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> We already know that today’s energy sources cannot sustain a future we want to live in. Is this really true? In Lazard's 2014 comparison of total cost per MW

by T-A 11y ago

> We already know that today’s energy sources cannot sustain a future we want to live in. Is this really true? In Lazard's 2014 comparison of total cost per MWh, both wind and solar beat coal and nuclear [1]. Costs have fallen so much that it's becoming hard to justify continued subsidies [2]. [1] http://energyinnovation.org/2015/02/07/levelized-cost-of-energy/ http://energyinnovation.org/2015/02/07/levelized-cost-of-ene... [2] http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/us-energy-secretary-solar-and-wind-energy-cost-competitive-without-subsidies.html http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/us-energy-secreta...

pilom 11y ago
The problem is scale. Here is a really good analysis of renewable resources in the UK: http://www.withouthotair.com/ http://www.withouthotair.com/ Conclusion: The UK doesn't receive enough sunlight or have enough wind/waves/tidal pools/land to grow food, power cars (of any kind) and meet other energy needs. The UK can never get all of their energy carbon free without nuclear or importing power. The US is in a better place because of solar in the Southwest but we still don't have the technology/infrastructure to transport all of that power.
- ommunist 11y ago
  The UK relatively recently backed full cycle of Uranium fuel production in Kazakhstan. Tony Blair became personal advisor to Nazarbayev. And I ve heard, the UK is going to build new nuclear plants. Its supply is secured and the know how will be both French and USSR (Kazakhstan). Those interested can ask themselves, what Atomic Kitten was doing in Astana in 2010?
  - guelo 11y ago
    Are you suggesting that UK is going transport electricity from Kazakhstan back to the UK? presumably via Russia? If so, that seems like a really bad plan.
    - ommunist 11y ago
      No, transporting U3O8 is enough. Upd: http://namrc.co.uk/intelligence/uk-new-build-plans/ http://namrc.co.uk/intelligence/uk-new-build-plans/ 4 sites are already acquired for development on British grounds.
      - guelo 11y ago
        Oh sorry I misunderstood that you're talking about fuel production. But this highlights what I think is the main problem with the large scale nuclear energy vision, it would replace oil with Uranium as the root of geopolitical resource control wars.
        nitrogen 11y ago
        Uranium is fairly abundant AFAIK. Sourcing it is less of a problem than overcoming NIMBY.
        ommunist 11y ago
        Uranium available for enrichment is not fairly abundant. And U ore deposites are distributed far from fair. Like I said, China has no access to deposits, the UK secured for itself. Russia was effectively cut off Kazakh U resources, leaved with a _single_ mine in Chita region.
        pdkl95 11y ago
        This is nonsense the amount of uranium required is incredibly small compared to oil or coal. We are talking on the order of 1:100,000 or in the case of a proper breeder reactor even less. Worse, this concern is making the usual mistake of only considering uranium. Thorium is a waste product from rare earth mining and is very abundant in the USA (and elsewhere). If we build thorium based reactors, fuel is practically unlimited and free (compared to the costs of running a reactor).
- Retric 11y ago
  BS, solar is not great in the UK, but your comparing electric generation at 2009 efficiency levels with powering cars, heating using resistance heating etc. (Heat pumps break 100% nominal efficiency by extracting heat from outside air.) It's also perfectly reasonable for the UK to continue to import significant amounts of energy in one form or another and or increase efficiency levels. EX: We can manufacture 40+% efficient solar cells, sure there expensive, but saying the only thing possible is some lower efficiency level is clearly BS. [They use 10% as some sort of arbitrary limit on page 41.] PS: Photovoltaic panels with 20% efficiency are already close to the theoretical limit (see this chapter’s endnotes Current, world record for concentrated solar is 46%.
  - johncolanduoni 11y ago
    > PS: Photovoltaic panels with 20% efficiency are already close to the theoretical limit (see this chapter’s endnotes Current, world record for concentrated solar is 46%. They are likely referring to the theoretical limit for crystalline silicon based cells (~30% IIRC). This is due to silicon's particular band gap. The record is held by multi-junction cells, which don't suffer from this limitation (which is part of their problem, as they use materials far more expensive than silicon).
    - Retric 11y ago
