6 ms·

From my perspective the elephant in the room is something Tesla is unlikely to be able to compete against, particularly as more manufacturers come online with v

From my perspective the elephant in the room is something Tesla is unlikely to be able to compete against, particularly as more manufacturers come online with viable full range electric cars: Constant innovation. What I mean by that is car companies are geared-up and used to introducing new and seriously updated models every year or two. They go through many iterations and designs, have hits and misses. And they sell millions of cars per year in the process. In another year or two the Model S will feel, well, dated and old. I have to admit having had this very thought. I've been considering purchasing one for the past year and was going to make a decision in January. And I keep running in circles with multiple arguments in my head. First there's the "this look is getting old" argument. Sorry, superficial, but, hey, that's the way it works. This this wasn't a real-life criteria we all use to buy cars they would still look the way they did twenty years ago because nobody would care. Then there's the interior. As others have pointed out, not the best. I'll just leave it at that. I find my self less interested in a car who's outward and interior design is already several years old. I am not interested in a Tesla because I am a fan boy. I am not. I would like an electric car because I have a nice solar infrastructure at home that I designed to be able to support two electric cars. I also want to stop burning fossil fuel for transportation. I am also very interested in lane-keeping or auto-pilot technologies while on a highway. And, finally, it is a business decision based on facts: I find myself driving quite a few miles per week and, if you do the math, going electric just makes sense. Then there's the question of battery technology. I can't help but think we are not very far from a shift in battery technology. I, frankly, don't want to find myself in two or three years with a US $90K Tesla sporting an outdated battery, outdated exterior and outdated interior and a tough resale landscape because Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Ford, GM and even Yugo (raise your hand if you remember them) has a pure electric with 200+ mile range for $40K. All car companies know how to make electrics. It ain't that difficult when compared to making IC cars. In fact, if you already have a well-tuned infrastructure to build the rest of the car efficiently --which all other car companies have in droves-- building an electric car is actually simpler. Tesla's SUV? Please. It's a joke.

aianus 11y ago
> Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Ford, GM and even Yugo (raise your hand if you remember them) has a pure electric with 200+ mile range for $40K. Why would any of those companies leapfrog Tesla in battery technology when that's literally Tesla's core competency and they're poised to become the largest battery manufacturer in world?
- rebootthesystem 11y ago
  No, Tesla might know how to assemble a battery pack for use in a car but their core competency isn't battery technology. Last time I checked the cells used in their cars are made by Panasonic. Also, I am pretty sure the Gigafactory is a partnership with Panasonic. There are companies, much larger and far more experienced than Tesla who have been working on battery technology for far longer. I've been flying model airplanes for thirty years. When electric flight was in it's infancy we used heavy NiCd battery packs. I had competition gliders with six pounds of NiCd batteries occupying a huge volume. Fast forward to a few years ago (about a decade?) when LiPo chemistry started to become available. Today I fly that same glider with a battery pack that is half the volume, a third of the weight, four times the energy content and probably twice the power delivery capability. Tesla didn't do that. Companies like Sanyo, Panasonic, Samsung and other battery makers did that. The primary market probably being portable computers and later smart phones and all manner of small portable devices. I doubt these companies have been sitting around doing nothing. They all know the next major market for them is in electric cars. Tesla does not manufacture their own cells, therefore it is probably safe to assume the next major evolutionary step in battery technology is likely to come for those who's core competency for decades has been energy storage chemistry. That said, Tesla and SpaceX are known for their out of the box approach to engineering. There's no reason to think that, perhaps, they might have a unique take on cell chemistry that might be that next-generation battery pack with twice the energy in half the volume. That remains to be seen. Here's the thing with physics and chemistry: They tend not to change just because you are a maverick. There's a lot of knowledge out there and Tesla does not have a monopoly on that. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see a US company own the next generation of battery technology. I just think that isn't likely to be the case.
11y ago

aianus 11y ago

> Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Ford, GM and even Yugo (raise your hand if you remember them) has a pure electric with 200+ mile range for $40K. Why would any of those companies leapfrog Tesla in battery technology when that's literally Tesla's core competency and they're poised to become the largest battery manufacturer in world?

rebootthesystem 11y ago
No, Tesla might know how to assemble a battery pack for use in a car but their core competency isn't battery technology. Last time I checked the cells used in their cars are made by Panasonic. Also, I am pretty sure the Gigafactory is a partnership with Panasonic. There are companies, much larger and far more experienced than Tesla who have been working on battery technology for far longer. I've been flying model airplanes for thirty years. When electric flight was in it's infancy we used heavy NiCd battery packs. I had competition gliders with six pounds of NiCd batteries occupying a huge volume. Fast forward to a few years ago (about a decade?) when LiPo chemistry started to become available. Today I fly that same glider with a battery pack that is half the volume, a third of the weight, four times the energy content and probably twice the power delivery capability. Tesla didn't do that. Companies like Sanyo, Panasonic, Samsung and other battery makers did that. The primary market probably being portable computers and later smart phones and all manner of small portable devices. I doubt these companies have been sitting around doing nothing. They all know the next major market for them is in electric cars. Tesla does not manufacture their own cells, therefore it is probably safe to assume the next major evolutionary step in battery technology is likely to come for those who's core competency for decades has been energy storage chemistry. That said, Tesla and SpaceX are known for their out of the box approach to engineering. There's no reason to think that, perhaps, they might have a unique take on cell chemistry that might be that next-generation battery pack with twice the energy in half the volume. That remains to be seen. Here's the thing with physics and chemistry: They tend not to change just because you are a maverick. There's a lot of knowledge out there and Tesla does not have a monopoly on that. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see a US company own the next generation of battery technology. I just think that isn't likely to be the case.

11y ago