3 ms·

I think the way to think of it is as a violation of airspace in the context of being belligerents by proxy. For various reasons (confessional and otherwise)Tur

by netcan 11y ago

I think the way to think of it is as a violation of airspace in the context of being belligerents by proxy. For various reasons (confessional and otherwise)Turkey has been firmly and outspokenly anti-Assad since the early demonstrations and since they evolved into civil war. Russia has intervened effectively on behalf of the Assad regime. Since the Assad's failure today would almost certainly result in a jihadist Syria, this is not looking so terrible to the rest of Turkey's NATO allies, like France. Turkey is by some (fairly loose) definition engaged in proxy war with Russia. At the same time Lebanese, Iraqi & Syrian airspaces to their south and east are free-for-alls with 8 national forces bombing as they see fit in Syria. This is probably making Turkey paranoid about their own air space. I suspect they see/saw this as Russia testing their resolve to defend their border. There have been previous violations and stern warning had been made. There's also the possibility that this is a bad decision made by field officers in the short decision window they had.

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
netcan 11y ago
^On larger conflicts, I think it's a real danger. France is hysterical right now, and I imagine they are considering an "all arms" invasion with Russia at their side. There is growing international support for Kurdish independence. Even Assad might agree to it. This is a Turkish red line. Turkey is still keen to oust Assad. The longer IS & other jihadis can demonstrate unprecedented achievements like capturing and holding territory, the more the danger grow in other ME countries. Russia has lost a civilian airliner to IS & a military jet to Turkey in a few weeks. The combination of successful IS terrorism, daily reports of raids on Jihadi safe houses, and massive refugee migration has made Syria the number 1 political issue everywhere in Europe. It's all a tinderbox and Turkey just shot down a Russian jet.
- ConceptJunkie 11y ago
  And it occurred to me that Russia might have "accidentally" intruded into Turkey's airspace to provoke a reaction to give Russia a pretext to take stronger action in Syria. I don't know if that even makes sense, but Russia is in the driver's seat. The U.S. is taking a nap.
  - WalterSear 11y ago
    For 9 seconds. I don't see how they could have been warning him for 10 minutes if he was over their airspace for nine seconds.
    - zensavona 11y ago
      Well they probably were warning him before he hit Turkish airspace
ckozlowski 11y ago
>There's also the possibility that this is a bad decision made by field officers in the short decision window they had. That's an excellent point, and one I think is often missed. These are decisions made by commanders in the field in a short amount of time, with limited information. They have many concerns, worries, and instructions to comply with. What if it was misidentified as a Russian plane? What if they did nothing, and the plane dropped bombs on a Turkish village? There's lots of potential outcomes, limited information, and consequences and repercussions far beyond the event itself. And it's a mistake to think national leaders are involved directly in this process. To give my personal views for a moment here, this is why it's so important they recognize, that whenever force is involved, regardless of intent, aim, or goal, it's messy, and things like this will occur, without fail. There will be accidents, without fail.
- 100timesthis 11y ago
  I think this is a fairly known scenarios, that strategists and leaders taught well in advance with all possible and military personnel are trained on. I also read in an article that the order to shot it down came from the turkish president.
  - antillean 11y ago
    > I also read in an article that the order to shot it down came from the turkish president. Can you link to that article?
    - 100timesthis 11y ago
      I can't remember which source it was was I read different articles from FB trending news, I tried to find it but couldn't, later I'll have another go.
azth 11y ago
> almost certainly result in a jihadist Syria What does that even mean?

by netcan 11y ago

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

netcan 11y ago

^On larger conflicts, I think it's a real danger. France is hysterical right now, and I imagine they are considering an "all arms" invasion with Russia at their side. There is growing international support for Kurdish independence. Even Assad might agree to it. This is a Turkish red line. Turkey is still keen to oust Assad. The longer IS & other jihadis can demonstrate unprecedented achievements like capturing and holding territory, the more the danger grow in other ME countries. Russia has lost a civilian airliner to IS & a military jet to Turkey in a few weeks. The combination of successful IS terrorism, daily reports of raids on Jihadi safe houses, and massive refugee migration has made Syria the number 1 political issue everywhere in Europe. It's all a tinderbox and Turkey just shot down a Russian jet.

ConceptJunkie 11y ago
And it occurred to me that Russia might have "accidentally" intruded into Turkey's airspace to provoke a reaction to give Russia a pretext to take stronger action in Syria. I don't know if that even makes sense, but Russia is in the driver's seat. The U.S. is taking a nap.
- WalterSear 11y ago
  For 9 seconds. I don't see how they could have been warning him for 10 minutes if he was over their airspace for nine seconds.
  - zensavona 11y ago
    Well they probably were warning him before he hit Turkish airspace

ckozlowski 11y ago

>There's also the possibility that this is a bad decision made by field officers in the short decision window they had. That's an excellent point, and one I think is often missed. These are decisions made by commanders in the field in a short amount of time, with limited information. They have many concerns, worries, and instructions to comply with. What if it was misidentified as a Russian plane? What if they did nothing, and the plane dropped bombs on a Turkish village? There's lots of potential outcomes, limited information, and consequences and repercussions far beyond the event itself. And it's a mistake to think national leaders are involved directly in this process. To give my personal views for a moment here, this is why it's so important they recognize, that whenever force is involved, regardless of intent, aim, or goal, it's messy, and things like this will occur, without fail. There will be accidents, without fail.

100timesthis 11y ago
I think this is a fairly known scenarios, that strategists and leaders taught well in advance with all possible and military personnel are trained on. I also read in an article that the order to shot it down came from the turkish president.
- antillean 11y ago
  > I also read in an article that the order to shot it down came from the turkish president. Can you link to that article?
  - 100timesthis 11y ago
    I can't remember which source it was was I read different articles from FB trending news, I tried to find it but couldn't, later I'll have another go.

azth 11y ago

> almost certainly result in a jihadist Syria What does that even mean?