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Good insight into entering the car business. But he missed the only thing that matters. Apple's car must be centered around self-driving, or it wont be relevan

Good insight into entering the car business. But he missed the only thing that matters. Apple's car must be centered around self-driving, or it wont be relevant. Tesla's Autopilot represents an automotive phase change[1]. A car without autopilot is like using a fax machine instead of an iPhone. [1] http://jalopnik.com/teslas-autopilot-system-is-awesome-and-creepy-and-a-sig-1736573089 http://jalopnik.com/teslas-autopilot-system-is-awesome-and-c...

jonstewart 11y ago
It would seem very much in keeping for Apple to start selling a car geared towards drivers: luxury, control, response, the craft of driving, of a piece with the old "Drivers Wanted" VW campaign (but, yknow, with more Jony). Get that Pro/Creative market locked down. Then 2–3 years later, after the kinks have been worked out, they do the self-driving model.
- paulsutter 11y ago
  If Apple's first car came out today, they need Autopilot, today. Apple can't afford to be 5 years behind Tesla. Elon: "Should mention that I will be interviewing people personally and Autopilot reports directly to me. This is a super high priority." - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/667519445414252544 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/667519445414252544 Watch the video I linked to above. That's a step change in the meaning of automobile.
mikeash 11y ago
Autopilot is cool, but it's not a game changer by any means. The driver still has to be fully engaged. This is not a system where you can turn it on and then read a book or take a nap. 80% of the benefit of Autopilot is the traffic-aware cruise control. That's basically just a radar unit that keeps you from hitting the car in front. Remarkably useful, but not anything like a phase change. If and when true autonomous technology arrives, that certainly will be a phase change. And Autopilot is a step (a small one) in that direction. But it is not by itself a prticularly big deal. (Full disclosure: I've driven maybe 1,000 miles with Autopilot, and a few thousand miles with the pre-Autopilot traffic-aware cruise control.)
- paulsutter 11y ago
  The key of autopilot is not the current state of the software. The key is that they have shipped it and their learning curve will be steeper and product development faster and more user-proven than the competitors. Google had an enormous technology lead but they've squandered it on a clowncar that remains a concept. They're overthinking the product, how can we ensure people aren't afraid of the technology? Make it cute. Riiight. Funny how they don't mention any pre-orders. Shipping autopilot was bold and smart. Tesla has a deterministic path forward. Meanwhile Google and the traditional car companies are lost in indecision. And Apple is starting out even further behind. Tesla's autopilot is a wake-up call for all of them. EDIT: Qworg, they can add a sensor to the cars they ship at any time. They did it in the past and you can be sure they are doing it now. The others still need to figure out how to ship a single car.
  - Qworg 11y ago
    I wouldn't take it as far as you have - releasing Autopilot this early was the right move, but the current sensor mix will limit the applicability of their data gathering until they ship new hardware. I'm not sure GoogleX had to approach self-driving as a product. At least, not until Alphabet.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    Shipping autopilot put Tesla more or less on par with various other car manufacturers who are already shipping similar features. Tesla's implementation is the best out there, but it's not substantially different from what you'll find on a high-end Infiniti or Volvo or Mercedes today.
- superuser2 11y ago
  Radar/adaptive cruise control is an available option on just about any new ~$25-30k car and was common in the luxury segment for a good while before that.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    Right, and other cars have lane keeping too. Tesla's implementation of both is the best out there, but mainly because they're less timid about it. Other manufacturers feel compelled to force you to keep your hands on the wheel and such, even when the technology doesn't require it.

jonstewart 11y ago

It would seem very much in keeping for Apple to start selling a car geared towards drivers: luxury, control, response, the craft of driving, of a piece with the old "Drivers Wanted" VW campaign (but, yknow, with more Jony). Get that Pro/Creative market locked down. Then 2–3 years later, after the kinks have been worked out, they do the self-driving model.

paulsutter 11y ago
If Apple's first car came out today, they need Autopilot, today. Apple can't afford to be 5 years behind Tesla. Elon: "Should mention that I will be interviewing people personally and Autopilot reports directly to me. This is a super high priority." - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/667519445414252544 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/667519445414252544 Watch the video I linked to above. That's a step change in the meaning of automobile.

mikeash 11y ago

Autopilot is cool, but it's not a game changer by any means. The driver still has to be fully engaged. This is not a system where you can turn it on and then read a book or take a nap. 80% of the benefit of Autopilot is the traffic-aware cruise control. That's basically just a radar unit that keeps you from hitting the car in front. Remarkably useful, but not anything like a phase change. If and when true autonomous technology arrives, that certainly will be a phase change. And Autopilot is a step (a small one) in that direction. But it is not by itself a prticularly big deal. (Full disclosure: I've driven maybe 1,000 miles with Autopilot, and a few thousand miles with the pre-Autopilot traffic-aware cruise control.)

paulsutter 11y ago
The key of autopilot is not the current state of the software. The key is that they have shipped it and their learning curve will be steeper and product development faster and more user-proven than the competitors. Google had an enormous technology lead but they've squandered it on a clowncar that remains a concept. They're overthinking the product, how can we ensure people aren't afraid of the technology? Make it cute. Riiight. Funny how they don't mention any pre-orders. Shipping autopilot was bold and smart. Tesla has a deterministic path forward. Meanwhile Google and the traditional car companies are lost in indecision. And Apple is starting out even further behind. Tesla's autopilot is a wake-up call for all of them. EDIT: Qworg, they can add a sensor to the cars they ship at any time. They did it in the past and you can be sure they are doing it now. The others still need to figure out how to ship a single car.
- Qworg 11y ago
  I wouldn't take it as far as you have - releasing Autopilot this early was the right move, but the current sensor mix will limit the applicability of their data gathering until they ship new hardware. I'm not sure GoogleX had to approach self-driving as a product. At least, not until Alphabet.
- mikeash 11y ago
  Shipping autopilot put Tesla more or less on par with various other car manufacturers who are already shipping similar features. Tesla's implementation is the best out there, but it's not substantially different from what you'll find on a high-end Infiniti or Volvo or Mercedes today.
superuser2 11y ago
Radar/adaptive cruise control is an available option on just about any new ~$25-30k car and was common in the luxury segment for a good while before that.
- mikeash 11y ago
  Right, and other cars have lane keeping too. Tesla's implementation of both is the best out there, but mainly because they're less timid about it. Other manufacturers feel compelled to force you to keep your hands on the wheel and such, even when the technology doesn't require it.