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The next time a Russian plane observes a Turkish fighter plane approaching, it will be more motivated to react, it can be faster on the trigger, and then it's o

by acqq 11y ago

The next time a Russian plane observes a Turkish fighter plane approaching, it will be more motivated to react, it can be faster on the trigger, and then it's one NATO plane down, and then the NATO can escalate etc. On another side, the area where "IS free to operate" is still huge: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_86737733_iraq_syria_air_strikes_624_v49.png http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_... On the third side: Turkey doesn't like that Russia bombs also the Turkmens in Syria in the areas controlled by the rebels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-between-aiding-turkmen-and-economic-dependence-on-russia http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-b... "Ömer Abdullah, commander of the Turkmen Sultan Abdülhamit Brigade called on Turkey’s government to intervene to halt the month-long offensive, the Cihan news agency reported. “We are trying to survive under unbearable brutality and we need Turkey’s help,” Abdullah said. “Every day our Turkmen brothers are dying. We expect the government to support us … Why are we left alone?” Abdullah said his forces were under attack from the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iranian forces. “I don’t understand why our Muslim brothers remain silent. We need all kinds of support. It’s impossible to survive under such heavy bombardment,” he said. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) was accused of involvement in clandestine arms shipments to Turkmen forces earlier this year. Cumhuriyet newspaper published a report on arms smuggling on 29 May that included images of weapons allegedly carried by trucks operated by MIT. Mehmet Şandır, a former Nationalist Movement party MP, told Today’s Zaman newspaper that Turkmens were facing ethnic cleansing in northern Syria."

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
"motivated to react"-like turning away from the Turkish border at full afterburner? Alarmism and freaking out doesn't do anyone any good.
- acqq 11y ago
  See the map of the bombings (the post above). There is a huge bombing activity near the Turkish border. "Turning away from the border" would mean stop such operations. It's obvious that Turkey intentionally overreacts. See also honestcoyote's comment here.
  - ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
    With all due respect, nothing except our own opinions are "obvious" at this time.
    - acqq 11y ago
      See other comments here, the plane was obviously only some seconds over Turkey and therefore already flying out of territory. It's an ambush-kind of attack. But Turkey can surely still claim it protected its territory.
      - dragonwriter 11y ago
        > See other comments here, the plane was obviously only some seconds over Turkey and therefore already flying out of territory. This was not an isolated incident, many incursions have occurred since Russia started its operations in Syria, and Turkey has warned, repeatedly, that if aerial incursions continued, it would result in planes being shot down. It seems to me Russia has been deliberately sending a message by the continued incursions, and that Turkey has responded to that message in exactly the way it said it would (and the only way possible other than accept that it will become a vassal of Russia.)
        acqq 11y ago
        "the only way possible other than accept that it will become a vassal of Russia." So a few seconds of a flight by a plane from a country supposedly on the same side against the ISIS, over the few km of the territory, is equal to becoming a vassal of a said country. So the only way possible is shooting the plane. Thanks for explaining your view.
        dragonwriter 11y ago
        > So a few seconds of a flight by a plane from a country supposedly on the same side against the ISIS, over the few km of the territory, is equal to becoming a vassal of a said country. No, the "few seconds" and the relationship to Daesh are irrelevant. The continued incursions into sovereign territory by a country which has engaged in such incursions without permission and been publicly threatened with force if it does not cease means that. (Anyway, Russia is attacking opponents of the Assad regime, not just Daesh, including non-Daesh forces which are supported by Turkey. That the set of entities Turkey opposes in Syria and the set Russia opposes overlap because both include Daesh does not mean that they are on the same side.)
pjc50 11y ago
I very much doubt it's in the Russian rules of engagement to fire on NATO aircraft over third-party territory.
- acqq 11y ago
  But it is in NATO rules of engagement to fire on Russian aircraft over third-party territory? Obviously there is some kind of willfulness for the escalation and the tolerance levels are never infinite.
  - merpnderp 11y ago
    That NATO fired on a Russian aircraft over third-party territory is not a fact. Turkey has offered evidence that the Russian aircraft was over a thin sliver of Turkish territory.
    - acqq 11y ago
      The map here: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/06EE/production/_86847710_4244121f-6f25-419b-a113-d94603724eeb.jpg http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/06EE/production/_... And according to the Google Maps, it was cca 3 km crossed during the whole flight, which means the plane was effectively just some seconds over what's considered Turkey and obviously flying out of the territory.
      - merpnderp 11y ago
        I agree with your parent statement that there is a Turkish willfulness to escalate. Flying over sovereign territory for 2 seconds, with a clear exist trajectory, isn't usually considered attack worthy. But it is not unlikely that this was Turkey taking what it considered a legitimate attack as revenge for Russian attacks on ethnic Turks in Syria.

