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>I agree with you that the current sea level is about where it was 23 years ago. So you'd agree that it is, um, how should I phrase this... unchanged?? Why th

by gd1 11y ago

>I agree with you that the current sea level is about where it was 23 years ago. So you'd agree that it is, um, how should I phrase this... unchanged?? Why then did you explicitly call me out, and call me a crackpot, for not defending that claim? If you agree with it?

ajkjk 11y ago
As it turns out, a single sentence out of a comment is actually not the entire content of the comment. It's very disingenuous to cherry pick a sentence and pretend as though it's the entire point. If you want to be utterly pedantic: If I or anyone else claims the sea level is 'unchanged', what I and anyone else means is that 'the average sea level over a regular oscillation' is unchanged. This is clearly false; the average has increased. No one - not me, not you, not climate scientists, not hacker news posters - means that "The sea level as of December 02 2015 is the same as the sea level as of <date in 1993>". We're interested in averages of the sea level over a year/cycle/whatever unit you want. So you are still probably incorrect, unless you intentionally twist words against their intention. If you do that, there is no point in arguing with you; you are not interested in debate and are not genuinely trying to find truth. Though without agreeing on a method and timespan of averaging things, I wouldn't swear you're incorrect. My whole point is that your argument is failing because of your hostility to rationality and being challenged on it. Not that you're necessarily wrong. (though eyeballing it definitely suggests that you're wrong.)
- underwires 11y ago
  > As it turns out, a single sentence out of a comment is actually not the entire content of the comment the key to gd1's entire world view
  - kevinskii 11y ago
    Congratulations on scoring points with the choir. Now would you care to say something substantive?
- gd1 11y ago
  I will have one last go at explaining my position, as simply as I can. I used the word 'unchanged' to indicate that the sea level in the Marshall Islands is unchanged. It is currently approximately where it was 23 years ago. This is a pretty common usage. If a stock trades up and down all day and ends where it started, you will hear people say 'it ended the day unchanged'. Or 'unch'. Sea levels in the Marshall Islands are currently 'unch'. Over a period of 23 years. And make no mistake, I acknowledge the worldwide trend in sea level is upwards, the evidence of one tidal gauge doesn't trump the evidence of thousands of tidal gauges. And it has been upwards of course this entire interglacial. Now, your example of a linear trend superimposed on a sinusoid is a good one. So let me say this, it's a pretty fucking pathetic linear trend if, 23 years later, the bottom of the sinusoid is still overlapping the starting point. The noise in the measurement, and the seasonality, is greater than the supposed trend. It's worth considering for example the coastline of Manhattan 100 years ago. This trend you speak of is utterly insignificant on a human timescale. We can literally grow land faster should we so desire. For example, consider the fact that many Pacific islands are growing due to sediment accumulation (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679), so weak is this trend. And yet, we're expected to sit here and swallow the premise of this article, the concept of 'climate refugees' and compensation...
  - ajkjk 11y ago
    So, I'll reply to your argument and then make a point about the meta argument. 1: So either: you believe that comparing a point-in-time value today to a point-in-time value 23 years ago is a legitimate way to talk about sea levels being 'unchanged' (it's not) or you believe that the ~10cm change in the average (over various periods) is a legitimately 'unchanged' mean, in that it lies with, say, a couple standard deviations around the mean and is therefore not indicative of a trend. The second is a legitimate stance, so I'll respond to it: I'm pretty sure your intuition is misleading you badly here. First, note that the existence of the islands and their habitability depends on the high point, not the average or the current value (okay, that's my intuition at least). The high point in 1992-95 was about 1cm; the high point in 2012-2015 was about 20cm. [I chose those bounds to try to avoid the dip in 1998 that we may be entering again - not sure how to interpret that without more historical data.] Second, they only have about 180cm of leeway, so that's ~1/10th of the way there. On a scale of 0-180, I think a shift of about 20 over 23 years is significant. Meta point: The whole reason I initial responded to you was that you were badly failing to argue your point. You wrote a couple posts above "Why then did you explicitly call me out, and call me a crackpot, for not defending that claim? If you agree with it?". Do you not see the difference? I called you a crackpot precisely for not defending it, and just insisting it was true several times despite challenges. It has nothing to do at all with whether I agree with it. (I don't, actually, but as above - that seems to be a difference of interpretation. I would need more data to be confident either way though.)

