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Ask HN: Do you think self-driving cars are feasable at all?

• smt88 11y ago
  There are self-driving planes and trains. Commercial planes mostly drive themselves. People had the same qualms about automated elevators when those were new.
  • CyberFonic 11y ago
    The Air France crash over the Atlantic demonstrates exactly why auto-pilots are far from ideal. The plane got into a situation which was outside of the auto-pilot's envelope of operations. It gave control back to the pilots who were jarred by the sudden reversion to manual control, panicked and did one wrong after another. Trains and elevators are different - they run on tracks/guides and do not have any unforeseeable obstacles, operating conditions thrown at them. Furthermore, there are several mechanical safety interlocks that will stop any out of control situations. Planes and cars have to operate under conditions with far more uncontrollable variables.
    • stephenr 11y ago
      > Trains and elevators are different - they run on tracks/guides and do not have any unforeseeable obstacles I don't think it's really true that they "do not have any unforeseen obstacles". A lot of random shit can happen on a train line, even when it's got limited access lines like the underground driverless trains linking the terminals at Hong Kong airport. I think its more that they "do not have any possible choices except go, and (try to) stop". If a Train is "automatic" it has three tasks: start when loaded. stop at pre-determined locations. try to stop if something is detected in the way.
  • ksherlock 11y ago
    planes are much simpler -- the first autopilot was in 1912, the first auto landing in the 1960s.
• mod 11y ago
  Given their track record, I think they're very feasible. Public adoption & trust is another story.
  • CyberFonic 11y ago
    With the recent problems with VW, Jeep, Toyota, Fiat, et al. I'd say the level of public trust is at rock bottom.
    • jack9 11y ago
      You think so? Trust in measurements to qualify for government regulation are in question, not car performance or appearance. Toyota sales have not dipped surreptitiously (demand increased in oct). http://www.autoblog.com/2015/11/04/october-2015-the-better-than-looks-edition/ http://www.autoblog.com/2015/11/04/october-2015-the-better-t...
• ams6110 11y ago
  I think truly autonomous self driving cars are 20-50 years away.
• tiredwired 11y ago
  Seems like they should start with something less risky like self-driving lawnmowers, self-walking dog walker, self-fishing fishing rod, self-flying kite. Every see those robot soccer matches?
  • akg_67 11y ago
    Yep. Ask this question again, once you find a self-driving golf cart that navigates golf course without problems.
  • atroyn 11y ago
    Bosch already has a line of automated lawn mowers. You can buy one today.
    • tiredwired 11y ago
      It requires a perimeter wire embedded in the ground to define boundaries. Why aren't they using the tech the self-driving cars claim to have?
      • atroyn 11y ago
        Because that would make it more expensive than people are willing to pay for an autonomous lawnmower. What a strange comparison to make, lawnmowers don't need LIDAR.
  • dvdcxn 11y ago
    This is a bit of a fallacious to be honest. How much insight will these endevours offer to self driving cars? I don't think there will be a lot of overlap. And why do the low hanging fruit first when we have the technology and manpower to go for the juicer stuff?
• CyberFonic 11y ago
  Software is far from 100% trustworthy. With the current state of art we cannot be certain that any software is secure, hack-proof and provable correct under all operating conditions. A self-driving car is a canonical example of lots of software, sensors and actuators working seamlessly and robustly at all times. The recent issues with VW, Jeep, Toyota clearly demonstrates that car manufacturers can't even get human controlled cars to be 100% trustworthy. What chance is there that they'll be any better with a self-driving car?
  • superuser2 11y ago
    It's utterly ridiculous that "100% trustworthy" would be considered relevant here. All self-driving cars have to be is better than humans, who are approximately 0% trustworthy. If a self-driving car is better than a human who is drunk, eating, and texting all at the same time, then it's already a safety improvement.
    • alexandrerond 11y ago
      And still a human seems to know how to deal with a 0% trustworthy human better on the road. We are still busy making self-driving cars follow the rules, but much of the driving is to predict how other people bend them...
      • GFischer 11y ago
        "still a human seems to know how to deal with a 0% trustworthy human better on the road" I don't think they cope that well. If you're under 35, a car accident is your main worry (other than suicide): Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death in the U.S. More than 33,000 people died from motor vehicle crashes in 2013 alone http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/overview/key_data.html http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/overview/key_data.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/mortality-statistics--deaths-registered-in-england-and-wales--series-dr-/2012/sty-causes-of-death.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/mortality-statistics--de...
