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Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane Near Syrian Border

112 points by enesunal 11y ago

puppetmaster3 11y ago
When you think of recent Turkey, you must think of this weeks: http://youtube.com/watch?v=cBRSfdAvsDQ http://youtube.com/watch?v=cBRSfdAvsDQ to help put the context.
jcrei 11y ago
There is already a big sense of alarm on social media (particularly along new EU/NATO countries) that this can lead up to new confrontation between Russia and NATO. I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. Thoughts?
- ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
  Social media can do a horrible job of being alarmist when it comes to news of this sort.
  - cinquemb 11y ago
    Yes, I'd prefer cat photos and self referential reports on such by CNN, WAPO, NYT et al……
  - petercooper 11y ago
    But I thought we all got realistic when we all died of ebola after dying in the oil-filled Gulf of Mexico after that avian swine flu that was doing the rounds after the entire economic system fell of the rails a decade after comedy died on 9/11.
- redwood 11y ago
  You're probably right. But folks remember Franz Ferdinand. Caution is merited
  - nkrisc 11y ago
    What does the hit Scottish rock band have to do with this? ;)
  - omginternets 11y ago
    I get your point, but it's frankly a bit silly. We're nowhere near the political tension and arms-race that enabled WWI. This is decontextualization ad absurdum.
    - redwood 11y ago
      A lot of people disagree and believe the middle east is very much like pre WWI Balkans with great powers sleepwalking with a sense of long peace. Don't very me wrong... this is a different time. But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted
      - omginternets 11y ago
        >But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted Yes, but that's very different from implying that there's been an arms race that could set off a war between major superpowers. You're confusing the destabilization of a large region with a world war. To be clear: the former is very worrying, it's just very different from the latter.
        redwood 11y ago
        The Serbian national aspirations were not initially global in scope
- skylan_q 11y ago
  I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. You're likely right. My guess is that they'll find ways to put more pressure on Turkey aside from threatening direct confrontation.
- acqq 11y ago
  The next time a Russian plane observes a Turkish fighter plane approaching, it will be more motivated to react, it can be faster on the trigger, and then it's one NATO plane down, and then the NATO can escalate etc. On another side, the area where "IS free to operate" is still huge: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_86737733_iraq_syria_air_strikes_624_v49.png http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_... On the third side: Turkey doesn't like that Russia bombs also the Turkmens in Syria in the areas controlled by the rebels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-between-aiding-turkmen-and-economic-dependence-on-russia http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-b... "Ömer Abdullah, commander of the Turkmen Sultan Abdülhamit Brigade called on Turkey’s government to intervene to halt the month-long offensive, the Cihan news agency reported. “We are trying to survive under unbearable brutality and we need Turkey’s help,” Abdullah said. “Every day our Turkmen brothers are dying. We expect the government to support us … Why are we left alone?” Abdullah said his forces were under attack from the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iranian forces. “I don’t understand why our Muslim brothers remain silent. We need all kinds of support. It’s impossible to survive under such heavy bombardment,” he said. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) was accused of involvement in clandestine arms shipments to Turkmen forces earlier this year. Cumhuriyet newspaper published a report on arms smuggling on 29 May that included images of weapons allegedly carried by trucks operated by MIT. Mehmet Şandır, a former Nationalist Movement party MP, told Today’s Zaman newspaper that Turkmens were facing ethnic cleansing in northern Syria."
  - ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
    "motivated to react"-like turning away from the Turkish border at full afterburner? Alarmism and freaking out doesn't do anyone any good.
    - acqq 11y ago
      See the map of the bombings (the post above). There is a huge bombing activity near the Turkish border. "Turning away from the border" would mean stop such operations. It's obvious that Turkey intentionally overreacts. See also honestcoyote's comment here.
- tomp 11y ago
  Russia has other, non-military means of "attacking" Turkey. For example, but cutting off the gas pipelines in the winter ("technical difficulties").
  - cryoshon 11y ago
    Sort of like how the Saudis created a glut of oil to drive the price down and crash the Russian economy, no?
    - tomp 11y ago
      That's one possible explanation... Although it seems unlikely that they could actually do that, their share of oil exports is high, but not that high. Even if they could, they have better reasons than hurting Russia - such as simply driving down the price of oil to hurt green technology and fracking investments. There's of course also the abundance of oil coming from the US, and the slowdown in China...
      - seren 11y ago
        There are also in the process of crashing their own economy, which even to reach strategic goal does not seem wise. Falling oil prices and a a costly campaign in Yemen seems to be a bad combination. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21674403-will-it-be-enough-start-something?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4d http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/2167440...
