For example, you would assign a very low prior probability to your friend telling you that she met her 5’2” tall second cousin last Tuesday at 8:47am at 11 fe

For example, you would assign a very low prior probability to your friend telling you that she met her 5’2” tall second cousin last Tuesday at 8:47am at 11 feet northwest of the smaller statue in a certain square. Nevertheless, after she made such a claim to you, you would likely place a high probability that the event happened as claimed. On topics like this, most people are fairly reliable. This is a bad example. "you would assign a very low prior probability to your friend telling you __________". If it was a prediction, yes, that would be extraordinary, but it's not. Its the same as if someone told you they flipped a coin 100 times and got a certain sequence of heads and tails. The probability of that happening is 1/2^100, but it's only extraordinary if you predict it in advance.