      I don't think you need to be overly generous when they suggest the UK needs to be both 100% energy independent and 100% free from fossil fuels, and grow 100% of it's food locally, when the UK imports ~35% of it's electricity in 2013 and ~40% of it's food (1). Let alone fossil fuels. And if we can't meet those goals we need to do X. 1: In 2010, the UK produced 73% of ‘indigenous-type foods’, and is about 60% self-sufficient when exports and local consumption are set against production http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/food/uk-facts.html http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/food/uk-facts.html
      - johncolanduoni 11y ago
        I wasn't arguing for all his calculations, it's just that his evaluation of the theoretical limit of crystalline silicon cells is accurate. He is correct that it is unlikely that they will get much closer to the theoretical limit than 20% in real life situations. Some GenIV nuclear reactor technologies have a somewhat clearer path to viability than multi-junction solar cells, which have not been able to beat traditional cells in a price-to-performance ratio. We don't even know if there exist materials and processes that can replicate the performance without the costs; see high temperature superconductivity for a technology that's been stuck at that stage for a while, even in the face of the helium shortage.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- mohawk 11y ago
  That analysis uses solar panels with 10% efficiency in its calculations...
  - ori_b 11y ago
    10% efficiency is about right for low cost solar cells that have been out in open air for a while. 20% is about right for affordable single crystal cells, and the theoretical maximum efficiency for silicon is 33%. Getting significantly better than 10% is very expensive. Getting beyond about 25% is currently well beyond feasible for large scale power generation.
    - mohawk 11y ago
      Most new panels announced these days top 20% efficiency[1]. Output is guaranteed to 90% after 10 years, 80% after 20, real world often better[2]. [1] https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-SolarCitys-New-PV-Module-the-Worlds-Most-Efficient-Rooftop-Solar-Pane https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-SolarCitys-N... [2] http://sroeco.com/solar/solar-efficiency-losses-over-time/ http://sroeco.com/solar/solar-efficiency-losses-over-time/
- ricw 11y ago
  This argument is one massive false assumption. Renewable energy sources are becoming cheaper and are already cheaper than coal and nuclear. Cheap means they will become pervasive and replace the majority of existing sources. There is technically no reason we couldn't do it [3], rather "the key roadblocks are: climate change denial, the fossil fuels lobby, political inaction, unsustainable energy consumption, outdated energy infrastructure, and financial constraints". It's only a question of time until renewables will kill fossil fuels. If only we'd stop subsidising fossil fuels [2]. The report you're quoting is itself highly questionable. Just as an example, wind speed averages are based on Cambridge, which isn't anywhere near the coast where wind turbines should live. Anything from a comprehensive report. Furthermore, he compares the energy to a random amount of energy (50% of energy consumed by cars). The report itself seems a little bit of warm air. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_transition_in_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_transition_in_Germany [2] http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/fossil-fuels/in-2040-fossil-fuels-still-reign http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/fossil-fuels/in-2... [3] http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v301/n5/full/scientificamerican1109-58.html http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v301/n5/ful...
  - Dn_Ab 11y ago
    It's not a report, it's an almost 400 page book. He doesn't compare random energies, instead he looks at what, under reasonably generous conditions, the daily power budget each energy source could provide per person. The very generous 20kWh/d of power per person is the key point. 6 m/sec is already high, with few places reaching such speeds consistently. And almost no one will reach double that, so you can look at an optimal 17 W/m^2 for wind. http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/global_winds.html http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/global_winds.html In chapter 25, he acknowledges that while the cost of photovoltaics will fall, he does not see it doing so in a timeline that will be useful in terms of getting everything deployed for a ~2050 deadline. Economically speaking, carpeting deserts with concentrating collectors will be the cheaper of the solar options. The book is careful about doing all the math, citing all its sources and carefully explaining the scenarios it models. It is a very good book[+]. But cost is not the only issue—even as prices fall, there is still the problem of land use area. Efficiencies aren't going to pass 30% (without going to much more expensive materials) and for mass production, we can halve