> I think the larger lesson here is that confidence is a good thing, but relying on it solely can fail miserably as a substitute for having actual knowledge abo

> I think the larger lesson here is that confidence is a good thing, but relying on it solely can fail miserably as a substitute for having actual knowledge about something. That's exactly what the article is saying, if you follow it to the end: "What matters is that one's confidence be properly calibrated - neither too high, not too low. Very few of us achieve this." The point is that without proper confidence, there's no chance of success. With proper confidence, there's at least a chance. Hence the parallel to the "faint heart never won fair lady" aphorism: you're never guaranteed success in love without confidence, but you're guaranteed a shot you never otherwise would have had.