6 ms·

I am feeling sad about this. The USA economy is clearly weak by any of its own measures, and there is the likelihood that weakness in Europe and China will furt

I am feeling sad about this. The USA economy is clearly weak by any of its own measures, and there is the likelihood that weakness in Europe and China will further weaken the USA. Inflation has been subdued for years and has recently declined further, so there is absolutely no justification for a rate hike. Labor participation among prime age adults remains lower than before the recession. And yet the Fed seems absolutely determined to raise rates, even though there is no conceivable good that can come from this action. Edit: Please see: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/economists-dont-know-what-they-are-talking-about.html http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/eco...

Alupis 11y ago
What more, the Fed (Yellen) keeps teasing a rate hike every few weeks or so, and has been doing so for months, only to never follow-through. Every time they tease it then don't act, the market takes a plunge.
- jobu 11y ago
  > Every time they tease it then don't act, the market takes a plunge. Pretty sure the order of events is flipped. Last few fed meetings have been preceded by one sort of terrible economic news or another. (Last time it was the China slowdown.) They've been indicating for a while that they would raise rates sometime in the second half of 2015, but it's been pushed off because raising rates when markets are weak could instigate an economic meltdown.
  - codexon 11y ago
    Before I thought it should be obvious that the stock market would go up when rates drop, and vice versa. But I remember one day about 1-2 months ago, the market plunged after the Feds said they might hold off on raising the rates and there wasn't any new bad economic news for a week. All over the news, pundits blamed it as a sign of weakness because the Feds didn't ignore the stock market chaos. And now the stock market is dropping again because a rate increase is becoming likely again. Whether or not rates go up or down, the direction of the stock market seems to be controlled by emotion or big investors that have access to secret information. Retail investors like us seem to be powerless and doomed to just hold our stocks while waiting for a recovery that could take decades to occur.
- harmegido 11y ago
  You've got that backwards - a rate hike has a downward impact on equities, because they are priced in dollars.
  - Alupis 11y ago
    Yes, it looks like my observations were a little off. What looks more accurate is Fed teases rate hike, market plunges for un-related reasons, so Fed doesn't go through with the rate hike... and the cycle repeats.
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  > Every time they tease it then don't act, the market takes a plunge. The market keeps plunging on expectations, and then rebounding after they don't raise interest rates.
fweespeech 11y ago
> Inflation has been subdued for years and has recently declined further The reality is the free ride on inflation can't last forever and if the Fed fails to predict the future it can get pretty grim. Similarly, there are a number of bubble like portents such as resource prices that are showing an excess of capital is being malinvested. Its just one of those situations where you have to hope the professionals predict the future correctly. > Labor participation among prime age adults remains lower than before the recession. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS11300060 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS11300060 Its pretty clear the 90s it leveled off and now its dropping. It peaked 15+ years ago. It has nothing to do with the recession but rather, frankly. I know it seems that way from the media but the fact is it leveled off ~25 years ago and began to drop ~15 years ago. The difference b/t the highest point and 1990 is very similar to normal noise.
- clock_tower 11y ago
  From that chart and from what you're saying, it sounds like the labor-force-participation element isn't necessarily bad -- although we certainly do have malaise from other sources. (In particular, there's how the dot-com bubble's about to burst again, for the second time in a generation. "Learned nothing and forgotten nothing," that's us...)
- rjpower9000 11y ago
  >The reality is the free ride on inflation can't last forever and if the Fed fails to predict the future it can get pretty grim. >Similarly, there are a number of bubble like portents such as resource prices that are showing an excess of capital is being malinvested. The thing is it's really easy for the Fed to slow the economy down, it's a lot harder to get it started again. So it makes sense for them to wait until they actually start seeing inflation before they decide to raise rates. It's hard to say whether the mal-investment is due to the current monetary policy or the lack of better investment options in a bad economy. FWIW, the participation rate for the wider population shows a more significant drop around 2009: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART This might be due to early retirement, or more young people not finding work. I don't research this data much.
jobu 11y ago
Many blame the Great Recession on Greenspan because he kept rates too low and over-inflated the housing market. It's almost impossible to judge the timing of these things beforehand, but 0% interest (free money), and Quantitative Easing (printing money) is bound to cause problems if it continues too long.
- pktgen 11y ago
  The far more significant cause of the Great Recession was outright fraud. Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU and other videos featuring William Black (a former bank regulator from the S&L crisis days).
  - tedsanders 11y ago
