3 ms·
In short: In some important uses of statistical model building, traditional regression analysis doesn't work or fit very well. One of the reasons to use regre
by graycat 11y ago
In short: In some important uses of statistical model building, traditional regression analysis doesn't work or fit very well.
One of the reasons to use regression was to look at the regression coefficients as guides to the importance of the corresponding variables. Well, that was always a bit fishy anyway for more than just a differential, i.e., partial derivative, view.
In some important applications, e.g., with some really complicated
biomedical data,
instead of so much emphasis on the coefficients, what is really needed
is a model with some accurate predictions. So to get such predictions, we can drop the emphasis on just traditional regression analysis and interpreting
its coefficients and, instead, use much more general means of model building.
Relevant old approaches have been Fourier methods for band limited smoothing and interpolation, multivariate least squares spline interpolation, and categorical data analysis, e.g., logistic regression with log-linear going way back in the math for the social sciences.
Then Breiman and others did Classification and Regression Trees -- a.k.a., CART for which there is software. In short, build a tree: Start at the root node. Take the input data and partition it into two collections, put each collection in a node that is a child of the root node, and fit each collection separately. Then split those two nodes similarly.
Then maybe have a good fit
to the data and good predicted
values. However,
have lost the considerable
advantages of traditional regression analysis, but also didn't have or use the sometimes severe assumptions of that old analysis.
With traditional regression, had
a lot in statistical hypothesis
tests, etc., to evaluate the
quality of the work, but with
the tree, etc. don't have such things.
So, for the tree, evaluate the
quality by seeing how accurate
the model is on a second collection
of data, test data, statistically similar
to the first collection used
to find the tree. If
the model is accurate on
the test data, then maybe
have some good work.
Else try again and then
do some more statistical
work to avoid a case of
just getting a spurious fit
from just trying until got
lucky.
Since
I have a lot of respect for
Breiman, I'm willing to
take seriously whatever he
wrote.