Theoretically, sure, but practically the amount of turbulence experienced by a supersonic rocket (all of them, except those that blow up in the first 10-30 seco

Theoretically, sure, but practically the amount of turbulence experienced by a supersonic rocket (all of them, except those that blow up in the first 10-30 seconds after lift off) is just insane. Any sort of errors that you would have in the calculation describing the initial explosion (already largely unknown because it's an uncharacterized/unstudied catastrophic failure) would only compound over and over again for minutes until they hit the earth. Most rocket pieces are very dense, like all of the high pressure & cold temperature fuel storage and distribution, and those that don't vaporize tend to have a very high terminal velocity, some even supersonic themselves, adding more turbulence to the calculation. Most catastrophic failures also happen with a decent amount of propellant so there's now a low pressure (less than 1 atm) explosion fueled by literally tons of volatile high pressure liquid which creates even more uncertainty. Oh and hey, since the rocket carries all of its own oxidizer, the explosion usually isn't limited by the availability of atmospheric oxygen. Simply put, every step in this chain of events is mind bogglingly chaotic and nondeterministic. You can create boundaries for how far the pieces could have possibly traveled using assumptions based on the laws of physics, but even at an altitude of 10km, perfect GPS pre-failure, and subsonic speeds we're talking about an area tens of kilometers in radius before you account for ocean currents that quickly expands to an area that is hundreds of kilometers in radius. All of this happens before the first search ship is even in the area (fastest boat is about 100km/h and that's a racing yacht incapable of search and recovery). This truly is an intractable problem until we have radar covering every cubic kilometer of the earth, and even then it'll still be really difficult.