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A sequence corresponds to multiple draws from that population, and a statistic (number of successes / number of draws) is a summarization of those draws in a si
by stdbrouw 11y ago
A sequence corresponds to multiple draws from that population, and a statistic (number of successes / number of draws) is a summarization of those draws in a single number. The author isn't really arguing that a binomial distribution is not the right way to model this problem, but that the way frequentist statistics weighs the evidence is faulty.
Edit: although, actually, you're right that the author does at one point say "Why should all sequences containing exactly 12 heads be treated the same?" but then goes on to model everything with the binomial distribution anyway.
- lottin 11y agoSince each draw is independent from each other (I don't think anyone disputes that), the order is irrelevant. You want to think about it as a set, not as a sequence.