4 ms·

The far more significant cause of the Great Recession was outright fraud. Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfB

by pktgen 11y ago

The far more significant cause of the Great Recession was outright fraud. Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU and other videos featuring William Black (a former bank regulator from the S&L crisis days).

tedsanders 11y ago
This is not a consensus view by macroeconomists. While fraud may have been important, and possibly more important than macroeconomists believe, I think you do a disservice to the HN reading community by not acknowledging the vast body of experts who have already tried to answer the question of what caused the Great Recession. It's a very difficult question to answer convincingly, given that we cannot run multiple trials to see any counterfactual scenarios. I think any attempt at an answer should be presented with humility and caution and nuance. Wikipedia discusses a bunch of factors related to the Great Recession, correctly mentioning that different economists place different weight on them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession Here's a video by Tyler Cowen that discussions the Great Recession in terms of four DIFFERENT macroeconomic models: http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-recession/ http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-rece... Lastly, I'll say that even talking about causation generally is difficult. If someone buys a gun and shoots me, what was the cause of me getting shot? If guns had been outlawed, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it Congress's fault? If the shooter hadn't pulled the trigger, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it the shooter's fault? If I hadn't failed to jump out of the way, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it my fault? Defining causality when there are many serially dependent steps is not easy. So when someone asks, why did the Great Recession happen, it's hard to even know what the question means. Feynman has a famous interview segment where he talks about the difficulty of answering 'why' questions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs
- khaolak 11y ago
  > If guns had been outlawed, I wouldn't have been shot. Murder is also illegal. In your hypothetical scenario, you're assuming the shooter was willing to break the law to murder you, but would not have been willing to use an unlicensed gun to do so?
  - tedsanders 11y ago
    I think you understand the point I'm trying to make, so please be charitable. Let's assume this shooting was one of those marginal cases that would have been prevented by outlawing guns. Of course outlawing guns does not prevent all shootings.

by pktgen 11y ago

tedsanders 11y ago

This is not a consensus view by macroeconomists. While fraud may have been important, and possibly more important than macroeconomists believe, I think you do a disservice to the HN reading community by not acknowledging the vast body of experts who have already tried to answer the question of what caused the Great Recession. It's a very difficult question to answer convincingly, given that we cannot run multiple trials to see any counterfactual scenarios. I think any attempt at an answer should be presented with humility and caution and nuance. Wikipedia discusses a bunch of factors related to the Great Recession, correctly mentioning that different economists place different weight on them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession Here's a video by Tyler Cowen that discussions the Great Recession in terms of four DIFFERENT macroeconomic models: http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-recession/ http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-rece... Lastly, I'll say that even talking about causation generally is difficult. If someone buys a gun and shoots me, what was the cause of me getting shot? If guns had been outlawed, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it Congress's fault? If the shooter hadn't pulled the trigger, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it the shooter's fault? If I hadn't failed to jump out of the way, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it my fault? Defining causality when there are many serially dependent steps is not easy. So when someone asks, why did the Great Recession happen, it's hard to even know what the question means. Feynman has a famous interview segment where he talks about the difficulty of answering 'why' questions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs

khaolak 11y ago
> If guns had been outlawed, I wouldn't have been shot. Murder is also illegal. In your hypothetical scenario, you're assuming the shooter was willing to break the law to murder you, but would not have been willing to use an unlicensed gun to do so?
- tedsanders 11y ago
  I think you understand the point I'm trying to make, so please be charitable. Let's assume this shooting was one of those marginal cases that would have been prevented by outlawing guns. Of course outlawing guns does not prevent all shootings.