- honestcoyote 11y ago
  Russia's initial reaction was to place the blame on insurgents and not Turkey. Even after Turkey claimed responsibility, Russia essentially said: "Are you sure? We really think it was the rebels. Hint. Hint." [1] So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates#block-56543954e4b0877f6541edef http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-je... "President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."
  - ckozlowski 11y ago
    I thought that was rather interesting as well. It was only till Putin got on the air that they acknowledged it was a Turkish F-16. There's differing opinions here on what the best course is to take on IS, though the one thing Russia and the west seem to agree on is that the Syrian state needs to be reestablished. Bombs from the air won't defeat IS; only a functional state will. Russia is betting that Assad is Syria's best chance, and so they're bombing rebels. The west is betting the rebels are better in place to rule Syria, and so they're bombing IS to keep them off the rebels, but more importantly, giving the rebels a bit of air cover (no-fly zone or not, the Syrian Air Force is not about to test the presence of western aircraft over Syrian territory. The west simply needs to "be there".) Russia is not keen on seeing their man in Syria (and by extension, their only base west of the Bosperous) vanish, though they seem to be conceding a bit in that they've acknowledged he could go in a managed transition. I dunno what impact this event will have on any of this.
  - norea-armozel 11y ago
    I wonder why Putin is trying to give Turkey an exit out of responsibility. Is he still trying to pull them out of the NATO fold? Or is Germany still stringing Turkey along for the possibility of an EU/EC membership?
- cryoshon 11y ago
  This is a bad incident, but I do not believe that a major war is about to break out; this isn't the cold war anymore, and the major powers are actively avoiding war with each other because neither can bear the consequences of such a war. If you read the article, you will see that even Putin is treating this as a one-off event that occurred as a result of poor coordination between the parties ostensibly united in attacking ISIS. The Russian anger is focused largely at Turkey, who is the ally nobody wants to have in the fight against ISIS... it's no secret that the Turkish MIT (intelligence agency) has been caught transferring weapons directly to radical Sunni groups near the border while killing Kurds whenever possible. I think the overarching idea of this incident is that everyone knew that an accident would happen eventually, and so a mature response is to take steps to increase coordination rather than saber rattle about a downed aircraft. A complication is that the Russian pilot who survived the crash was captured by rebels; I assume Russia will deal with this swiftly.
- ch8230 11y ago
  According to the article NATO is holding an emergency meeting in brussels so I wouldn't say this is a story hyped up by social media. It's a sign that things are getting very messy and have major potential for escalation.
- knowaveragejoe 11y ago
  Russia probably isn't going to do anything other than tighten their adherence to the borders. They can't afford to start up with Turkey and NATO at large, but Putin is sure going to make it sound like he would.
sfjailbird 11y ago
I'm the skeptical type, but my take is that the West has never been serious about hurting IS, beyond making a show of it, because of its strategic usefulness. There have been indications of this since the bombing campaigns began over a year ago in Iraq, the British flew for weeks without attacking anything, the Kurds reported no help from the air, etc. Add to this all the direct and indirect support IS has been getting in terms of weapon supplies to 'moderates' that end up with them, and particularly the strange ease with which they are able to sell oil and send fighters back and forth across the Turkish border. So I'm inclined to believe that this incident was staged to further put a spanner in the wheel of real concerted attacks on IS - instead we get Russia and the West staring each other down. Note that the Russian jet did not exactly invade Turkish territory - it crossed a tiny finger of land less than a mile wide extending into Syria - a tiny excuse for such a forceful response.
- ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
  Please explain exactly how you think ISIS is strategically useful to the West.
  - sfjailbird 11y ago
    I'm sorry, I assumed this to be apparent. Well the West is fighting Assad, that is what this whole mess has been about from the beginning. IS is one of the pieces in that fight (in fact probably the most effective one, despite their unsavory character but that has never been a problem for the West in choosing allies). I think the only real drawback to IS, in strategic terms, is if their violence spills over too much, like it happened recently, but that hasn't been, and probably still isn't, much of a real concern.
    - jinst8gmi 11y ago
      This sounds like a 'dog ate my homework' level of logic explanation.
      - acqq 11y ago
eveningcoffee 11y ago
