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>Chinese Soda Fallcy I've never heard of this particular logical fallacy and search engines are no help. Can you explain?
by chromaton 11y ago
>Chinese Soda Fallcy
I've never heard of this particular logical fallacy and search engines are no help. Can you explain?
- thrownaway2424 11y agoHrmm, I did find exactly one instance of the phrase on Google. I'm surprised, too. As it was explained to me, a Chinese Soda Fallacy is a business plan wherein you stand to make a dollar selling a Coke to everybody in China. You will make a billion dollars! Except that the market-clearing price for Coke in China isn't a dollar, and not everybody wants one, and so on and so forth. The idea that you will make a dime every time anyone drives a mile strikes me as perfectly congruent with that fallacy. Edit: This article seems to address the topic without using the phrase. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204830304574133501980701202 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240529702048303045741335... A COKE FOR EVERY KID IN CHINA This gambit rests its case on a plethora of secondary data to show how large and fast-growing a market is. The plan then makes a heroic leap and assumes that the new venture will grab X percent of that market it could be 1%, 10%, 30% or whatever. "Surely," the plan argues, "with the large number of customers in our market, we'll easily get enough. We only need a small fraction to have a very nice business."
- mikeash 11y agoSounds like the more generalized equivalent of the typical software fallacy that goes like, "There are umpty million iPhone users, if just 1% of them buys our app...."
- jacquesm 11y agoI think you're looking for the term 'Chinese Math': http://www.fastcompany.com/1710460/chinese-math-or-1-mistake-cripples-100-entrepreneurs http://www.fastcompany.com/1710460/chinese-math-or-1-mistake...