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> the Bayesian approach is to split the data into training and test sets, and verify how much of it holds. The Bayesian approach would be to say that the thing
by SEMW 11y ago
> the Bayesian approach is to split the data into training and test sets, and verify how much of it holds.
The Bayesian approach would be to say that the thing you generally want to know isn't {the probability of getting this result by chance if the hypothesis is false}, it's the probability the hypothesis is true, given everything you know up to and including the new data.
So they would calculate p(hypothesis is true given the new data) using Bayes theorem -- which requires inputting what they thought p(hypothesis is true) was at the start of the experiment, before the new data came in.
http://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes http://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes is a decent explanation.