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This does not match any of the Saudi press statements on the oil situation. The Saudi position and their motivations have been consistent for months with thousa

This does not match any of the Saudi press statements on the oil situation. The Saudi position and their motivations have been consistent for months with thousands of articles documenting this. In summary, publicly, they are not reducing oil output because in the previous oil crisis, they cut production and suffered heavily vs those who did not. The private reason they are still pumping is that they intend to bankrupt/destroy the US Shale industry. They've done an excellent job at this. These articles with inside information never mention "climate change" or "renewables" as the reason for the situation. Unless you can show sources showing the price change is because of climate change, this just a delusional conspiracy theory.

tomp 11y ago
Why would you assume a market actor is being straightforward about their strategy, especially if others being aware of this strategy would put them at a disadvantage? Deception is a competitive strategy!
- tristanj 11y ago
  I never made this assumption.
diafygi 11y ago
Hence the "call me crazy" :) However, I feel like all the chatter about Saudi behavior is short term (<5 years). Where are the articles discussing the 10-30 year outlook? It just seems like the oil industry is blissfully ignoring the whole "stranded assets" problem and focusing on short term strategy.
- tristanj 11y ago
  There are few articles on the 10-30 year outlook because it's been discussed so many times (see peak oil). No one wants to read old news. Anyway, one of the biggest flaws in your theory is how humanity will ween off oil, given the growth of renewables/electric cars. Oil is a finite resource. If there is a non-zero need for it, people will consume it and dip into this finite pool. As the pool depletes, prices will increase. So currently, what is oil used for, and do we expect to use oil in the future? There are numerous critical uses for oil. Oil derivatives are used to fertilize most of the food on the planet. Oil derivatives used to make almost all clothes sold today. Oil derivatives are used to make tires, shampoo, paint, soap, toothpaste, rubber, glasses, and 10s of thousands of other products. Many industrial solvents, essential for 20th century goods, are oil derivatives https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical . Here is a partial list of products made from petroleum http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm . There are just so many uses for oil. Oil is critical for modern American life. Many experts expect oil based products to be used by humanity for the next thousand years. Unless there is a drastic change in how oil is produced, petroleum will be consumed until all cost-effective reserves are depleted. The assumption the world "will only pull up half of what it already has in reserves"(!!) is naive.
  - mrfusion 11y ago
    Aren't those other uses locking up the carbon though?
    - tristanj 11y ago
      In the end, these products end up thrown in a landfill or dumped in the environment. Over time, bacteria decompose them and convert some back to carbon dioxide. It's better to keep the oil in the ground rather than temporarily store it in some petroleum derivative.
  - diafygi 11y ago
    Of course, oil is used for many other things, but a whopping 85% of oil is burned[1]. What happens when that 85% decreases? Grow plastic and fertilizer production by 6x to make up for it? As far as growth rate of alternatives, it's a classic underestimation of how exponential growth and disruptive technologies work. New stuff always gets here faster than the incumbents expect. Have any links to those 10-30 year outlooks from the past few years? [1]: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home
    - tristanj 11y ago
      You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing Saudi Arabia's motivations are based on climate change(?) and how we are only going to use "half of our current oil reserves"(?). Those are 10-30 year assumptions, which you can easily source online. You never explain how these are in touch with reality. Until you can justify both you come off as a conspiracy theorist.
      - diafygi 11y ago
        > You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing... Hmm, can't seem to find any. My opinions are mostly speculation, and I'm happy to be proven wrong as long as I learn something. Care to help me out with some links so I can read and learn?

tomp 11y ago

Why would you assume a market actor is being straightforward about their strategy, especially if others being aware of this strategy would put them at a disadvantage? Deception is a competitive strategy!

tristanj 11y ago
I never made this assumption.

diafygi 11y ago

Hence the "call me crazy" :) However, I feel like all the chatter about Saudi behavior is short term (<5 years). Where are the articles discussing the 10-30 year outlook? It just seems like the oil industry is blissfully ignoring the whole "stranded assets" problem and focusing on short term strategy.

tristanj 11y ago
There are few articles on the 10-30 year outlook because it's been discussed so many times (see peak oil). No one wants to read old news. Anyway, one of the biggest flaws in your theory is how humanity will ween off oil, given the growth of renewables/electric cars. Oil is a finite resource. If there is a non-zero need for it, people will consume it and dip into this finite pool. As the pool depletes, prices will increase. So currently, what is oil used for, and do we expect to use oil in the future? There are numerous critical uses for oil. Oil derivatives are used to fertilize most of the food on the planet. Oil derivatives used to make almost all clothes sold today. Oil derivatives are used to make tires, shampoo, paint, soap, toothpaste, rubber, glasses, and 10s of thousands of other products. Many industrial solvents, essential for 20th century goods, are oil derivatives https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical . Here is a partial list of products made from petroleum http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm . There are just so many uses for oil. Oil is critical for modern American life. Many experts expect oil based products to be used by humanity for the next thousand years. Unless there is a drastic change in how oil is produced, petroleum will be consumed until all cost-effective reserves are depleted. The assumption the world "will only pull up half of what it already has in reserves"(!!) is naive.
- mrfusion 11y ago
  Aren't those other uses locking up the carbon though?
  - tristanj 11y ago
    In the end, these products end up thrown in a landfill or dumped in the environment. Over time, bacteria decompose them and convert some back to carbon dioxide. It's better to keep the oil in the ground rather than temporarily store it in some petroleum derivative.
- diafygi 11y ago
  Of course, oil is used for many other things, but a whopping 85% of oil is burned[1]. What happens when that 85% decreases? Grow plastic and fertilizer production by 6x to make up for it? As far as growth rate of alternatives, it's a classic underestimation of how exponential growth and disruptive technologies work. New stuff always gets here faster than the incumbents expect. Have any links to those 10-30 year outlooks from the past few years? [1]: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home
  - tristanj 11y ago
    You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing Saudi Arabia's motivations are based on climate change(?) and how we are only going to use "half of our current oil reserves"(?). Those are 10-30 year assumptions, which you can easily source online. You never explain how these are in touch with reality. Until you can justify both you come off as a conspiracy theorist.
    - diafygi 11y ago
      > You should already have those links, because in your grandparent post you're arguing... Hmm, can't seem to find any. My opinions are mostly speculation, and I'm happy to be proven wrong as long as I learn something. Care to help me out with some links so I can read and learn?