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There is already a big sense of alarm on social media (particularly along new EU/NATO countries) that this can lead up to new confrontation between Russia and N

by jcrei 11y ago

There is already a big sense of alarm on social media (particularly along new EU/NATO countries) that this can lead up to new confrontation between Russia and NATO. I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. Thoughts?

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
Social media can do a horrible job of being alarmist when it comes to news of this sort.
- cinquemb 11y ago
  Yes, I'd prefer cat photos and self referential reports on such by CNN, WAPO, NYT et al……
- petercooper 11y ago
  But I thought we all got realistic when we all died of ebola after dying in the oil-filled Gulf of Mexico after that avian swine flu that was doing the rounds after the entire economic system fell of the rails a decade after comedy died on 9/11.
redwood 11y ago
You're probably right. But folks remember Franz Ferdinand. Caution is merited
- nkrisc 11y ago
  What does the hit Scottish rock band have to do with this? ;)
- omginternets 11y ago
  I get your point, but it's frankly a bit silly. We're nowhere near the political tension and arms-race that enabled WWI. This is decontextualization ad absurdum.
  - redwood 11y ago
    A lot of people disagree and believe the middle east is very much like pre WWI Balkans with great powers sleepwalking with a sense of long peace. Don't very me wrong... this is a different time. But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted
    - omginternets 11y ago
      >But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted Yes, but that's very different from implying that there's been an arms race that could set off a war between major superpowers. You're confusing the destabilization of a large region with a world war. To be clear: the former is very worrying, it's just very different from the latter.
      - redwood 11y ago
        The Serbian national aspirations were not initially global in scope
skylan_q 11y ago
I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. You're likely right. My guess is that they'll find ways to put more pressure on Turkey aside from threatening direct confrontation.
acqq 11y ago
The next time a Russian plane observes a Turkish fighter plane approaching, it will be more motivated to react, it can be faster on the trigger, and then it's one NATO plane down, and then the NATO can escalate etc. On another side, the area where "IS free to operate" is still huge: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_86737733_iraq_syria_air_strikes_624_v49.png http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_... On the third side: Turkey doesn't like that Russia bombs also the Turkmens in Syria in the areas controlled by the rebels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-between-aiding-turkmen-and-economic-dependence-on-russia http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-b... "Ömer Abdullah, commander of the Turkmen Sultan Abdülhamit Brigade called on Turkey’s government to intervene to halt the month-long offensive, the Cihan news agency reported. “We are trying to survive under unbearable brutality and we need Turkey’s help,” Abdullah said. “Every day our Turkmen brothers are dying. We expect the government to support us … Why are we left alone?” Abdullah said his forces were under attack from the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iranian forces. “I don’t understand why our Muslim brothers remain silent. We need all kinds of support. It’s impossible to survive under such heavy bombardment,” he said. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) was accused of involvement in clandestine arms shipments to Turkmen forces earlier this year. Cumhuriyet newspaper published a report on arms smuggling on 29 May that included images of weapons allegedly carried by trucks operated by MIT. Mehmet Şandır, a former Nationalist Movement party MP, told Today’s Zaman newspaper that Turkmens were facing ethnic cleansing in northern Syria."
- ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
  "motivated to react"-like turning away from the Turkish border at full afterburner? Alarmism and freaking out doesn't do anyone any good.
  - acqq 11y ago
    See the map of the bombings (the post above). There is a huge bombing activity near the Turkish border. "Turning away from the border" would mean stop such operations. It's obvious that Turkey intentionally overreacts. See also honestcoyote's comment here.
tomp 11y ago
Russia has other, non-military means of "attacking" Turkey. For example, but cutting off the gas pipelines in the winter ("technical difficulties").
- cryoshon 11y ago
  Sort of like how the Saudis created a glut of oil to drive the price down and crash the Russian economy, no?
  - tomp 11y ago
    That's one possible explanation... Although it seems unlikely that they could actually do that, their share of oil exports is high, but not that high. Even if they could, they have better reasons than hurting Russia - such as simply driving down the price of oil to hurt green technology and fracking investments. There's of course also the abundance of oil coming from the US, and the slowdown in China...
    - seren 11y ago
      There are also in the process of crashing their own economy, which even to reach strategic goal does not seem wise. Falling oil prices and a a costly campaign in Yemen seems to be a bad combination. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21674403-will-it-be-enough-start-something?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4d http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/2167440...
honestcoyote 11y ago
Russia's initial reaction was to place the blame on insurgents and not Turkey. Even after Turkey claimed responsibility, Russia essentially said: "Are you sure? We really think it was the rebels. Hint. Hint." [1] So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates#block-56543954e4b0877f6541edef http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-je... "President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."
- ckozlowski 11y ago
  I thought that was rather interesting as well. It was only till Putin got on the air that they acknowledged it was a Turkish F-16. There's differing opinions here on what the best course is to take on IS, though the one thing Russia and the west seem to agree on is that the Syrian state needs to be reestablished. Bombs from the air won't defeat IS; only a functional state will. Russia is betting that Assad is Syria's best chance, and so they're bombing rebels. The west is betting the rebels are better in place to rule Syria, and so they're bombing IS to keep them off the rebels, but more importantly, giving the rebels a bit of air cover (no-fly zone or not, the Syrian Air Force is not about to test the presence of western aircraft over Syrian territory. The west simply needs to "be there".) Russia is not keen on seeing their man in Syria (and by extension, their only base west of the Bosperous) vanish, though they seem to be conceding a bit in that they've acknowledged he could go in a managed transition. I dunno what impact this event will have on any of this.
- norea-armozel 11y ago
  I wonder why Putin is trying to give Turkey an exit out of responsibility. Is he still trying to pull them out of the NATO fold? Or is Germany still stringing Turkey along for the possibility of an EU/EC membership?
cryoshon 11y ago
This is a bad incident, but I do not believe that a major war is about to break out; this isn't the cold war anymore, and the major powers are actively avoiding war with each other because neither can bear the consequences of such a war. If you read the article, you will see that even Putin is treating this as a one-off event that occurred as a result of poor coordination between the parties ostensibly united in attacking ISIS. The Russian anger is focused largely at Turkey, who is the ally nobody wants to have in the fight against ISIS... it's no secret that the Turkish MIT (intelligence agency) has been caught transferring weapons directly to radical Sunni groups near the border while killing Kurds whenever possible. I think the overarching idea of this incident is that everyone knew that an accident would happen eventually, and so a mature response is to take steps to increase coordination rather than saber rattle about a downed aircraft. A complication is that the Russian pilot who survived the crash was captured by rebels; I assume Russia will deal with this swiftly.
ch8230 11y ago
According to the article NATO is holding an emergency meeting in brussels so I wouldn't say this is a story hyped up by social media. It's a sign that things are getting very messy and have major potential for escalation.
knowaveragejoe 11y ago
Russia probably isn't going to do anything other than tighten their adherence to the borders. They can't afford to start up with Turkey and NATO at large, but Putin is sure going to make it sound like he would.

