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Market sizing is a Fermi problem - that doesn't mean it's not quantitative or even that you don't need to think about it, it just means a back of a napkin calcu
by tryitnow 11y ago
Market sizing is a Fermi problem - that doesn't mean it's not quantitative or even that you don't need to think about it, it just means a back of a napkin calculation will do (to a first approximation). It's more important how you think through the problem of market sizing than how precise the end number is.
The thought exercise will reveal weaknesses in your strategy.
- tankenmate 11y agoThe corollary of that of course is that if a potential investor keeps asking the question it means they have a nagging feeling there is a weakness in your strategy. To quote Robert De Niro from Ronin; "If there's doubt then there is no doubt."
- austinjp 11y agoI suspect the strength comes in period-on-period reassessment. Make predictions, test them, and update the model. A pseudo-Bayesian approach. Precision is a moving window in an unknown universe.