4 ms·
They lost me at the basketball story. The point would be valid if the scoring baskets were uncorrelated events, but they're not - a player's physical and mental
by mark-r 11y ago
They lost me at the basketball story. The point would be valid if the scoring baskets were uncorrelated events, but they're not - a player's physical and mental state on the day of play will be similar for all of them, and different than on another day.
Then immediately after he talks about the probability of dice rolls, without realizing that rolling a 7 is much more likely than rolling a 2 if you're using a pair of dice.
- xixi77 11y agoAnd immediately follows that with an example where "four hits is no less likely to happen by chance than two hits and two misses or three hits and one miss" (perhaps if he said "two hits followed by two misses", but that would make no sense in the context, so I think he meant exactly what he wrote, i.e. that having 2 hits out of 4 is as likely as having 4 out of 4.) Honestly, this is just ridiculous.