by jcrei 11y ago

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago

Social media can do a horrible job of being alarmist when it comes to news of this sort.

cinquemb 11y ago
Yes, I'd prefer cat photos and self referential reports on such by CNN, WAPO, NYT et al……
petercooper 11y ago
But I thought we all got realistic when we all died of ebola after dying in the oil-filled Gulf of Mexico after that avian swine flu that was doing the rounds after the entire economic system fell of the rails a decade after comedy died on 9/11.

redwood 11y ago

You're probably right. But folks remember Franz Ferdinand. Caution is merited

nkrisc 11y ago
What does the hit Scottish rock band have to do with this? ;)
omginternets 11y ago
I get your point, but it's frankly a bit silly. We're nowhere near the political tension and arms-race that enabled WWI. This is decontextualization ad absurdum.
- redwood 11y ago
  A lot of people disagree and believe the middle east is very much like pre WWI Balkans with great powers sleepwalking with a sense of long peace. Don't very me wrong... this is a different time. But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted
  - omginternets 11y ago
    >But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted Yes, but that's very different from implying that there's been an arms race that could set off a war between major superpowers. You're confusing the destabilization of a large region with a world war. To be clear: the former is very worrying, it's just very different from the latter.
    - redwood 11y ago
      The Serbian national aspirations were not initially global in scope

skylan_q 11y ago

I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. You're likely right. My guess is that they'll find ways to put more pressure on Turkey aside from threatening direct confrontation.

