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So, this post is lots of fun, and I want to encourage folks to do more blogging where they take a bunch of data, graph it up, and test hypotheses with it. Scien
by mechanical_fish 17y ago
So, this post is lots of fun, and I want to encourage folks to do more blogging where they take a bunch of data, graph it up, and test hypotheses with it. Science is great!
On the other hand, though I rarely cite Zed Shaw, I have a special fondness for the theme of his classic article "Programmers Need to Learn Statistics or I Will Kill Them All":
http://zedshaw.com/essays/programmer_stats.html http://zedshaw.com/essays/programmer_stats.html
... and I used to review journal articles, so I can't resist nitpicking by pointing out that some of these conclusions are a lot more dubious than others. For example, this sentence:
For women, a smile isn’t strictly better: she actually gets the most messages by flirting directly into the camera...
Appears to be based on the difference between 9.1 new monthly contacts and 9.3 new monthly contacts in each category. Is that statistically significant? I rather doubt it. The correct conclusion here is almost certainly "making a flirty face is not significantly more effective than smiling, and you have to be sure to do it into the camera or the result will be a disaster, so smiling might be the more reliable tactic."
Of course, if you really want to start picking nits you can bring up the need for some kind of multifactor analysis to correct for the fact that certain kinds of pictures are probably correlated with certain kinds of personalities. But that would go beyond what I understand. And it's not actually necessary to try for a Ph.D. every time you throw up a graph or two.
Good fun! Publish more raw data and we can turn this into an great statistics problem set.
- mhartl 17y agoIt's worth noting in this context that the poster, Christian, is probably OkCupid co-founder Christian Rudder, who has a math degree from Harvard. So I'd guess the results are pretty solid, though I agree it would be nice to see the raw data as well.
- Tichy 17y ago"Is that statistically significant? I rather doubt it." Well do the maths then? Since you read the Zed Shaw essay, you are now an expert on statistics, no? Sorry to be cynical, but not ALL statistics out there has to be bad. I am too lazy to do the maths right now, but since you seem concerned, it seems fair to ask you to do it before complaining. For one thing, I think they have a fairly large sample, so maybe the 0.2 difference is significant after all (as I said I am too lazy to do the maths myself atm).