4 ms·
The author seems to imply that frequentists are not just wrong but borderline malicious – they use all sorts of ad hoc procedures, have no theoretical justifica
by stdbrouw 11y ago
The author seems to imply that frequentists are not just wrong but borderline malicious – they use all sorts of ad hoc procedures, have no theoretical justification for anything they're doing, and so on and so on. But in fact, there is an extensive body of theory about when you can "throw away information" (cf. minimally sufficient statistics), the difference between P(D|H) and P(H|D) (cf. likelihood theory) and so on. His undergraduate textbook might not talk about all that, but a graduate textbook sure would -- it's certainly not lore full of implicit assumptions that everyone's forgotten.
A much better explanation of what is happening to statistics is this: flipping P(D|H) to P(H|D) used to be really hard, so we came up with all sorts of tricks to either approximate it or to get by without having to bother about P(H|D) at all, things like p-values. Now there's computers and really good sampling algorithms so we don't have to use the approximations anymore. But some people still prefer the approximations because they're used to them. There. No incompetence or malice involved.
Other than that, if you ignore the tone of the article, it's an insightful read if you're new to Bayesian statistics and want to understand what's the point.
- eterm 11y agoThe author is also wrong when he states, "We used the entire sequence, not just the number of heads", but the the calculation only uses the number of heads and tails, and not the sequence. The calcuation used: > sum[p^12*(1 - p)^8 | p <- [0,0.1..1]] / 11 Does not have anything marking position. You would get the same results with the sequence HHHHHHHHTTTTTTTTTTTT as TTHHTHTTHHTHTTTTHTTH To say "In other words, we’ve shown it’s fine to forget the particular sequence and only count the number of heads after all. What is not fine is doing so without justification." is a confused conclusion from his statements, he hasn't actually justified it, he's just used a calculation that doesn't use position (but he claimed it did) then when it got to the same answer ignoring position then said "so position doesn't matter!". But you would have a hard time believing sequence 1 above was random.
- ska 11y agoYes, it's unfortunately sloppy and overstates the case, but there is interesting material in there.