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> Improvements in AI aren't linear, though This is a point everyone makes, but it hasn't been proven anywhere. Progress in AI as a field has always been a cycl
by argonaut 11y ago
> Improvements in AI aren't linear, though
This is a point everyone makes, but it hasn't been proven anywhere. Progress in AI as a field has always been a cycle of hype and cool-down.
Edit (reply to below). Talk about self-bootstrapping AIs, etc. is just speculation.
- skndr 11y agoSure, though you can't extrapolate future technological improvements from past performance (that's what makes investing in tech difficult). Just as one discovery enables many, human-level AI that can do its own AI research could superlinearly bootstrap its intelligence. AI safety addresses the risk of bootstrapped superintelligence indifferent to humans.
- eli_gottlieb 11y ago>Just as one discovery enables many, human-level AI that can do its own AI research could superlinearly bootstrap its intelligence. Of course, that assumes the return-on-investment curve for "bootstrapping its own intelligence" is linear or superlinear. If it's logarithmic or something other than "intelligence" (which is a word loaded with magical thinking if there ever was one!) is the limiting factor on reasoning, no go.
- mcphage 11y agoHype then cool-down is a sine wave... See, not linear at all!
- eli_gottlieb 11y agoI don't see why a program needs to be a self-improving Charles Stross monster to have an impact on the world, for good or ill.