by acqq 11y ago

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago

"motivated to react"-like turning away from the Turkish border at full afterburner? Alarmism and freaking out doesn't do anyone any good.

acqq 11y ago
See the map of the bombings (the post above). There is a huge bombing activity near the Turkish border. "Turning away from the border" would mean stop such operations. It's obvious that Turkey intentionally overreacts. See also honestcoyote's comment here.
- ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
  With all due respect, nothing except our own opinions are "obvious" at this time.
  - acqq 11y ago
    See other comments here, the plane was obviously only some seconds over Turkey and therefore already flying out of territory. It's an ambush-kind of attack. But Turkey can surely still claim it protected its territory.
    - dragonwriter 11y ago
      > See other comments here, the plane was obviously only some seconds over Turkey and therefore already flying out of territory. This was not an isolated incident, many incursions have occurred since Russia started its operations in Syria, and Turkey has warned, repeatedly, that if aerial incursions continued, it would result in planes being shot down. It seems to me Russia has been deliberately sending a message by the continued incursions, and that Turkey has responded to that message in exactly the way it said it would (and the only way possible other than accept that it will become a vassal of Russia.)
      - acqq 11y ago
        "the only way possible other than accept that it will become a vassal of Russia." So a few seconds of a flight by a plane from a country supposedly on the same side against the ISIS, over the few km of the territory, is equal to becoming a vassal of a said country. So the only way possible is shooting the plane. Thanks for explaining your view.
        dragonwriter 11y ago
        > So a few seconds of a flight by a plane from a country supposedly on the same side against the ISIS, over the few km of the territory, is equal to becoming a vassal of a said country. No, the "few seconds" and the relationship to Daesh are irrelevant. The continued incursions into sovereign territory by a country which has engaged in such incursions without permission and been publicly threatened with force if it does not cease means that. (Anyway, Russia is attacking opponents of the Assad regime, not just Daesh, including non-Daesh forces which are supported by Turkey. That the set of entities Turkey opposes in Syria and the set Russia opposes overlap because both include Daesh does not mean that they are on the same side.)

pjc50 11y ago

I very much doubt it's in the Russian rules of engagement to fire on NATO aircraft over third-party territory.

acqq 11y ago
But it is in NATO rules of engagement to fire on Russian aircraft over third-party territory? Obviously there is some kind of willfulness for the escalation and the tolerance levels are never infinite.
- merpnderp 11y ago
  That NATO fired on a Russian aircraft over third-party territory is not a fact. Turkey has offered evidence that the Russian aircraft was over a thin sliver of Turkish territory.
  - acqq 11y ago
    The map here: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/06EE/production/_86847710_4244121f-6f25-419b-a113-d94603724eeb.jpg http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/06EE/production/_... And according to the Google Maps, it was cca 3 km crossed during the whole flight, which means the plane was effectively just some seconds over what's considered Turkey and obviously flying out of the territory.
    - merpnderp 11y ago
      I agree with your parent statement that there is a Turkish willfulness to escalate. Flying over sovereign territory for 2 seconds, with a clear exist trajectory, isn't usually considered attack worthy. But it is not unlikely that this was Turkey taking what it considered a legitimate attack as revenge for Russian attacks on ethnic Turks in Syria.