4 ms·
Humanity's ability to produce sufficient food is likely capable of outstripping population growth for a long, long time. For example, over the last 80 years, co
by 11thEarlOfMar 11y ago
Humanity's ability to produce sufficient food is likely capable of outstripping population growth for a long, long time. For example, over the last 80 years, corn yields in bushels per acre have increased 6 fold in the US [0], where the population has less than tripled. Kansas wheat yields have tripled from 12 to 36 bushels over the same period [1]. Granted, we eat much more varied diet than corn and wheat, but we've also managed to bring the cost of feeding ourselves down as the population has increased. Per-capita spending (as a % of income) on food in the US has dropped 43% since 1960 [2], which may indicate that the productivity of the food industry is increasing relative to population growth. (have to factor in per-capita income, which I don't have time for...).
What's more relevant to me is that nations with the most mature economies also have the lowest population growth rates. 35 of 241 nations have negative population growth, including Japan, Germany, Poland and Russia. The US has less than 1% growth [3].
So it seems that all things being equal, the Earth's population will trend asymptotically to some maximum due to human nature, and not out of control into crisis, unless it is somehow self-imposed by politics. And it seems likely to me that we'll be able to feed all those people by means of increasing productivity in agriculture and distribution.
[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/16/a-brief-history-of-u-s-corn-in-one-chart/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/16/a-bri...
[1] http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crops/whthist.pdf http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publicat...
[2] http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/detail.aspx?chartId=52216 http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/detail.a...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio...
- Gravityloss 11y agoHow much of that increased agricultural production is fueled by synthetic nitrogen fertilizers created with natural gas?