technologies work. New stuff always gets here faster than the incumbents expect. Have any links to those 10-30 year outlooks from the past few years? [1]: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home
- tristanj 11y ago
  You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing Saudi Arabia's motivations are based on climate change(?) and how we are only going to use "half of our current oil reserves"(?). Those are 10-30 year assumptions, which you can easily source online. You never explain how these are in touch with reality. Until you can justify both you come off as a conspiracy theorist.
  - diafygi 11y ago
    > You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing... Hmm, can't seem to find any. My opinions are mostly speculation, and I'm happy to be proven wrong as long as I learn something. Care to help me out with some links so I can read and learn?