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The delusion is thinking that SpaceX is going to lead the space frontier

4 points by guardian5x 11y ago

mtgx 11y ago
It's probably not what you're thinking (technology leadership failure): > The delusion is thinking that SpaceX is going to lead the space frontier. That’s just not going to happen, and it’s not going to happen for three really good reasons: One, it is very expensive. Two, it is very dangerous to do it first. Three, there is essentially no return on that investment that you’ve put in for having done it first. So if you’re going to bring in investors or venture capitalists and say, "Hey, I have an idea, I want to put the first humans on Mars." They’ll ask, "How much will it cost?" You say, "A lot." They’ll ask, "Is it dangerous?" You’ll say, "Yes, people will probably die." They’ll ask, "What’s the return on investment?" and you’ll say "Probably nothing, initially." It’s a five-minute meeting. Corporations need business models, and they need to satisfy shareholders, public or private.
pedalpete 11y ago
I feel like NDT had a word quotient for 'delusion', or does he always speak like that. Not all dreams are delusions. I particularly like how he started out saying he is horrible at predictions, and then continued to make predictions. Where I think his specific comment regarding SpaceX MIGHT be flawed is that SpaceX isn't a company that is building a rocket to the moon. SpaceX is a company that puts things in space. It makes deliveries to the space station, launches satellites, etc. It has the potential to get people to Mars and it's leader openly discusses that he wants to do that. But he hasn't laid out the step-by-step plan to get there. SpaceX, as far as I know, doesn't have a ship designed to go to Mars, they're still working on the near-space goals. Apple didn't start in 1976 and start building an iPhone. They started with what was possible at the time, and continued building their technology, expertise and bank account so that when the time came, they were ready. Of course, people will probably shout "that isn't true", but I suggest it is because we all likely knew that one day we would be carrying computers in our pockets, just like we 'know' that one day we won't be carry computers in our pockets and they will just be ubiquitous. Just like SpaceX doesn't have designs for a ship to Mars, they know that one day we'll go there, and they have that keenly in their sights as a long-term vision.

4 points by guardian5x 11y ago

mtgx 11y ago

It's probably not what you're thinking (technology leadership failure): > The delusion is thinking that SpaceX is going to lead the space frontier. That’s just not going to happen, and it’s not going to happen for three really good reasons: One, it is very expensive. Two, it is very dangerous to do it first. Three, there is essentially no return on that investment that you’ve put in for having done it first. So if you’re going to bring in investors or venture capitalists and say, "Hey, I have an idea, I want to put the first humans on Mars." They’ll ask, "How much will it cost?" You say, "A lot." They’ll ask, "Is it dangerous?" You’ll say, "Yes, people will probably die." They’ll ask, "What’s the return on investment?" and you’ll say "Probably nothing, initially." It’s a five-minute meeting. Corporations need business models, and they need to satisfy shareholders, public or private.

pedalpete 11y ago

I feel like NDT had a word quotient for 'delusion', or does he always speak like that. Not all dreams are delusions. I particularly like how he started out saying he is horrible at predictions, and then continued to make predictions. Where I think his specific comment regarding SpaceX MIGHT be flawed is that SpaceX isn't a company that is building a rocket to the moon. SpaceX is a company that puts things in space. It makes deliveries to the space station, launches satellites, etc. It has the potential to get people to Mars and it's leader openly discusses that he wants to do that. But he hasn't laid out the step-by-step plan to get there. SpaceX, as far as I know, doesn't have a ship designed to go to Mars, they're still working on the near-space goals. Apple didn't start in 1976 and start building an iPhone. They started with what was possible at the time, and continued building their technology, expertise and bank account so that when the time came, they were ready. Of course, people will probably shout "that isn't true", but I suggest it is because we all likely knew that one day we would be carrying computers in our pockets, just like we 'know' that one day we won't be carry computers in our pockets and they will just be ubiquitous. Just like SpaceX doesn't have designs for a ship to Mars, they know that one day we'll go there, and they have that keenly in their sights as a long-term vision.