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I'm not sure what you mean. If the current risk of autism in a child is 1 in 20, then it means that if the mother takes anti-depressants, the risk then becomes
by steven2012 11y ago
I'm not sure what you mean. If the current risk of autism in a child is 1 in 20, then it means that if the mother takes anti-depressants, the risk then becomes 1.87 in 20.
- TeMPOraL 11y agoHe probably means that without a reference point, it may as well be a shift from 1 in 20 000 000 to 1.87 in 20 000 000. Or, a shift from 1 in 5 to 4 in 5, which is how an average Joe or Jane will understand such article. Running a headline "Some Common X doubles the risk of Something Very Bad" without giving the baseline risk of Something Very Bad is just fear-mongering.
- DanBC 11y agoNo one in the general population can do that calculation. Try it, go and talk to people. Or read Gerd Gigerenzer's book Reckoning with Risk http://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-Risk-Learning-Live-Uncertainty/dp/0140297863 http://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-Risk-Learning-Live-Uncertain... https://plus.maths.org/content/reckoning-risk https://plus.maths.org/content/reckoning-risk And, as Temporal says, without knowing the base rate (am I raising my risk from 1 in 100,000 or from 1 in 1,000?) it provides very little useful information.