3 ms·
> while there is no such similar statement for a method that depends on the experimenter's personal beliefs The posterior probability P(H|D) is exactly this ki
by ivan_k 11y ago
> while there is no such similar statement for a method that depends on the experimenter's personal beliefs
The posterior probability P(H|D) is exactly this kind of statement. You say "Based on the data, I am 78% sure that the coin is biased". I think this is both more direct and interpretable.
- ryanmonroe 11y agoBy "similar statement" I meant a statement about how often the method will lead you to the incorrect conclusion. If you can't quantify that, it seems to me you don't have any basis for claiming your method "works".
- ivan_k 11y agoIf that is what you meant, than you are getting in the realm of hypothesis testing. The best equivalent of a p-value is then an anabashedly named "Bayes factor" [1], which is a ratio of posterior probabilities for competing hypotheses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_factor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_factor
- ryanmonroe 11y agoThanks, didn't know about this.