Lets be more precise. It was shot down over Turkey territory (according to information provided by Turkey military). Of course one could argue that the plane was just taking a shortcut over the small part of Turkey territory. The problem with this is that Turkey has warned Russians on many occasions to not do that. But in my opinion it does not look like there was any threat to Turkey. In principle the Russians have become very cocky near all NATO borders, and Turks are the least PC NATO member, so one can say that Russians had it coming and it looks like they finally found their equally crazy nemesis. Anyway, the situation is alarming and it is not yet clear how the following actions would unroll. The first reaction from Putin does not make it look like Russia would admit their fault, but I think that he is rather reserved. My condolences go to the parents and relatives of the killed pilot. Edit: Changed two paragraphs, added one more paragraph. Edit2: It looks like Russians flew over Turkey territory towards their target zone (see the map provided in this thread) and then began to fly in circles over Turkey territory. They were shot at the second entry. I do not know why Russians choose this route as it does not seem to be the most optimal one. The length over Turkey territory is about 1500-1600 meters, SU-24 flies up to 360 m/s so it was about minimum 5 seconds flight, but as it was a second entry, I guess it does not matter that much. Anyway, I think that both sides acted in a very unwise manner.
- Luc 11y ago
  > Lets be correct. It was shot down over Turkey territory. How could you possible know enough to admonish people over this? We barely know the facts. Perhaps the plane never entered Turkish territory. Perhaps only for a few seconds. Maybe it was fired upon when it was already over Syria. Or maybe the rocket hit over Syria.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - eveningcoffee 11y ago
    I agree with you and I changed my comment to address these concerns.
jacquesm 11y ago
The plane came down in Syria, no info about where it was before then or where the plane was shot as far as I know. Not looking very good for Turkey with info available at this moment, if the plane had come down inside the Turkish borders they'd have a much stronger story. The conflict is becoming extremely complex, all parties hate IS, but some more than others and some offer clandestine support and quite a few parties hate each other as well. Turkmenes, Assad, Russia, Turkey, the Kurds, IS are fighting there each with their own relationship with all the other parties and that's just one small fragment of the zone, and Turkey is part of NATO to make things even more complex.
- seren 11y ago
  I am not afraid of escalation between Nato and Russia, but the future of Syria will need a full cooperation of all parties involved, and today we took a step in the wrong direction. EU needs the help of Turkey to host refugee camp on its territory, and at the same time, could be helped by Russian air force. However,Turkey and Russia have totally opposite goals regarding Assad. So this is likely going to get worse, before getting better.
  - jacquesm 11y ago
    The news now is that the Turkmenes shot the pilots coming down on their parachutes.
ckozlowski 11y ago
A bit of context here. The aircraft, according to the radar tracks the Turks are providing, was only over Turkish airspace for a few minutes at best. So we're not talking about an egregious violation here (egregious being up for interpretation.) The Turks say they warned the craft numerous times including points prior to crossing the border, so they were prepared to shoot it down after seeing it would cross if no course change was taken. Some might ask what the harm is to Turkey in this case, and my guesses are this: 1. If Turkey didn't take action, then they could set a dangerous precedent by which aircraft were tolerated to violate their airspace, but Turkey would then find it difficult to then crack down after the fact. How deep is a real incursion? At what point do they say "ok, we're really gonna shoot you down now!" 2. The BBC brought up the fact that there are ethnic Turks (Turkmen) living inside Syria, and some of them have been targets of Russian/Syrian bombs. The Turks have been notably irritated at this, and so one could imagine that this gave Turkey an excuse to hit back. I saw the initial Russian comments as insisting that their plane was downed by a SAM as a real desire to downplay the incident. But now that they're acknowledging it was downed by a Turkish aircraft, it seems they're at least wanting to object harshly. (Edit: That, and Turkish insistence that they did it. Maybe they didn't see the wink?) I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.
- splouk 11y ago
  > I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent. Putin is not known for his soft heart and willingness to let bygones be bygones.
  - ckozlowski 11y ago
    While I wouldn't characterize him as having a "soft heart" either, I never got the impression that he's so simplistic as to want to retaliate in any situation. The Russians are not stupid. I don't think for a moment that any side didn't envision this as a possibility. When you're flying sorties, there's going to be accidents. With this many borders involved and a NATO power next door, the risk only became larger. While it's serious, it's not like Russia didn't know these risks beforehand. They saw this possibility before they got involved. Doesn't mean they won't be happy about it, but I guarantee a Turkish response was at least thought about.
thedaemon 11y ago
The turkey finally gets his revenge just before Thanksgiving.
mason240 11y ago
There was map on https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/3tyj1r/the_unusual_route_taken_by_two_russian_tu160/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/3tyj1r/the_unusual... of "The unusual route taken by two Russian Tu-160 bombers on their way to Syria," where Russian jets circle all the way around Europe to get to Syria. I wonder if this was one of those flights. https://i.imgur.com/iARdJtM.jpg https://i.imgur.com/iARdJtM.jpg
SyneRyder 11y ago