that; cheap as panels may someday become, places with high pop densities (on top of seasonal variations/not being near the equator) are going to have trouble meeting their needs. Especially if they don't want to get rid of their curling irons, hair/clothes dryers, toasters and electric stove/kettles. But panels/turbines aren't the whole picture. Already today, panels take up only a fraction of the cost of solar. You ideally, want an MPPT controller. You might need voltage regulators, you'll need a rack for the panel and batteries, an appropriately sized inverter, wiring and installation. Batteries—to save more money long term—you want to oversize them so you rarely hit a low depth of discharge. But more batteries means more panels. You also want enough batteries such that you can wait out ~4 days of low light (speaking from experience, on cloudy days you can go the entire day at ~13% typical amp output). Even those at the equator will only get ~6 good hours of sunlight (~8 hours for an appreciable amount), so even for the best case scenario, 12 hours of storage per person is not going to cut it. Solar is great but it's no panacea. And the math doesn't work out for chemical energy storage. Molten salt storage, compressed air look to be more logical at the grid level but even they won't be sufficient. That said, Mr Theil is also incorrect to place Nuclear in opposition to renewables. Renewables will be in addition to Nuclear [-]. As well as looking into more DC appliances, more HVDC and working out circuit breakers for them, optimal manufacturing layouts such that 'waste output' can be redirected to where it is needed. More energy efficient devices, energy routing algorithms (and a global grid of superconducting HVDC while we're at it—seems far fetched but still at a much higher technological readiness level when compared to fusion), better city planning, climate control with geothermal heatpumps, more material reclamation and recycling, nuclear waste as fuel, carbon capture, extracting CO2 from the ocean for fuel and a cultural move away from an over consuming disposable society. [+] I am biased in that I'd already known the author for one of the best free books on information theory and machine learning. Anyone interested in the link between learning, energy and thermodynamics should see this book as a starting point. http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itprnn/book.pdf http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itprnn/book.pdf [-] Ch. 24 of sewtha.pdf goes into numeric data backed detail on why most build out, waste, cost arguments against nuclear are weak. Personally, I think at best, we only have a couple hundred more years where we can all be justifiably irrationally paranoid over Nuclear. We should have DNA repair down by then.
- cbr 11y ago
  What's wrong with importing power?
  - vlehto 11y ago
    Britain is in very good spot from renewable energy generation point of view. It has lots of wind, tidal and some solar energy too. Countries next to it have worse situation considering renewables and have just as high population density. Importing works if you accept producing electricity for Britain with nuclear power plants located in France or Belgium.
- nl 11y ago
  Note that this doesn't included the price of building the reactors (!). A little research will show what a big cost that is.
- drjesusphd 11y ago
  I love that book. It really opened my eyes to how big the energy problem is.
Shivetya 11y ago
neither are base line power. Storage solutions, as in batteries, do not make me think that the hazards of such large scale deployments of lithium based solutions to be better than more advanced reactor designs we don't use for political reasons.
- ommunist 11y ago
  HMD vortex generator is so disruptive tech for existing energy market that Gritskevitch was offered to abandon his schematics for a lump sum in the late 90-ies. Fortunately his ideas met understanding of Al Gore and inventor now works in the US. But I hear no news about his US based dynamos. upd: Oleg died. This is great loss for humanity. His son has know how and is looking for 10M investment http://www.padrak.com/vesperman/HMD_Presentation.ppt http://www.padrak.com/vesperman/HMD_Presentation.ppt
  - dasv 11y ago
    Hmm. I hate to play the skeptic, but this "HMD vortex generator" looks like a cold fusion device. It somehow fuses deuterium nuclei into alpha particles while their electrons fall out and are harvested. On top of that, the slideshow claims that the rupture of the hydrogen bonds in water generates electricity (!). The fact that it needs both a capacitor and a battery bank to be able to output electricity seems sketchy, too. Edit: The homepage is full of UFO and conspiracy stuff. So, yeah, it very likely is a scam.
jpdus 11y ago
