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Build, don't destroy: Why I'm bullish about Lagos
- kristopolous 11y agoI've had my eye on Lagos for about 12 years but never been adventurous enough to take the investment plunge. My logic for it is more based in how I, as a mostly anti-capitalist* thinks capital works. The trick for me is whether, like China, Nigeria will grow its own industry, or like say, Bangladesh, where the long-term prospects continue to be mostly external exploitation. This depends on so many things, such as how property and capital are treated culturally, whether there's a strong entrepreneurial or self-directed narrative. Then there's the possibility that the investments themselves may not be honored. There's been a history of countries electing leaders that kick out foreign investors and seize the land, factories, and industries. This is especially an issue, because I'd expect return in a Lagos investment, if it were to come, to be big but on a 5-15 year scale, not 12-18 month. I think I've got only 1 holding at most, in my portfolio that I've had for 15 years. Committing to Lagos for that time period just sounds like a trip to Vegas. In the world of investment, I'm on the 80% 2nd wave on this for sure. I really want Lagos to succeed, but I have too much internal FUD about it to put my money where my mouth is. * "Anti-capitalism" here is meant to mean that I am skeptical and overly-pessimistic of the systemic process of capitalism and view it as an unstable, irresponsible, and unfair system. I think most of the promises are a particular kind of fiction and invest according to my perception of the reality. My portfolio return is within a std dev of the s&p ... so no magic here.