        • 11y ago
• joeclark77 11y ago
  I think the societies that are culturally willing to embrace self-driving cars are the ones that already have better solutions. I'm talking about the downtowns of major cities, Silicon Valley, university districts, etc. In most cases bicycles, light rail, or buses are already being used and are more efficient than a million people riding alone in self-driving cars. If anything, these are the places that might ban private car ownership as population density increases. On the other hand, no self-respecting country boy is going to want to give up the freedom and independence that he gets from driving his own vehicle. Separating yourself from the herd is a value proposition, and self-driving cars can't compete with it. What's left? 1. In some cases suburbanites might use self-driving cars to get from the suburbs to the edge of the car-free downtown zone. It's possible the technology would work for them, but, do any of them perceive an unmet need? Is there anybody out there really frustrated by having to look at the road during their commute? I would think there's a lot more incentive to find ways to shorten the commute, than to simply make it hands free. 2. Interstate trucking is a possible use case, if people would tolerate it. You'd need a plurality of states to get on board with the idea of a very potentially deadly machine going on autopilot, and you'd need to sort out who's liable when people are killed by it. And you need to figure out the "last mile" -- who drives the truck after it takes the exit off the highway. There's a real shortage of truck drivers in the world, so this is probably the one market where there's a commercial incentive to develop the tech, though.
• firebones 11y ago
  Here's the deal: Self-driving cars will succeed, but only when relegated to dedicated, communal, self-driving equivalents of HOV lanes. In a controlled environment, when it's only necessary to deal with exceptions, self-driving cars will rule. Outside the HOV lane, self-driving cars will be more like GPS-Assist++. Human required, but the broadstrokes navagation off-loaded to the computer. The last mile problem of figuring out where to park, last minute adjustments, etc., will still be human-led.
• Peroni 11y ago
  >There are hardly self-driving trains. Almost all of London's tube network is self-driving. The human operator controls opening and closing of the doors and that's about it.
  • alexandrerond 11y ago
    Yes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_subway_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_... And many others, but not so many compared to the whole list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metro_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metro_systems At least, I'd like to think this is a success, but it's taken how many years to get here, and it's a closed system with so many variables under control compared to a car.
• atroyn 11y ago
  A lot of the discussion in this thread focuses on culture annd safety, but I think the main lever of autonomous vehicles will be economics. For example, cargo vehicles not carrying any passengers or a driver would represent a huge cost savings in logistics. There will be some class of autonomous vehicles, perhaps remotely supervised, regularly on the road within a decade. They may not be consumer passenger vehicles, but they don't need to be to make a huge impact. To focus on just whether your car will dive itself is static thinking - what new opportunities could autonomous transport create?
• infamouscow 11y ago
  I'm waiting for someone to write about the incredible privacy that we are going to have to relinquish when municipalities have their own fleets of self-driving cars and they are the only way to get around. But nobody wants to talk about it yet.
  • kspaans 11y ago
    Your smartphone already tracks everywhere you go. Similarly it's not hard for someone to watch you if you walk/bike and possibly also if you drive (license plate recognition or OnStar type tracking). How is it materially different to give ownership of that to your local municipality (who already knows where you live and probably how much water/electricity you use)? Municipal government is probably the one you have the most control over.
• m0llusk 11y ago
  The most reasonable expectation would be for incremental improvement. There are already a wide range of self-driving small cargo carriers in warehouses, manufacturing facilities, hospitals, and large archives. Currently product distribution is dominated by men driving trucks and using hand carts, but for high density locales and basic stocking tasks these jobs are being targeted for automation using existing technologies.
• J-dawg 11y ago
  I don't know how many years we are from truly autonomous cars that can take you door-to-door with no human intervention other than keying in the destination. There seem to be so many hurdles to overcome that any prediction is likely to be wrong. However I think we're going to see more and more 'driver assistance' like Tesla's autopilot mode where the driver remains responsible for the car. This kind of tech will get more reliable and trickle down to cheaper models, to the point where most highway / motorway driving is done in semi-autonomous mode. When this happens (and accident rates go down), people and governments will be much more ready to embrace fully autonomous cars. Has anyone here experienced the Tesla autopilot? There are some fun videos on YouTube. It seems impressive but still a little unreliable.
• satuim 11y ago
  Yes. But not in 10-15 years. As everyone else is saying they need to be much more thoroughly tested and approved.