This! In my opinion Thiel does not think far enough and doesn't talk about the real question: Is fission even (economically) competitive? In my opinion (and from what I've read on this subject), it is not and won't be in the foreseeable future. I will quote myself [1]: >People always forget about indirect costs when talking about cheap nuclear energy (risk factors aside). Nobody has ever built a profitable nuclear power plant without substantial government subsidies (way higher than for all renewable energy sources). Operators need government help for security, fuel supply, waste handling and much more. There is no insurance company on earth which will cover a nuclear power plant without state guarantees (ask yourself: Wouldn't a profit oriented insurance company cover these risks, of these were really as low and controllable as people say here?). [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10143081 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10143081
- pdonis 11y ago
  > Is fission even (economically) competitive? Remember that he's talking about a new generation of reactor designs. Also remember that a key driver of the high cost of nuclear energy is lawsuits based on irrational overestimates of the risk of nuclear energy compared to other energy sources. Coal has killed orders of magnitude more people than nuclear, yet nobody ever brings a NIMBY lawsuit to prevent a coal plant from being built. > Wouldn't a profit oriented insurance company cover these risks, of these were really as low and controllable as people say here? The technical risks are not the risks the insurance companies are worried about.
  - merpnderp 11y ago
    This times one hundred. Nuclear in the West is far more expensive than places like China and Vietnam not because western plants are better or safer but because they face incredible legal and regulatory hurdles designed to appease people's irrational fears.
    - chefkoch 11y ago
      Shure, China is atm mostly using a more than 30 year old design bought from france and everyone knows safety is not their primary concern. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Reactor_Technology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Reactor...
ommunist 11y ago
Upvoting this. I must add, we had not uncovered the solar yet, and we barely scratched the potential of HMD generators. Also thorium is quite abundant in Morocco.
thebmax 11y ago
These cost comparisons don't take into account reliability. Power is almost useless if it's not reliable. A large part of your monthly bill goes towards reliablility and transport of power, not just the power itself. A 100% wind or solar grid would require an equal amount of backup gas or coal power in order to provide reliability which essentially doubles these cost estimates. Even now most wind and solar is considered a novelty to most grid operators because you can't take it into account for long term planning. In some cases (like Denmark or Quebec) there exists ample alternatives available for when the wind stops blowing but most jurisdictions don't have this. Considering how smart people in Silicon Valley are the level of ignorance around renewable energy and the'why don't we all use solar panels' mindset is crazy.
- chadgeidel 11y ago
  I don't disagree with your fundamental premise, but "would require an equal amount of backup power" sounds like hyperbole. I haven't read any proposal for "100% replacement" that doesn't take into account energy storage solutions. I think it's perfectly reasonable to question those solutions, but an equal amount of traditional power generation as backup seems excessive.
  - thebmax 11y ago
    Case in point is a very cloudy day with no wind. Depending on where it is demand could be very high if it's cold out and heaters are running full blast. You will essentially need a full load supply to come from somewhere or you'll get rolling blackouts. Some regions can compensate with importing or hydro but otherwise you would have to power up the coal and gas. Batteries could maybe work in the future but again this would drastically increase the cost.
    - nl 11y ago
      Flow batteries dramatically change the cost calculations for energy storage, and are here now. Additionally, most areas are increasingly moving towards decentralised generation which changes the calculations too.
arthurcolle 11y ago
Lazard link: https://www.lazard.com/media/1777/levelized_cost_of_energy_-_version_80.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/1777/levelized_cost_of_energy_-... They have a tendency to break links, so a community-oriented individual might feel inclined to save/cache the link ;)
- bshanks 11y ago
  looks like someone already did: http://wayback.archive.org/web/20151117024445/https://www.lazard.com/media/1777/levelized_cost_of_energy_-_version_80.pdf http://wayback.archive.org/web/20151117024445/https://www.la...
zatkin 11y ago
I remember seeing a lecture in which someone examines all possible energy sources, going through a list of features that an energy source needs to be able to sustain a future we want to live in, but I can't remember what it was called, who it was by, or where it was from...