CNN Türk English has a flight analysis diagram they claim was provided to them by military sources, claiming the Russian jet encroached on Turkish airspace: https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448 https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448 [The same diagram on Twitter Verified @CNN_Türk: https://twitter.com/cnnturk/status/669105783729180672 https://twitter.com/cnnturk/status/669105783729180672 ] The distance between borders at that point is 2 - 3km across (measured via Google Maps), which would be a few seconds of travel time. Russia claims the jet never even entered Turkish airspace. Following the red line, it seems to have crashed in Syrian airspace, not Turkish territory. I was about to link to this next tweet as an example of the 3km border-to-border measurement, until I noticed... this is the only tweet this account has posted. Which rather undermines its own credibility & makes me wonder how much of a social media propaganda fight is also occurring right now: https://twitter.com/Pere08331980/status/669106359355461633 https://twitter.com/Pere08331980/status/669106359355461633
csomar 11y ago
Might seem like a stupid question, but I don't know how serious this is: I have a flight on Thursday via Turkishairlines and landing in Istanbul for a few hours. Is this an act that can trigger war between the two countries? What could possibly go wrong (more than an airjet down) here?
- algorithmsRcool 11y ago
  Open war between Russia and Turkey would be defacto war with the United States and the rest of NATO due to Article 5 of the NATO charter. That doesn't really answer your question but hopefully gives some context.
  - ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
    It really depends if the rest of NATO will go to war over Turkey. I fibd that...perhaps not so likely
    - algorithmsRcool 11y ago
      I would be inclined to agree.....but the treaty is pretty ironclad as long as Turkey is a full member. Which they have been since 1952.
      - ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
        Treaties are hardly sacrosanct, and its not as if the current Turkish government is universally liked within NATO.
        dragonwriter 11y ago
        > its not as if the current Turkish government is universally liked within NATO. Credibility as a bulwark against Russia with Eastern European NATO members and partners, OTOH, is probably universally liked within NATO, and sacrificing one without sacrificing the other would be quite tricky.
mring33621 11y ago
2 people were killed for trespassing. Sickening, IMHO.
- algorithmsRcool 11y ago
  Stepping over an invisible line has much bigger consequences if you are piloting a powerful military aircraft and acting as agents of the foreign and non-friendly state.
- merpnderp 11y ago
  They were piloting an SU-24 ground attack aircraft. It is not unlikely that it had just finished and was about to continue attacks on areas with ethnic Turks. And certainly the aircraft had participated in attacks on moderate Syrians (whatever that means) which are allied with Turkey.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- LyndsySimon 11y ago
  On the other hand, I'm sure Turkey would argue that they used the minimum force necessary to remove a repetitive trespasser from their sovereign territory.
happyscrappy 11y ago
Let's not have the assinine Sunni vs Shiite battle fought between the Russians and the Turks.
antman 11y ago
Turkey has shown lots of military and secret service activity trying to establish its regional power status. For a minor airspace violation during border clashes from a supersonic aircraft the ."In the first month of 2014 alone, Turkish aircraft allegedly violated Greek airspace 1,017 times." http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20151009/1028274796/greece-turkey-warplanes.html http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20151009/1028274796/greece-t... Abdulah Gul Turkish Prime Minister in 2012:It is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over [national] borders... when you consider their speed over the sea," he added. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18562210 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18562210 Also Turkey has armed islamist groups in that border area and then denied it http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0O61L220150521 http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0O61L220150521 And threatened anybody assisting the Syrian Kurds, the only ground force that is fighting ISIS except Assad. Turkish military policy goes way beyond its borders. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-turkey-may-hit-us-backed-pyd-to-block-advance.aspx?pageID=238&nID=90476&NewsCatID=352 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-turkey-may-hit...
georgecmu 11y ago
And only three years ago: Turkey’s president said Saturday that his country would do “whatever is necessary” in response to the downing of a Turkish military jet by Syria, adding a new complication to the tense relationship between the former allies split by Turkey’s support for Syrian rebels trying to overthrow the government. “It is not possible to cover over a thing like this,” said President Abdullah Gul of Turkey, according to the Anatolia news agency. “Whatever is necessary will no doubt be done.” Syria said Friday that its military forces had shot down a Turkish jet that had entered its airspace just off the Syrian coast. But Mr. Gul said Saturday that while the exact route of the plane had not yet been confirmed, _it was routine for military jets flying at high speeds to briefly cross into another country’s airspace_, and that the jet’s presence over Syrian territory was not intended as a hostile act. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/world/middleeast/turkey-promises-retaliation-in-response-to-downing-of-military-jet-by-syria.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/world/middleeast/turkey-pr...

