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Moreover, it seems to assume that being lucky is the same as being first. Providing examples of second-comers who were successful (VHS, DOS) is not a sufficient
by paulgb 17y ago
Moreover, it seems to assume that being lucky is the same as being first. Providing examples of second-comers who were successful (VHS, DOS) is not a sufficient argument that luck doesn't matter in markets.
Interesting read, though.
- Semiapies 17y agoMost claims of "luck" don't hold up when examined closely. There are rather few cases of some technology being superior in every conceivable way to its active competitor; usually, each has relative pros and cons. Beta wasn't superior in every way to VHS - at every point while they were still earnestly competing, VHS tapes had longer run times. Early Beta tapes only lasted one hour, not even letting you record an entire movie. (ETA: It was very popular to record on LP and SLP modes in VHS, further reducing quality to get extra recording time. Recording fidelity wasn't a winning factor.) Almost as bad, Sony waited a long time to license the format, turning away interested manufacturers who then produced VHS machines. End result? A (more) open format that was both more available and distinctly superior in an key aspect won out. Not exactly a roll of the dice.