by T-A 11y ago

pilom 11y ago

The problem is scale. Here is a really good analysis of renewable resources in the UK: http://www.withouthotair.com/ http://www.withouthotair.com/ Conclusion: The UK doesn't receive enough sunlight or have enough wind/waves/tidal pools/land to grow food, power cars (of any kind) and meet other energy needs. The UK can never get all of their energy carbon free without nuclear or importing power. The US is in a better place because of solar in the Southwest but we still don't have the technology/infrastructure to transport all of that power.

ommunist 11y ago
The UK relatively recently backed full cycle of Uranium fuel production in Kazakhstan. Tony Blair became personal advisor to Nazarbayev. And I ve heard, the UK is going to build new nuclear plants. Its supply is secured and the know how will be both French and USSR (Kazakhstan). Those interested can ask themselves, what Atomic Kitten was doing in Astana in 2010?
- guelo 11y ago
  Are you suggesting that UK is going transport electricity from Kazakhstan back to the UK? presumably via Russia? If so, that seems like a really bad plan.
  - ommunist 11y ago
    No, transporting U3O8 is enough. Upd: http://namrc.co.uk/intelligence/uk-new-build-plans/ http://namrc.co.uk/intelligence/uk-new-build-plans/ 4 sites are already acquired for development on British grounds.
    - guelo 11y ago
      Oh sorry I misunderstood that you're talking about fuel production. But this highlights what I think is the main problem with the large scale nuclear energy vision, it would replace oil with Uranium as the root of geopolitical resource control wars.
      - nitrogen 11y ago
        Uranium is fairly abundant AFAIK. Sourcing it is less of a problem than overcoming NIMBY.
        ommunist 11y ago
        Uranium available for enrichment is not fairly abundant. And U ore deposites are distributed far from fair. Like I said, China has no access to deposits, the UK secured for itself. Russia was effectively cut off Kazakh U resources, leaved with a _single_ mine in Chita region.
      - pdkl95 11y ago
        This is nonsense the amount of uranium required is incredibly small compared to oil or coal. We are talking on the order of 1:100,000 or in the case of a proper breeder reactor even less. Worse, this concern is making the usual mistake of only considering uranium. Thorium is a waste product from rare earth mining and is very abundant in the USA (and elsewhere). If we build thorium based reactors, fuel is practically unlimited and free (compared to the costs of running a reactor).
Retric 11y ago
BS, solar is not great in the UK, but your comparing electric generation at 2009 efficiency levels with powering cars, heating using resistance heating etc. (Heat pumps break 100% nominal efficiency by extracting heat from outside air.) It's also perfectly reasonable for the UK to continue to import significant amounts of energy in one form or another and or increase efficiency levels. EX: We can manufacture 40+% efficient solar cells, sure there expensive, but saying the only thing possible is some lower efficiency level is clearly BS. [They use 10% as some sort of arbitrary limit on page 41.] PS: Photovoltaic panels with 20% efficiency are already close to the theoretical limit (see this chapter’s endnotes Current, world record for concentrated solar is 46%.
- johncolanduoni 11y ago
  > PS: Photovoltaic panels with 20% efficiency are already close to the theoretical limit (see this chapter’s endnotes Current, world record for concentrated solar is 46%. They are likely referring to the theoretical limit for crystalline silicon based cells (~30% IIRC). This is due to silicon's particular band gap. The record is held by multi-junction cells, which don't suffer from this limitation (which is part of their problem, as they use materials far more expensive than silicon).
  - Retric 11y ago
