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I think that's a very optimistic view. Full EVs are a drop in the bucket right now. The Model 3 isn't even released, probably won't be widely available for ano
by ssmoot 11y ago
I think that's a very optimistic view.
Full EVs are a drop in the bucket right now. The Model 3 isn't even released, probably won't be widely available for another couple years, will likely cost around $50K comparably equipped, and even then Tesla likely couldn't make enough to make a dent in the overall market.
The Leaf is a great car (IMO), but even in a major metro (DFW) spot-charging is really impractical. There are NO DC quick-chargers in North or North East Dallas last I looked, and you at minimum have to have a subscription just to have the option to pay to use them. There's a reasonable number of Blink Network chargers around, but no one who's actually used those would suggest they're a viable way to maintain a charge without major compromises. Using a Leaf to commute to the suburbs is an experience fraught with stress as well.
Maybe in a couple years the Leaf will have kicked the range-anxiety issue to the curb. And the Chevy Beat looks very promising. 2 cars in the range of the average new car purchase price does not make for domination though.
My prediction is that it's realistically going to be at least 3 car generations before that has a chance of happening, and most manufacturers haven't even released a full EV yet. That's a good 15 to 20 years as a best case scenario. That doesn't address the Truck and family SUV market either. These things are made for hauling. They're going to suck down a lot more power. "Work Trucks" aren't going to convert for much longer Though I think there's a good chance many will go hybrid in ~10 years. There's got to be a ton of utility in a series-hybrid truck for towing, site power, etc.
Just my 2c. I've actually owned a Leaf. I think EVs are great. A lot more so than people even realize. Instant torque and acceleration response makes them really fun to drive. That doesn't mean I think they'll somehow become dominant in the same timespan that it took Nissan to come out with a massively compromised diesel truck nobody is going to buy. That's beyond optimistic IMO.