112 points by enesunal 11y ago

When you think of recent Turkey, you must think of this weeks: http://youtube.com/watch?v=cBRSfdAvsDQ http://youtube.com/watch?v=cBRSfdAvsDQ to help put the context.

jcrei 11y ago

There is already a big sense of alarm on social media (particularly along new EU/NATO countries) that this can lead up to new confrontation between Russia and NATO. I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. Thoughts?

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
Social media can do a horrible job of being alarmist when it comes to news of this sort.
- cinquemb 11y ago
  Yes, I'd prefer cat photos and self referential reports on such by CNN, WAPO, NYT et al……
- petercooper 11y ago
  But I thought we all got realistic when we all died of ebola after dying in the oil-filled Gulf of Mexico after that avian swine flu that was doing the rounds after the entire economic system fell of the rails a decade after comedy died on 9/11.
redwood 11y ago
You're probably right. But folks remember Franz Ferdinand. Caution is merited
- nkrisc 11y ago
  What does the hit Scottish rock band have to do with this? ;)
- omginternets 11y ago
  I get your point, but it's frankly a bit silly. We're nowhere near the political tension and arms-race that enabled WWI. This is decontextualization ad absurdum.
  - redwood 11y ago
    A lot of people disagree and believe the middle east is very much like pre WWI Balkans with great powers sleepwalking with a sense of long peace. Don't very me wrong... this is a different time. But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted
    - omginternets 11y ago
      >But caution is merited because everything can burn up in the snap of a finger. Thats rhe lesson learned exactly 100 yrs ago. Cant take peace for granted Yes, but that's very different from implying that there's been an arms race that could set off a war between major superpowers. You're confusing the destabilization of a large region with a world war. To be clear: the former is very worrying, it's just very different from the latter.
      - redwood 11y ago
        The Serbian national aspirations were not initially global in scope
skylan_q 11y ago
I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. You're likely right. My guess is that they'll find ways to put more pressure on Turkey aside from threatening direct confrontation.
acqq 11y ago
The next time a Russian plane observes a Turkish fighter plane approaching, it will be more motivated to react, it can be faster on the trigger, and then it's one NATO plane down, and then the NATO can escalate etc. On another side, the area where "IS free to operate" is still huge: http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_86737733_iraq_syria_air_strikes_624_v49.png http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/83ED/production/_... On the third side: Turkey doesn't like that Russia bombs also the Turkmens in Syria in the areas controlled by the rebels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-between-aiding-turkmen-and-economic-dependence-on-russia http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-caught-b... "Ömer Abdullah, commander of the Turkmen Sultan Abdülhamit Brigade called on Turkey’s government to intervene to halt the month-long offensive, the Cihan news agency reported. “We are trying to survive under unbearable brutality and we need Turkey’s help,” Abdullah said. “Every day our Turkmen brothers are dying. We expect the government to support us … Why are we left alone?” Abdullah said his forces were under attack from the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iranian forces. “I don’t understand why our Muslim brothers remain silent. We need all kinds of support. It’s impossible to survive under such heavy bombardment,” he said. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) was accused of involvement in clandestine arms shipments to Turkmen forces earlier this year. Cumhuriyet newspaper published a report on arms smuggling on 29 May that included images of weapons allegedly carried by trucks operated by MIT. Mehmet Şandır, a former Nationalist Movement party MP, told Today’s Zaman newspaper that Turkmens were facing ethnic cleansing in northern Syria."
- ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
  "motivated to react"-like turning away from the Turkish border at full afterburner? Alarmism and freaking out doesn't do anyone any good.
  - acqq 11y ago
    See the map of the bombings (the post above). There is a huge bombing activity near the Turkish border. "Turning away from the border" would mean stop such operations. It's obvious that Turkey intentionally overreacts. See also honestcoyote's comment here.
tomp 11y ago
Russia has other, non-military means of "attacking" Turkey. For example, but cutting off the gas pipelines in the winter ("technical difficulties").
- cryoshon 11y ago
  Sort of like how the Saudis created a glut of oil to drive the price down and crash the Russian economy, no?
  - tomp 11y ago