    I don't think you need to be overly generous when they suggest the UK needs to be both 100% energy independent and 100% free from fossil fuels, and grow 100% of it's food locally, when the UK imports ~35% of it's electricity in 2013 and ~40% of it's food (1). Let alone fossil fuels. And if we can't meet those goals we need to do X. 1: In 2010, the UK produced 73% of ‘indigenous-type foods’, and is about 60% self-sufficient when exports and local consumption are set against production http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/food/uk-facts.html http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/food/uk-facts.html
    - johncolanduoni 11y ago
      I wasn't arguing for all his calculations, it's just that his evaluation of the theoretical limit of crystalline silicon cells is accurate. He is correct that it is unlikely that they will get much closer to the theoretical limit than 20% in real life situations. Some GenIV nuclear reactor technologies have a somewhat clearer path to viability than multi-junction solar cells, which have not been able to beat traditional cells in a price-to-performance ratio. We don't even know if there exist materials and processes that can replicate the performance without the costs; see high temperature superconductivity for a technology that's been stuck at that stage for a while, even in the face of the helium shortage.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
mohawk 11y ago
That analysis uses solar panels with 10% efficiency in its calculations...
- ori_b 11y ago
  10% efficiency is about right for low cost solar cells that have been out in open air for a while. 20% is about right for affordable single crystal cells, and the theoretical maximum efficiency for silicon is 33%. Getting significantly better than 10% is very expensive. Getting beyond about 25% is currently well beyond feasible for large scale power generation.
  - mohawk 11y ago
    Most new panels announced these days top 20% efficiency[1]. Output is guaranteed to 90% after 10 years, 80% after 20, real world often better[2]. [1] https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-SolarCitys-New-PV-Module-the-Worlds-Most-Efficient-Rooftop-Solar-Pane https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-SolarCitys-N... [2] http://sroeco.com/solar/solar-efficiency-losses-over-time/ http://sroeco.com/solar/solar-efficiency-losses-over-time/
ricw 11y ago
This argument is one massive false assumption. Renewable energy sources are becoming cheaper and are already cheaper than coal and nuclear. Cheap means they will become pervasive and replace the majority of existing sources. There is technically no reason we couldn't do it [3], rather "the key roadblocks are: climate change denial, the fossil fuels lobby, political inaction, unsustainable energy consumption, outdated energy infrastructure, and financial constraints". It's only a question of time until renewables will kill fossil fuels. If only we'd stop subsidising fossil fuels [2]. The report you're quoting is itself highly questionable. Just as an example, wind speed averages are based on Cambridge, which isn't anywhere near the coast where wind turbines should live. Anything from a comprehensive report. Furthermore, he compares the energy to a random amount of energy (50% of energy consumed by cars). The report itself seems a little bit of warm air. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_transition_in_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_transition_in_Germany [2] http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/fossil-fuels/in-2040-fossil-fuels-still-reign http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/fossil-fuels/in-2... [3] http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v301/n5/full/scientificamerican1109-58.html http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v301/n5/ful...
- Dn_Ab 11y ago
