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My offhand anecdata suggests that the bulk of traffic jams are caused by people driving older cars. There is a little-understood cosmic force that causes cars

My offhand anecdata suggests that the bulk of traffic jams are caused by people driving older cars. There is a little-understood cosmic force that causes cars to stop running in proportion to how critical the section of roadway is to regional transportation and in proportion to the age of the car. 1985 Nissan Sentra in a tunnel? Guaranteed to burst into flames. More seriously, there are obvious reasons why older cars are more likely to just stop running, or to be involved in a fatal accident that snarls traffic. I think the tipping point is not going to come from the deployment of self-driving cars, but will arrive instead when the fleet of junkers nears eradication.

sokoloff 11y ago
It's not obvious to me why older cars are more likely to be in fatal accidents. Even though my '66 Mustang is wildly less safe in many ways, it also gets driven with much more care than what I see around me.
- thrownaway2424 11y ago
  There's probably a bathtub-shapes curve of driver care. I'm sure that drivers of classic American sports cars, at this distance from their dates of manufacture, are taking due caution. People with new cars all have ABS, stability control, and the other bells and whistles. But people who are driving the 1994 Dodge Colt were probably forced into it by financial circumstances. They don't have an investment to protect, they don't have any safety features, and they probably don't even have working shock absorbers or roadworthy tires. I don't know if I am alone in this perception, but it has been built up over many years of being stuck in traffic on the Bay Bridge. What kinds of cars to you see on fire, on the shoulder, or being pushed off the bridge by those Caltrans wreckers? Old ones. Second-hand cop cars bought at auction. Old Japanese compact pickups with 2 tons of concrete in the beds. Cars that were going 75 MPH on emergency spare tires. Cars with no outside mirrors? WTF? I ride the bus, so I'm biased. I think if your car breaks down or you get into an accident on the Bay Bridge you should pay a million-dollar fine and have your car and license seized permanently.
  - cpitman 11y ago
    Do you mean they push wrecked cars down the length of the bridge to get them off? Or are they literally in such a rush that they just chuck it off the side of the bridge? Because that would be awesome.
    - Animats 11y ago
      If it can roll and brake, a CALTRANS vehicle with a strong push bumper will push it somewhere out of the way. If not, they have to tow.
  - afarrell 11y ago
    > But people who are driving the 1994 Dodge Colt were probably forced into it by financial circumstances. I would suspect that these people have a very costly (to them) investment to protect. However, they are probably more fatigued and cognitively-taxed.

sokoloff 11y ago

It's not obvious to me why older cars are more likely to be in fatal accidents. Even though my '66 Mustang is wildly less safe in many ways, it also gets driven with much more care than what I see around me.

thrownaway2424 11y ago
There's probably a bathtub-shapes curve of driver care. I'm sure that drivers of classic American sports cars, at this distance from their dates of manufacture, are taking due caution. People with new cars all have ABS, stability control, and the other bells and whistles. But people who are driving the 1994 Dodge Colt were probably forced into it by financial circumstances. They don't have an investment to protect, they don't have any safety features, and they probably don't even have working shock absorbers or roadworthy tires. I don't know if I am alone in this perception, but it has been built up over many years of being stuck in traffic on the Bay Bridge. What kinds of cars to you see on fire, on the shoulder, or being pushed off the bridge by those Caltrans wreckers? Old ones. Second-hand cop cars bought at auction. Old Japanese compact pickups with 2 tons of concrete in the beds. Cars that were going 75 MPH on emergency spare tires. Cars with no outside mirrors? WTF? I ride the bus, so I'm biased. I think if your car breaks down or you get into an accident on the Bay Bridge you should pay a million-dollar fine and have your car and license seized permanently.
- cpitman 11y ago
  Do you mean they push wrecked cars down the length of the bridge to get them off? Or are they literally in such a rush that they just chuck it off the side of the bridge? Because that would be awesome.
  - Animats 11y ago
    If it can roll and brake, a CALTRANS vehicle with a strong push bumper will push it somewhere out of the way. If not, they have to tow.
- afarrell 11y ago
  > But people who are driving the 1994 Dodge Colt were probably forced into it by financial circumstances. I would suspect that these people have a very costly (to them) investment to protect. However, they are probably more fatigued and cognitively-taxed.