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Except that the predictions that actually came true are the obvious ones (e.g. smaller faster computers everywhere predicted in 1999) while the ones that didn't
by axiom 17y ago
Except that the predictions that actually came true are the obvious ones (e.g. smaller faster computers everywhere predicted in 1999) while the ones that didn't come true (e.g. "Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages" ) were the ones that were derided - rightly so.
- jerf 17y agoI accept Kurzweil's defense. He's off by two years, tops, for common use, and in terms of simple existence, he's not wrong at all. The software already exists: http://www.jibbigo.com/website/index.php http://www.jibbigo.com/website/index.php . That's real. You can buy it. The only thing stopping me from linking straight into the app store is the app store won't let me. Even if you want to get anal about the year (which is not really appropriate), that was out in 2009. And I'm pretty sure that's not the only one, either. Compared to the general rate of prediction failure he is in a league of his own. And again, you just claimed his predictions were trivial as if I didn't mention that issue at all. I feel you may not have read my message, as you don't seem to have actually reacted to it. It's not about the triviality apparent in 2009. It's about whether the general public he was speaking to would have considered it a trivial prediction in 1998-ish. That's easy: No. I remember that time. Many technologically-aware people like me wouldn't have blinked at most of the predictions but they were not in the public's mind.