5 ms·

Your question about self-fulfilling prophecy is very relevant to a recent piece written by a transportation expert. Among other points he makes: >Uber-type com

Your question about self-fulfilling prophecy is very relevant to a recent piece written by a transportation expert. Among other points he makes: >Uber-type companies need to be understood as a radical departure from Amazon/EBay type models. Instead of displacing competitors through actual efficiencies, or by creating entirely new markets, its model is entirely based on getting the world to believe that it will inevitably dominate the entire industry. This requires aggressively suppressing any discussion of empirical economic evidence (which would undermine its case) and emphasizing the factors driving inevitability--the brilliance of its early stage investors, the ruthlessness of management, and the raw political power of the company’s wealthy supporters. PR is a component of every start-up; at Amazon/EBay it played a supporting role and relied heavily on economic evidence of competitive strengths, but at Uber PR is the heart of the plan, and replaces the need to figure out how to provide much better service at much lower cost. https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-problem-transportation-industry-expert-writes/a5c239cf3fc961d10b17a4892d0f74e899b77fd9/ https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-pro...

gmarx 11y ago
I think they are creating a new market. People now use Uber in situations in which they never would have thought to take a cab. That is not to say this valuation makes sense
- marcusgarvey 11y ago
  Perhaps so, but how substantial is that compared to the market of people who are just using Uber as a more convenient and reliable cab? Surely the latter is the vast bulk of their business.
  - gmarx 11y ago
    currently but I can foresee a time when it is so convenient to hail a car that a lot of people just forgo car ownership entirely. Think of a future in which self driving cars work well and you can use your phone to get one to wherever you are within 10 minutes, get dropped off anywhere, never worry about parking and it costs far less than car ownership.
dopamean 11y ago
I can only speak for myself here but I feel like I am part of a new market that Uber and Lyft have created. I live in Austin TX and have had bad cab experiences here and so I frequently use Uber. I am from New York, however, and when I'm back there I almost never use Uber because I have no problems with getting a cab. I would be surprised if the market for cab companies in Austin is as large as the market Uber serves. I really cant recall the last time someone here told me they got in a cab. I think those people just drove themselves places before Uber instead of taking a cab. I certainly did.
- cm2012 11y ago
  I live out in a relatively remote area of Queens in NYC and never, ever took taxis before (I would have had to call an unreliable, surly car service). Now I spend $100+ a month on Uber, which is never more than 5 minutes away.
  - myth_buster 11y ago
    OT, the "5 minutes" I believe is an estimation and one reason why we feel that the response is fast. As a thought experiment, if they say your car is "10 minutes" away, it would perhaps be a different experience.
    - fapjacks 11y ago
      This is very important, because I time my rides to the minute, and almost every time, the driver that accepts my ride is sitting in his living room (or at his office) and takes five minutes alone just to get to his car and start driving to my location. Drivers aren't just sitting there idling like taxis at a taxi stand.
    - voltagex_ 11y ago
      It's been 10 and 11 minutes just outside Canberra, Australia. There are less drivers here. Interestingly 2 of the local cab companies now have Uber-like apps, which are quite nice to use.
  - 11y ago

gmarx 11y ago

I think they are creating a new market. People now use Uber in situations in which they never would have thought to take a cab. That is not to say this valuation makes sense

marcusgarvey 11y ago
Perhaps so, but how substantial is that compared to the market of people who are just using Uber as a more convenient and reliable cab? Surely the latter is the vast bulk of their business.
- gmarx 11y ago
  currently but I can foresee a time when it is so convenient to hail a car that a lot of people just forgo car ownership entirely. Think of a future in which self driving cars work well and you can use your phone to get one to wherever you are within 10 minutes, get dropped off anywhere, never worry about parking and it costs far less than car ownership.

dopamean 11y ago

I can only speak for myself here but I feel like I am part of a new market that Uber and Lyft have created. I live in Austin TX and have had bad cab experiences here and so I frequently use Uber. I am from New York, however, and when I'm back there I almost never use Uber because I have no problems with getting a cab. I would be surprised if the market for cab companies in Austin is as large as the market Uber serves. I really cant recall the last time someone here told me they got in a cab. I think those people just drove themselves places before Uber instead of taking a cab. I certainly did.

cm2012 11y ago
I live out in a relatively remote area of Queens in NYC and never, ever took taxis before (I would have had to call an unreliable, surly car service). Now I spend $100+ a month on Uber, which is never more than 5 minutes away.
- myth_buster 11y ago
  OT, the "5 minutes" I believe is an estimation and one reason why we feel that the response is fast. As a thought experiment, if they say your car is "10 minutes" away, it would perhaps be a different experience.
  - fapjacks 11y ago
    This is very important, because I time my rides to the minute, and almost every time, the driver that accepts my ride is sitting in his living room (or at his office) and takes five minutes alone just to get to his car and start driving to my location. Drivers aren't just sitting there idling like taxis at a taxi stand.
  - voltagex_ 11y ago
    It's been 10 and 11 minutes just outside Canberra, Australia. There are less drivers here. Interestingly 2 of the local cab companies now have Uber-like apps, which are quite nice to use.
- 11y ago