    This is not a consensus view by macroeconomists. While fraud may have been important, and possibly more important than macroeconomists believe, I think you do a disservice to the HN reading community by not acknowledging the vast body of experts who have already tried to answer the question of what caused the Great Recession. It's a very difficult question to answer convincingly, given that we cannot run multiple trials to see any counterfactual scenarios. I think any attempt at an answer should be presented with humility and caution and nuance. Wikipedia discusses a bunch of factors related to the Great Recession, correctly mentioning that different economists place different weight on them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession Here's a video by Tyler Cowen that discussions the Great Recession in terms of four DIFFERENT macroeconomic models: http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-recession/ http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-rece... Lastly, I'll say that even talking about causation generally is difficult. If someone buys a gun and shoots me, what was the cause of me getting shot? If guns had been outlawed, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it Congress's fault? If the shooter hadn't pulled the trigger, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it the shooter's fault? If I hadn't failed to jump out of the way, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it my fault? Defining causality when there are many serially dependent steps is not easy. So when someone asks, why did the Great Recession happen, it's hard to even know what the question means. Feynman has a famous interview segment where he talks about the difficulty of answering 'why' questions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs
tedsanders 11y ago
>The USA economy is clearly weak by any of its own measures I'm sympathetic to your greater point about keeping interest rates low, but it's simply not true that the US economy is weak by any of its own measures. The US economy is strong by many of its own measures: US GDP is at its all-time high, $18 trillion. It has NEVER been higher. The S&P 500 is near its all-time high, sitting around $2,000. Before last year, the S&P 500 had NEVER been higher. For the past six quarters, US real GDP has been growing at about 3.0% annualized, far faster than the historical 1.9% annualized that the US experienced from 1860 to 2007 (a time period over which technology improved massively and the US became a global superpower). US unemployment is down to 5%, back to the levels during the pre-recession boom. By many, many measures, today's US economy is the strongest economy that humankind has ever seen. Certainly, the US economy is not as strong as it could be. And certainly, it would be nice if more people were employed. But overall, the US economy is doing better than ever.
- Shivetya 11y ago
  the unemployment is what the government makes it out to be, the number employed is a better measure. when you look at the number who could hold jobs or full time jobs where they do not the number doesn't look that great (this means, avoid that silly number some like to throw out of ninety plus million as that includes retirees and college kids)
  - rayiner 11y ago
    I'm not really convinced by this argument. If more families than ever can send their kids to college (I.e. four year vacation), instead of working during that time, how is that a bad thing? Is it better if disabled people are trying to support themselves instead of being out if the workforce and being in SSIDI?
    - SilasX 11y ago
      One word: Arms-race. If everyone has to signal what percentile of competence they are, and you offer cheap loans to people who provide a certain signal, then everyone will start having to buying the service that send that signal. People are collectively blowing a lot of resources to signal the same thing (and irrespective of how much they value having such a vacation). Scott Alexander provides a great exposition of that dynamic in "Against Tulip Subsidies": http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies...
irln 11y ago
The US economy has been weak despite all of the stimulus. Respectfully, why would continuing policies that are meant to counteract emergency conditions help?
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  The fact that monetary stimulus (a fairly weak tool; fiscal stimulus, which is Congress' domain, is the stronger tool) is insufficient to move things as far in the right direction as desired does not imply that backing off on monetary stimulus would fail to move things in the wrong direction.
  - irln 11y ago
    Not sure I follow? The Fed has added +/- 3.6 Trillion to their balance sheet since the start of the great recession.[1] Excess reserves for banks went from 0 to +/- $2.5 Trillion during the same period. [2] The FED arguably brought us back from the brink but I would think that those emergency measures are for emergencies not to be used because things are "weak" but when things are on the "abyss". One person's opinion. [1] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WALCL https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WALCL [2] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNS https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNS
- TheCowboy 11y ago
  Stimulus isn't a switch you flip on and off. The idea that if you flip it, and the economy doesn't take off then stimulus doesn't work, is not a sound idea. You can have stimulus in different forms, different points of time, and different levels. So why would continuing policies meant to help? Because discontinuing them would have a significant detrimental impact. Based on this point of view, stimulus and monetary policy have no effect, so the financial crisis should have been left to run its course. That would have been a terrible outcome, and we would be worse of than we are now.
  - irln 11y ago
    My point is continuing extraordinary measures for seven years is contra to what these measures were initially articulated to address (e.g. emergency conditions != weak conditions).