  It's not a report, it's an almost 400 page book. He doesn't compare random energies, instead he looks at what, under reasonably generous conditions, the daily power budget each energy source could provide per person. The very generous 20kWh/d of power per person is the key point. 6 m/sec is already high, with few places reaching such speeds consistently. And almost no one will reach double that, so you can look at an optimal 17 W/m^2 for wind. http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/global_winds.html http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/global_winds.html In chapter 25, he acknowledges that while the cost of photovoltaics will fall, he does not see it doing so in a timeline that will be useful in terms of getting everything deployed for a ~2050 deadline. Economically speaking, carpeting deserts with concentrating collectors will be the cheaper of the solar options. The book is careful about doing all the math, citing all its sources and carefully explaining the scenarios it models. It is a very good book[+]. But cost is not the only issue—even as prices fall, there is still the problem of land use area. Efficiencies aren't going to pass 30% (without going to much more expensive materials) and for mass production, we can halve that; cheap as panels may someday become, places with high pop densities (on top of seasonal variations/not being near the equator) are going to have trouble meeting their needs. Especially if they don't want to get rid of their curling irons, hair/clothes dryers, toasters and electric stove/kettles. But panels/turbines aren't the whole picture. Already today, panels take up only a fraction of the cost of solar. You ideally, want an MPPT controller. You might need voltage regulators, you'll need a rack for the panel and batteries, an appropriately sized inverter, wiring and installation. Batteries—to save more money long term—you want to oversize them so you rarely hit a low depth of discharge. But more batteries means more panels. You also want enough batteries such that you can wait out ~4 days of low light (speaking from experience, on cloudy days you can go the entire day at ~13% typical amp output). Even those at the equator will only get ~6 good hours of sunlight (~8 hours for an appreciable amount), so even for the best case scenario, 12 hours of storage per person is not going to cut it. Solar is great but it's no panacea. And the math doesn't work out for chemical energy storage. Molten salt storage, compressed air look to be more logical at the grid level but even they won't be sufficient. That said, Mr Theil is also incorrect to place Nuclear in opposition to renewables. Renewables will be in addition to Nuclear [-]. As well as looking into more DC appliances, more HVDC and working out circuit breakers for them, optimal manufacturing layouts such that 'waste output' can be redirected to where it is needed. More energy efficient devices, energy routing algorithms (and a global grid of superconducting HVDC while we're at it—seems far fetched but still at a much higher technological readiness level when compared to fusion), better city planning, climate control with geothermal heatpumps, more material reclamation and recycling, nuclear waste as fuel, carbon capture, extracting CO2 from the ocean for fuel and a cultural move away from an over consuming disposable society. [+] I am biased in that I'd already known the author for one of the best free books on information theory and machine learning. Anyone interested in the link between learning, energy and thermodynamics should see this book as a starting point. http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itprnn/book.pdf http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itprnn/book.pdf [-] Ch. 24 of sewtha.pdf goes into numeric data backed detail on why most build out, waste, cost arguments against nuclear are weak. Personally, I think at best, we only have a couple hundred more years where we can all be justifiably irrationally paranoid over Nuclear. We should have DNA repair down by then.
cbr 11y ago
What's wrong with importing power?
- vlehto 11y ago
  Britain is in very good spot from renewable energy generation point of view. It has lots of wind, tidal and some solar energy too. Countries next to it have worse situation considering renewables and have just as high population density. Importing works if you accept producing electricity for Britain with nuclear power plants located in France or Belgium.
nl 11y ago
Note that this doesn't included the price of building the reactors (!). A little research will show what a big cost that is.
drjesusphd 11y ago
I love that book. It really opened my eyes to how big the energy problem is.

