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(edited) In my analogy, assessing the universe numerically = opening the envelope to see what number is inside. I think it's a pretty close analogy, and obvio
by logicallee 11y ago
(edited) In my analogy, assessing the universe numerically = opening the envelope to see what number is inside. I think it's a pretty close analogy, and obviously leads to an absurd, nonsensical result: that we can learn something about whether we 'probably' (>50%) are in the better universe, without knowing anything about the value of the other one.
- dllthomas 11y agoI still don't see why your analogy does anything but introduce additional complication. To me, the result appears no more nonsensical than in the original formulation - where it appears correct. So long as X and Y are chosen in advance - and independently - of my guessing, if I draw my reference R from any continuous distribution, there is some nonzero chance that it will fall between X and Y, letting me distinguish them in that case.
- logicallee 11y agoyou have no idea what possible values X and Y can have. It's like an alternative universe, or guessing a number first and then finding a function to numerically evaluate the universe whose range you don't know in advance. I find it nonsensical that this can yield any information.