by gd1 11y ago

ajkjk 11y ago

As it turns out, a single sentence out of a comment is actually not the entire content of the comment. It's very disingenuous to cherry pick a sentence and pretend as though it's the entire point. If you want to be utterly pedantic: If I or anyone else claims the sea level is 'unchanged', what I and anyone else means is that 'the average sea level over a regular oscillation' is unchanged. This is clearly false; the average has increased. No one - not me, not you, not climate scientists, not hacker news posters - means that "The sea level as of December 02 2015 is the same as the sea level as of <date in 1993>". We're interested in averages of the sea level over a year/cycle/whatever unit you want. So you are still probably incorrect, unless you intentionally twist words against their intention. If you do that, there is no point in arguing with you; you are not interested in debate and are not genuinely trying to find truth. Though without agreeing on a method and timespan of averaging things, I wouldn't swear you're incorrect. My whole point is that your argument is failing because of your hostility to rationality and being challenged on it. Not that you're necessarily wrong. (though eyeballing it definitely suggests that you're wrong.)

underwires 11y ago
> As it turns out, a single sentence out of a comment is actually not the entire content of the comment the key to gd1's entire world view
- kevinskii 11y ago
  Congratulations on scoring points with the choir. Now would you care to say something substantive?
gd1 11y ago
I will have one last go at explaining my position, as simply as I can. I used the word 'unchanged' to indicate that the sea level in the Marshall Islands is unchanged. It is currently approximately where it was 23 years ago. This is a pretty common usage. If a stock trades up and down all day and ends where it started, you will hear people say 'it ended the day unchanged'. Or 'unch'. Sea levels in the Marshall Islands are currently 'unch'. Over a period of 23 years. And make no mistake, I acknowledge the worldwide trend in sea level is upwards, the evidence of one tidal gauge doesn't trump the evidence of thousands of tidal gauges. And it has been upwards of course this entire interglacial. Now, your example of a linear trend superimposed on a sinusoid is a good one. So let me say this, it's a pretty fucking pathetic linear trend if, 23 years later, the bottom of the sinusoid is still overlapping the starting point. The noise in the measurement, and the seasonality, is greater than the supposed trend. It's worth considering for example the coastline of Manhattan 100 years ago. This trend you speak of is utterly insignificant on a human timescale. We can literally grow land faster should we so desire. For example, consider the fact that many Pacific islands are growing due to sediment accumulation (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679), so weak is this trend. And yet, we're expected to sit here and swallow the premise of this article, the concept of 'climate refugees' and compensation...
- ajkjk 11y ago
  So, I'll reply to your argument and then make a point about the meta argument. 1: So either: you believe that comparing a point-in-time value today to a point-in-time value 23 years ago is a legitimate way to talk about sea levels being 'unchanged' (it's not) or you believe that the ~10cm change in the average (over various periods) is a legitimately 'unchanged' mean, in that it lies with, say, a couple standard deviations around the mean and is therefore not indicative of a trend. The second is a legitimate stance, so I'll respond to it: I'm pretty sure your intuition is misleading you badly here. First, note that the existence of the islands and their habitability depends on the high point, not the average or the current value (okay, that's my intuition at least). The high point in 1992-95 was about 1cm; the high point in 2012-2015 was about 20cm. [I chose those bounds to try to avoid the dip in 1998 that we may be entering again - not sure how to interpret that without more historical data.] Second, they only have about 180cm of leeway, so that's ~1/10th of the way there. On a scale of 0-180, I think a shift of about 20 over 23 years is significant. Meta point: The whole reason I initial responded to you was that you were badly failing to argue your point. You wrote a couple posts above "Why then did you explicitly call me out, and call me a crackpot, for not defending that claim? If you agree with it?". Do you not see the difference? I called you a crackpot precisely for not defending it, and just insisting it was true several times despite challenges. It has nothing to do at all with whether I agree with it. (I don't, actually, but as above - that seems to be a difference of interpretation. I would need more data to be confident either way though.)