^On larger conflicts, I think it's a real danger. France is hysterical right now, and I imagine they are considering an "all arms" invasion with Russia at thei

^On larger conflicts, I think it's a real danger. France is hysterical right now, and I imagine they are considering an "all arms" invasion with Russia at their side. There is growing international support for Kurdish independence. Even Assad might agree to it. This is a Turkish red line. Turkey is still keen to oust Assad. The longer IS & other jihadis can demonstrate unprecedented achievements like capturing and holding territory, the more the danger grow in other ME countries. Russia has lost a civilian airliner to IS & a military jet to Turkey in a few weeks. The combination of successful IS terrorism, daily reports of raids on Jihadi safe houses, and massive refugee migration has made Syria the number 1 political issue everywhere in Europe. It's all a tinderbox and Turkey just shot down a Russian jet.