acqq 11y ago

The next time a Russian plane observes a Turkish fighter plane approaching, it will be more motivated to react, it can be faster on the trigger, and then it's one NATO plane down, and then the NATO can escalate etc. On another side, the area where "IS free to operate" is still huge: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_86737733_iraq_syria_air_strikes_624_v49.png http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_... On the third side: Turkey doesn't like that Russia bombs also the Turkmens in Syria in the areas controlled by the rebels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-between-aiding-turkmen-and-economic-dependence-on-russia http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-b... "Ömer Abdullah, commander of the Turkmen Sultan Abdülhamit Brigade called on Turkey’s government to intervene to halt the month-long offensive, the Cihan news agency reported. “We are trying to survive under unbearable brutality and we need Turkey’s help,” Abdullah said. “Every day our Turkmen brothers are dying. We expect the government to support us … Why are we left alone?” Abdullah said his forces were under attack from the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iranian forces. “I don’t understand why our Muslim brothers remain silent. We need all kinds of support. It’s impossible to survive under such heavy bombardment,” he said. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) was accused of involvement in clandestine arms shipments to Turkmen forces earlier this year. Cumhuriyet newspaper published a report on arms smuggling on 29 May that included images of weapons allegedly carried by trucks operated by MIT. Mehmet Şandır, a former Nationalist Movement party MP, told Today’s Zaman newspaper that Turkmens were facing ethnic cleansing in northern Syria."

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
"motivated to react"-like turning away from the Turkish border at full afterburner? Alarmism and freaking out doesn't do anyone any good.
- acqq 11y ago
  See the map of the bombings (the post above). There is a huge bombing activity near the Turkish border. "Turning away from the border" would mean stop such operations. It's obvious that Turkey intentionally overreacts. See also honestcoyote's comment here.

tomp 11y ago

Russia has other, non-military means of "attacking" Turkey. For example, but cutting off the gas pipelines in the winter ("technical difficulties").

cryoshon 11y ago
Sort of like how the Saudis created a glut of oil to drive the price down and crash the Russian economy, no?
- tomp 11y ago
  That's one possible explanation... Although it seems unlikely that they could actually do that, their share of oil exports is high, but not that high. Even if they could, they have better reasons than hurting Russia - such as simply driving down the price of oil to hurt green technology and fracking investments. There's of course also the abundance of oil coming from the US, and the slowdown in China...
  - seren 11y ago
    There are also in the process of crashing their own economy, which even to reach strategic goal does not seem wise. Falling oil prices and a a costly campaign in Yemen seems to be a bad combination. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21674403-will-it-be-enough-start-something?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4d http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/2167440...

honestcoyote 11y ago

Russia's initial reaction was to place the blame on insurgents and not Turkey. Even after Turkey claimed responsibility, Russia essentially said: "Are you sure? We really think it was the rebels. Hint. Hint." [1] So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates#block-56543954e4b0877f6541edef http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-je... "President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."

ckozlowski 11y ago
I thought that was rather interesting as well. It was only till Putin got on the air that they acknowledged it was a Turkish F-16. There's differing opinions here on what the best course is to take on IS, though the one thing Russia and the west seem to agree on is that the Syrian state needs to be reestablished. Bombs from the air won't defeat IS; only a functional state will. Russia is betting that Assad is Syria's best chance, and so they're bombing rebels. The west is betting the rebels are better in place to rule Syria, and so they're bombing IS to keep them off the rebels, but more importantly, giving the rebels a bit of air cover (no-fly zone or not, the Syrian Air Force is not about to test the presence of western aircraft over Syrian territory. The west simply needs to "be there".) Russia is not keen on seeing their man in Syria (and by extension, their only base west of the Bosperous) vanish, though they seem to be conceding a bit in that they've acknowledged he could go in a managed transition. I dunno what impact this event will have on any of this.
norea-armozel 11y ago
I wonder why Putin is trying to give Turkey an exit out of responsibility. Is he still trying to pull them out of the NATO fold? Or is Germany still stringing Turkey along for the possibility of an EU/EC membership?

cryoshon 11y ago

This is a bad incident, but I do not believe that a major war is about to break out; this isn't the cold war anymore, and the major powers are actively avoiding war with each other because neither can bear the consequences of such a war. If you read the article, you will see that even Putin is treating this as a one-off event that occurred as a result of poor coordination between the parties ostensibly united in attacking ISIS. The Russian anger is focused largely at Turkey, who is the ally nobody wants to have in the fight against ISIS... it's no secret that the Turkish MIT (intelligence agency) has been caught transferring weapons directly to radical Sunni groups near the border while killing Kurds whenever possible. I think the overarching idea of this incident is that everyone knew that an accident would happen eventually, and so a mature response is to take steps to increase coordination rather than saber rattle about a downed aircraft. A complication is that the Russian pilot who survived the crash was captured by rebels; I assume Russia will deal with this swiftly.

ch8230 11y ago

According to the article NATO is holding an emergency meeting in brussels so I wouldn't say this is a story hyped up by social media. It's a sign that things are getting very messy and have major potential for escalation.

knowaveragejoe 11y ago

Russia probably isn't going to do anything other than tighten their adherence to the borders. They can't afford to start up with Turkey and NATO at large, but Putin is sure going to make it sound like he would.