    That's one possible explanation... Although it seems unlikely that they could actually do that, their share of oil exports is high, but not that high. Even if they could, they have better reasons than hurting Russia - such as simply driving down the price of oil to hurt green technology and fracking investments. There's of course also the abundance of oil coming from the US, and the slowdown in China...
    - seren 11y ago
      There are also in the process of crashing their own economy, which even to reach strategic goal does not seem wise. Falling oil prices and a a costly campaign in Yemen seems to be a bad combination. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21674403-will-it-be-enough-start-something?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4d http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/2167440...
honestcoyote 11y ago
Russia's initial reaction was to place the blame on insurgents and not Turkey. Even after Turkey claimed responsibility, Russia essentially said: "Are you sure? We really think it was the rebels. Hint. Hint." [1] So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates#block-56543954e4b0877f6541edef http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-je... "President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."
- ckozlowski 11y ago
  I thought that was rather interesting as well. It was only till Putin got on the air that they acknowledged it was a Turkish F-16. There's differing opinions here on what the best course is to take on IS, though the one thing Russia and the west seem to agree on is that the Syrian state needs to be reestablished. Bombs from the air won't defeat IS; only a functional state will. Russia is betting that Assad is Syria's best chance, and so they're bombing rebels. The west is betting the rebels are better in place to rule Syria, and so they're bombing IS to keep them off the rebels, but more importantly, giving the rebels a bit of air cover (no-fly zone or not, the Syrian Air Force is not about to test the presence of western aircraft over Syrian territory. The west simply needs to "be there".) Russia is not keen on seeing their man in Syria (and by extension, their only base west of the Bosperous) vanish, though they seem to be conceding a bit in that they've acknowledged he could go in a managed transition. I dunno what impact this event will have on any of this.
- norea-armozel 11y ago
  I wonder why Putin is trying to give Turkey an exit out of responsibility. Is he still trying to pull them out of the NATO fold? Or is Germany still stringing Turkey along for the possibility of an EU/EC membership?
cryoshon 11y ago
This is a bad incident, but I do not believe that a major war is about to break out; this isn't the cold war anymore, and the major powers are actively avoiding war with each other because neither can bear the consequences of such a war. If you read the article, you will see that even Putin is treating this as a one-off event that occurred as a result of poor coordination between the parties ostensibly united in attacking ISIS. The Russian anger is focused largely at Turkey, who is the ally nobody wants to have in the fight against ISIS... it's no secret that the Turkish MIT (intelligence agency) has been caught transferring weapons directly to radical Sunni groups near the border while killing Kurds whenever possible. I think the overarching idea of this incident is that everyone knew that an accident would happen eventually, and so a mature response is to take steps to increase coordination rather than saber rattle about a downed aircraft. A complication is that the Russian pilot who survived the crash was captured by rebels; I assume Russia will deal with this swiftly.
ch8230 11y ago
According to the article NATO is holding an emergency meeting in brussels so I wouldn't say this is a story hyped up by social media. It's a sign that things are getting very messy and have major potential for escalation.
knowaveragejoe 11y ago
Russia probably isn't going to do anything other than tighten their adherence to the borders. They can't afford to start up with Turkey and NATO at large, but Putin is sure going to make it sound like he would.

sfjailbird 11y ago

I'm the skeptical type, but my take is that the West has never been serious about hurting IS, beyond making a show of it, because of its strategic usefulness. There have been indications of this since the bombing campaigns began over a year ago in Iraq, the British flew for weeks without attacking anything, the Kurds reported no help from the air, etc. Add to this all the direct and indirect support IS has been getting in terms of weapon supplies to 'moderates' that end up with them, and particularly the strange ease with which they are able to sell oil and send fighters back and forth across the Turkish border. So I'm inclined to believe that this incident was staged to further put a spanner in the wheel of real concerted attacks on IS - instead we get Russia and the West staring each other down. Note that the Russian jet did not exactly invade Turkish territory - it crossed a tiny finger of land less than a mile wide extending into Syria - a tiny excuse for such a forceful response.

ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
Please explain exactly how you think ISIS is strategically useful to the West.
- sfjailbird 11y ago
  I'm sorry, I assumed this to be apparent. Well the West is fighting Assad, that is what this whole mess has been about from the beginning. IS is one of the pieces in that fight (in fact probably the most effective one, despite their unsavory character but that has never been a problem for the West in choosing allies). I think the only real drawback to IS, in strategic terms, is if their violence spills over too much, like it happened recently, but that hasn't been, and probably still isn't, much of a real concern.
  - jinst8gmi 11y ago
    This sounds like a 'dog ate my homework' level of logic explanation.
    - acqq 11y ago

eveningcoffee 11y ago

Lets be more precise. It was shot down over Turkey territory (according to information provided by Turkey military). Of course one could argue that the plane was just taking a shortcut over the small part of Turkey territory. The problem with this is that Turkey has warned Russians on many occasions to not do that. But in my opinion it does not look like there was any threat to Turkey. In principle the Russians have become very cocky near all NATO borders, and Turks are the least PC NATO member, so one can say that Russians had it coming and it looks like they finally found their equally crazy nemesis. Anyway, the situation is alarming and it is not yet clear how the following actions would unroll. The first reaction from Putin does not make it look like Russia would admit their fault, but I think that he is rather reserved. My condolences go to the parents and relatives of the killed pilot. Edit: Changed two paragraphs, added one more paragraph. Edit2: It looks like Russians flew over Turkey territory towards their target zone (see the map provided in this thread) and then began to fly in circles over Turkey territory. They were shot at the second entry. I do not know why Russians choose this route as it does not seem to be the most optimal one. The length over Turkey territory is about 1500-1600 meters, SU-24 flies up to 360 m/s so it was about minimum 5 seconds flight, but as it was a second entry, I guess it does not matter that much. Anyway, I think that both sides acted in a very unwise manner.

Luc 11y ago
> Lets be correct. It was shot down over Turkey territory. How could you possible know enough to admonish people over this? We barely know the facts. Perhaps the plane never entered Turkish territory. Perhaps only for a few seconds. Maybe it was fired upon when it was already over Syria. Or maybe the rocket hit over Syria.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- eveningcoffee 11y ago
  I agree with you and I changed my comment to address these concerns.

jacquesm 11y ago

The plane came down in Syria, no info about where it was before then or where the plane was shot as far as I know. Not looking very good for Turkey with info available at this moment, if the plane had come down inside the Turkish borders they'd have a much stronger story. The conflict is becoming extremely complex, all parties hate IS, but some more than others and some offer clandestine support and quite a few parties hate each other as well. Turkmenes, Assad, Russia, Turkey, the Kurds, IS are fighting there each with their own relationship with all the other parties and that's just one small fragment of the zone, and Turkey is part of NATO to make things even more complex.

seren 11y ago
I am not afraid of escalation between Nato and Russia, but the future of Syria will need a full cooperation of all parties involved, and today we took a step in the wrong direction. EU needs the help of Turkey to host refugee camp on its territory, and at the same time, could be helped by Russian air force. However,Turkey and Russia have totally opposite goals regarding Assad. So this is likely going to get worse, before getting better.
- jacquesm 11y ago
  The news now is that the Turkmenes shot the pilots coming down on their parachutes.

ckozlowski 11y ago

A bit of context here. The aircraft, according to the radar tracks the Turks are providing, was only over Turkish airspace for a few minutes at best. So we're not talking about an egregious violation here (egregious being up for interpretation.) The Turks say they warned the craft numerous times including points prior to crossing the border, so they were prepared to shoot it down after seeing it would cross if no course change was taken. Some might ask what the harm is to Turkey in this case, and my guesses are this: 1. If Turkey didn't take action, then they could set a dangerous precedent by which aircraft were tolerated to violate their airspace, but Turkey would then find it difficult to then crack down after the fact. How deep is a real incursion? At what point do they say "ok, we're really gonna shoot you down now!" 2. The BBC brought up the fact that there are ethnic Turks (Turkmen) living inside Syria, and some of them have been targets of Russian/Syrian bombs. The Turks have been notably irritated at this, and so one could imagine that this gave Turkey an excuse to hit back. I saw the initial Russian comments as insisting that their plane was downed by a SAM as a real desire to downplay the incident. But now that they're acknowledging it was downed by a Turkish aircraft, it seems they're at least wanting to object harshly. (Edit: That, and Turkish insistence that they did it. Maybe they didn't see the wink?) I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.