Alupis 11y ago

What more, the Fed (Yellen) keeps teasing a rate hike every few weeks or so, and has been doing so for months, only to never follow-through. Every time they tease it then don't act, the market takes a plunge.

jobu 11y ago
> Every time they tease it then don't act, the market takes a plunge. Pretty sure the order of events is flipped. Last few fed meetings have been preceded by one sort of terrible economic news or another. (Last time it was the China slowdown.) They've been indicating for a while that they would raise rates sometime in the second half of 2015, but it's been pushed off because raising rates when markets are weak could instigate an economic meltdown.
- codexon 11y ago
  Before I thought it should be obvious that the stock market would go up when rates drop, and vice versa. But I remember one day about 1-2 months ago, the market plunged after the Feds said they might hold off on raising the rates and there wasn't any new bad economic news for a week. All over the news, pundits blamed it as a sign of weakness because the Feds didn't ignore the stock market chaos. And now the stock market is dropping again because a rate increase is becoming likely again. Whether or not rates go up or down, the direction of the stock market seems to be controlled by emotion or big investors that have access to secret information. Retail investors like us seem to be powerless and doomed to just hold our stocks while waiting for a recovery that could take decades to occur.
harmegido 11y ago
You've got that backwards - a rate hike has a downward impact on equities, because they are priced in dollars.
- Alupis 11y ago
  Yes, it looks like my observations were a little off. What looks more accurate is Fed teases rate hike, market plunges for un-related reasons, so Fed doesn't go through with the rate hike... and the cycle repeats.
dragonwriter 11y ago
> Every time they tease it then don't act, the market takes a plunge. The market keeps plunging on expectations, and then rebounding after they don't raise interest rates.

fweespeech 11y ago

> Inflation has been subdued for years and has recently declined further The reality is the free ride on inflation can't last forever and if the Fed fails to predict the future it can get pretty grim. Similarly, there are a number of bubble like portents such as resource prices that are showing an excess of capital is being malinvested. Its just one of those situations where you have to hope the professionals predict the future correctly. > Labor participation among prime age adults remains lower than before the recession. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS11300060 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS11300060 Its pretty clear the 90s it leveled off and now its dropping. It peaked 15+ years ago. It has nothing to do with the recession but rather, frankly. I know it seems that way from the media but the fact is it leveled off ~25 years ago and began to drop ~15 years ago. The difference b/t the highest point and 1990 is very similar to normal noise.

clock_tower 11y ago
From that chart and from what you're saying, it sounds like the labor-force-participation element isn't necessarily bad -- although we certainly do have malaise from other sources. (In particular, there's how the dot-com bubble's about to burst again, for the second time in a generation. "Learned nothing and forgotten nothing," that's us...)
rjpower9000 11y ago
>The reality is the free ride on inflation can't last forever and if the Fed fails to predict the future it can get pretty grim. >Similarly, there are a number of bubble like portents such as resource prices that are showing an excess of capital is being malinvested. The thing is it's really easy for the Fed to slow the economy down, it's a lot harder to get it started again. So it makes sense for them to wait until they actually start seeing inflation before they decide to raise rates. It's hard to say whether the mal-investment is due to the current monetary policy or the lack of better investment options in a bad economy. FWIW, the participation rate for the wider population shows a more significant drop around 2009: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART This might be due to early retirement, or more young people not finding work. I don't research this data much.

jobu 11y ago

Many blame the Great Recession on Greenspan because he kept rates too low and over-inflated the housing market. It's almost impossible to judge the timing of these things beforehand, but 0% interest (free money), and Quantitative Easing (printing money) is bound to cause problems if it continues too long.