Shivetya 11y ago

neither are base line power. Storage solutions, as in batteries, do not make me think that the hazards of such large scale deployments of lithium based solutions to be better than more advanced reactor designs we don't use for political reasons.

ommunist 11y ago
HMD vortex generator is so disruptive tech for existing energy market that Gritskevitch was offered to abandon his schematics for a lump sum in the late 90-ies. Fortunately his ideas met understanding of Al Gore and inventor now works in the US. But I hear no news about his US based dynamos. upd: Oleg died. This is great loss for humanity. His son has know how and is looking for 10M investment http://www.padrak.com/vesperman/HMD_Presentation.ppt http://www.padrak.com/vesperman/HMD_Presentation.ppt
- dasv 11y ago
  Hmm. I hate to play the skeptic, but this "HMD vortex generator" looks like a cold fusion device. It somehow fuses deuterium nuclei into alpha particles while their electrons fall out and are harvested. On top of that, the slideshow claims that the rupture of the hydrogen bonds in water generates electricity (!). The fact that it needs both a capacitor and a battery bank to be able to output electricity seems sketchy, too. Edit: The homepage is full of UFO and conspiracy stuff. So, yeah, it very likely is a scam.

jpdus 11y ago

This! In my opinion Thiel does not think far enough and doesn't talk about the real question: Is fission even (economically) competitive? In my opinion (and from what I've read on this subject), it is not and won't be in the foreseeable future. I will quote myself [1]: >People always forget about indirect costs when talking about cheap nuclear energy (risk factors aside). Nobody has ever built a profitable nuclear power plant without substantial government subsidies (way higher than for all renewable energy sources). Operators need government help for security, fuel supply, waste handling and much more. There is no insurance company on earth which will cover a nuclear power plant without state guarantees (ask yourself: Wouldn't a profit oriented insurance company cover these risks, of these were really as low and controllable as people say here?). [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10143081 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10143081

pdonis 11y ago
> Is fission even (economically) competitive? Remember that he's talking about a new generation of reactor designs. Also remember that a key driver of the high cost of nuclear energy is lawsuits based on irrational overestimates of the risk of nuclear energy compared to other energy sources. Coal has killed orders of magnitude more people than nuclear, yet nobody ever brings a NIMBY lawsuit to prevent a coal plant from being built. > Wouldn't a profit oriented insurance company cover these risks, of these were really as low and controllable as people say here? The technical risks are not the risks the insurance companies are worried about.
- merpnderp 11y ago
  This times one hundred. Nuclear in the West is far more expensive than places like China and Vietnam not because western plants are better or safer but because they face incredible legal and regulatory hurdles designed to appease people's irrational fears.
  - chefkoch 11y ago
    Shure, China is atm mostly using a more than 30 year old design bought from france and everyone knows safety is not their primary concern. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Reactor_Technology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Reactor...

ommunist 11y ago

Upvoting this. I must add, we had not uncovered the solar yet, and we barely scratched the potential of HMD generators. Also thorium is quite abundant in Morocco.

thebmax 11y ago

These cost comparisons don't take into account reliability. Power is almost useless if it's not reliable. A large part of your monthly bill goes towards reliablility and transport of power, not just the power itself. A 100% wind or solar grid would require an equal amount of backup gas or coal power in order to provide reliability which essentially doubles these cost estimates. Even now most wind and solar is considered a novelty to most grid operators because you can't take it into account for long term planning. In some cases (like Denmark or Quebec) there exists ample alternatives available for when the wind stops blowing but most jurisdictions don't have this. Considering how smart people in Silicon Valley are the level of ignorance around renewable energy and the'why don't we all use solar panels' mindset is crazy.

chadgeidel 11y ago
I don't disagree with your fundamental premise, but "would require an equal amount of backup power" sounds like hyperbole. I haven't read any proposal for "100% replacement" that doesn't take into account energy storage solutions. I think it's perfectly reasonable to question those solutions, but an equal amount of traditional power generation as backup seems excessive.
- thebmax 11y ago
  Case in point is a very cloudy day with no wind. Depending on where it is demand could be very high if it's cold out and heaters are running full blast. You will essentially need a full load supply to come from somewhere or you'll get rolling blackouts. Some regions can compensate with importing or hydro but otherwise you would have to power up the coal and gas. Batteries could maybe work in the future but again this would drastically increase the cost.
  - nl 11y ago
    Flow batteries dramatically change the cost calculations for energy storage, and are here now. Additionally, most areas are increasingly moving towards decentralised generation which changes the calculations too.

arthurcolle 11y ago

Lazard link: https://www.lazard.com/media/1777/levelized_cost_of_energy_-_version_80.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/1777/levelized_cost_of_energy_-... They have a tendency to break links, so a community-oriented individual might feel inclined to save/cache the link ;)

bshanks 11y ago
looks like someone already did: http://wayback.archive.org/web/20151117024445/https://www.lazard.com/media/1777/levelized_cost_of_energy_-_version_80.pdf http://wayback.archive.org/web/20151117024445/https://www.la...

zatkin 11y ago

I remember seeing a lecture in which someone examines all possible energy sources, going through a list of features that an energy source needs to be able to sustain a future we want to live in, but I can't remember what it was called, who it was by, or where it was from...