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TL:DR - we will never run out of raw materials for plastics The resources used for plastic are so vastly plentiful that considering them unlimited is a good ap

TL:DR - we will never run out of raw materials for plastics The resources used for plastic are so vastly plentiful that considering them unlimited is a good approximation -- they may get more expensive but the market will sort that out. A lot of smart, well-meaning people get derailed by belief in imminent scarcity - and waste their time that could be spent on real opportunities. * only a couple of percent of petroleum and natural gas production is used for plastics http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=34&t=6 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=34&t=6 * crude oil reserves (a very conservative measure) are immense and growing - http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/XL/T31.HTM http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/... * natural gas reserves (a very conservative measure) are immense and growing - http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/XL/T32.HTM http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/... * consumption is growing globally (production is outpacing the growth - hence the crash in crude prices), and in the US (the larges consumer) it's actually fallen over the last 10 years http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us in a couple of centuries, maybe, we will have some difficulty meeting the petroleum needs for petrochemicals - but only if we keep using the crude and natural gas for vehicle fuel, heating, and electricity (currently 95% goes to these). Since we are already on the cusp of using renewables (and could switch to nuclear if we needed) for most of these while we are swimming in cheap oil - you should not worry about the future of plastics. So, don't waste your time opposing biodegradables from a 'finite resources' perspective - instead consider air pollution and greenhouse gasses on their own merits.

knughit 11y ago
You are forgetting exponential population growth and developing nations. "It just costs more" meand it won't run out, but not won't be usable everywhere desired either. The reason not to care about using it up is that tragedy of commons means we can't stop from being used up.
- vpribish 11y ago
  not at all - and exponential growth is a more nuanced term than you may realize. UN population growth projection for the next 100 years shows (95% conf) at most a doubling of population. development of nations has roared ahead since the industrial revolution, and petroleum reserve development has easily kept pace. I really am saying that time spent worrying about running out of oil -- ESPECIALLY running out for the purposes of plastics production is a complete waste of your time and a distraction from actually important things. Come to think of it, worrying about over-population is also a curious preoccupation of rich, privileged, people like ourselves. Malthus was wrong. That there is a commons does not mean there is a tragedy.

knughit 11y ago

You are forgetting exponential population growth and developing nations. "It just costs more" meand it won't run out, but not won't be usable everywhere desired either. The reason not to care about using it up is that tragedy of commons means we can't stop from being used up.

vpribish 11y ago
not at all - and exponential growth is a more nuanced term than you may realize. UN population growth projection for the next 100 years shows (95% conf) at most a doubling of population. development of nations has roared ahead since the industrial revolution, and petroleum reserve development has easily kept pace. I really am saying that time spent worrying about running out of oil -- ESPECIALLY running out for the purposes of plastics production is a complete waste of your time and a distraction from actually important things. Come to think of it, worrying about over-population is also a curious preoccupation of rich, privileged, people like ourselves. Malthus was wrong. That there is a commons does not mean there is a tragedy.