pktgen 11y ago
The far more significant cause of the Great Recession was outright fraud. Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClfBxWPkBKU and other videos featuring William Black (a former bank regulator from the S&L crisis days).
- tedsanders 11y ago
  This is not a consensus view by macroeconomists. While fraud may have been important, and possibly more important than macroeconomists believe, I think you do a disservice to the HN reading community by not acknowledging the vast body of experts who have already tried to answer the question of what caused the Great Recession. It's a very difficult question to answer convincingly, given that we cannot run multiple trials to see any counterfactual scenarios. I think any attempt at an answer should be presented with humility and caution and nuance. Wikipedia discusses a bunch of factors related to the Great Recession, correctly mentioning that different economists place different weight on them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession Here's a video by Tyler Cowen that discussions the Great Recession in terms of four DIFFERENT macroeconomic models: http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-recession/ http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/explaining-the-great-rece... Lastly, I'll say that even talking about causation generally is difficult. If someone buys a gun and shoots me, what was the cause of me getting shot? If guns had been outlawed, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it Congress's fault? If the shooter hadn't pulled the trigger, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it the shooter's fault? If I hadn't failed to jump out of the way, I wouldn't have been shot. Is it my fault? Defining causality when there are many serially dependent steps is not easy. So when someone asks, why did the Great Recession happen, it's hard to even know what the question means. Feynman has a famous interview segment where he talks about the difficulty of answering 'why' questions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp4dpeJVDxs

tedsanders 11y ago

>The USA economy is clearly weak by any of its own measures I'm sympathetic to your greater point about keeping interest rates low, but it's simply not true that the US economy is weak by any of its own measures. The US economy is strong by many of its own measures: US GDP is at its all-time high, $18 trillion. It has NEVER been higher. The S&P 500 is near its all-time high, sitting around $2,000. Before last year, the S&P 500 had NEVER been higher. For the past six quarters, US real GDP has been growing at about 3.0% annualized, far faster than the historical 1.9% annualized that the US experienced from 1860 to 2007 (a time period over which technology improved massively and the US became a global superpower). US unemployment is down to 5%, back to the levels during the pre-recession boom. By many, many measures, today's US economy is the strongest economy that humankind has ever seen. Certainly, the US economy is not as strong as it could be. And certainly, it would be nice if more people were employed. But overall, the US economy is doing better than ever.

Shivetya 11y ago
the unemployment is what the government makes it out to be, the number employed is a better measure. when you look at the number who could hold jobs or full time jobs where they do not the number doesn't look that great (this means, avoid that silly number some like to throw out of ninety plus million as that includes retirees and college kids)
- rayiner 11y ago
  I'm not really convinced by this argument. If more families than ever can send their kids to college (I.e. four year vacation), instead of working during that time, how is that a bad thing? Is it better if disabled people are trying to support themselves instead of being out if the workforce and being in SSIDI?
  - SilasX 11y ago
    One word: Arms-race. If everyone has to signal what percentile of competence they are, and you offer cheap loans to people who provide a certain signal, then everyone will start having to buying the service that send that signal. People are collectively blowing a lot of resources to signal the same thing (and irrespective of how much they value having such a vacation). Scott Alexander provides a great exposition of that dynamic in "Against Tulip Subsidies": http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies...

irln 11y ago

The US economy has been weak despite all of the stimulus. Respectfully, why would continuing policies that are meant to counteract emergency conditions help?

dragonwriter 11y ago
The fact that monetary stimulus (a fairly weak tool; fiscal stimulus, which is Congress' domain, is the stronger tool) is insufficient to move things as far in the right direction as desired does not imply that backing off on monetary stimulus would fail to move things in the wrong direction.
- irln 11y ago
  Not sure I follow? The Fed has added +/- 3.6 Trillion to their balance sheet since the start of the great recession.[1] Excess reserves for banks went from 0 to +/- $2.5 Trillion during the same period. [2] The FED arguably brought us back from the brink but I would think that those emergency measures are for emergencies not to be used because things are "weak" but when things are on the "abyss". One person's opinion. [1] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WALCL https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WALCL [2] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNS https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNS
TheCowboy 11y ago
Stimulus isn't a switch you flip on and off. The idea that if you flip it, and the economy doesn't take off then stimulus doesn't work, is not a sound idea. You can have stimulus in different forms, different points of time, and different levels. So why would continuing policies meant to help? Because discontinuing them would have a significant detrimental impact. Based on this point of view, stimulus and monetary policy have no effect, so the financial crisis should have been left to run its course. That would have been a terrible outcome, and we would be worse of than we are now.
- irln 11y ago
  My point is continuing extraordinary measures for seven years is contra to what these measures were initially articulated to address (e.g. emergency conditions != weak conditions).