splouk 11y ago
> I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent. Putin is not known for his soft heart and willingness to let bygones be bygones.
- ckozlowski 11y ago
  While I wouldn't characterize him as having a "soft heart" either, I never got the impression that he's so simplistic as to want to retaliate in any situation. The Russians are not stupid. I don't think for a moment that any side didn't envision this as a possibility. When you're flying sorties, there's going to be accidents. With this many borders involved and a NATO power next door, the risk only became larger. While it's serious, it's not like Russia didn't know these risks beforehand. They saw this possibility before they got involved. Doesn't mean they won't be happy about it, but I guarantee a Turkish response was at least thought about.

thedaemon 11y ago

The turkey finally gets his revenge just before Thanksgiving.

mason240 11y ago

There was map on https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/3tyj1r/the_unusual_route_taken_by_two_russian_tu160/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/3tyj1r/the_unusual... of "The unusual route taken by two Russian Tu-160 bombers on their way to Syria," where Russian jets circle all the way around Europe to get to Syria. I wonder if this was one of those flights. https://i.imgur.com/iARdJtM.jpg https://i.imgur.com/iARdJtM.jpg

SyneRyder 11y ago

CNN Türk English has a flight analysis diagram they claim was provided to them by military sources, claiming the Russian jet encroached on Turkish airspace: https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448 https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448 [The same diagram on Twitter Verified @CNN_Türk: https://twitter.com/cnnturk/status/669105783729180672 https://twitter.com/cnnturk/status/669105783729180672 ] The distance between borders at that point is 2 - 3km across (measured via Google Maps), which would be a few seconds of travel time. Russia claims the jet never even entered Turkish airspace. Following the red line, it seems to have crashed in Syrian airspace, not Turkish territory. I was about to link to this next tweet as an example of the 3km border-to-border measurement, until I noticed... this is the only tweet this account has posted. Which rather undermines its own credibility & makes me wonder how much of a social media propaganda fight is also occurring right now: https://twitter.com/Pere08331980/status/669106359355461633 https://twitter.com/Pere08331980/status/669106359355461633

csomar 11y ago

Might seem like a stupid question, but I don't know how serious this is: I have a flight on Thursday via Turkishairlines and landing in Istanbul for a few hours. Is this an act that can trigger war between the two countries? What could possibly go wrong (more than an airjet down) here?

algorithmsRcool 11y ago
Open war between Russia and Turkey would be defacto war with the United States and the rest of NATO due to Article 5 of the NATO charter. That doesn't really answer your question but hopefully gives some context.
- ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
  It really depends if the rest of NATO will go to war over Turkey. I fibd that...perhaps not so likely
  - algorithmsRcool 11y ago
    I would be inclined to agree.....but the treaty is pretty ironclad as long as Turkey is a full member. Which they have been since 1952.
    - ZanyProgrammer 11y ago
      Treaties are hardly sacrosanct, and its not as if the current Turkish government is universally liked within NATO.
      - dragonwriter 11y ago
        > its not as if the current Turkish government is universally liked within NATO. Credibility as a bulwark against Russia with Eastern European NATO members and partners, OTOH, is probably universally liked within NATO, and sacrificing one without sacrificing the other would be quite tricky.

mring33621 11y ago

2 people were killed for trespassing. Sickening, IMHO.

algorithmsRcool 11y ago
Stepping over an invisible line has much bigger consequences if you are piloting a powerful military aircraft and acting as agents of the foreign and non-friendly state.
merpnderp 11y ago
They were piloting an SU-24 ground attack aircraft. It is not unlikely that it had just finished and was about to continue attacks on areas with ethnic Turks. And certainly the aircraft had participated in attacks on moderate Syrians (whatever that means) which are allied with Turkey.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
LyndsySimon 11y ago
On the other hand, I'm sure Turkey would argue that they used the minimum force necessary to remove a repetitive trespasser from their sovereign territory.

happyscrappy 11y ago

Let's not have the assinine Sunni vs Shiite battle fought between the Russians and the Turks.

antman 11y ago

Turkey has shown lots of military and secret service activity trying to establish its regional power status. For a minor airspace violation during border clashes from a supersonic aircraft the ."In the first month of 2014 alone, Turkish aircraft allegedly violated Greek airspace 1,017 times." http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20151009/1028274796/greece-turkey-warplanes.html http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20151009/1028274796/greece-t... Abdulah Gul Turkish Prime Minister in 2012:It is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over [national] borders... when you consider their speed over the sea," he added. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18562210 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18562210 Also Turkey has armed islamist groups in that border area and then denied it http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0O61L220150521 http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0O61L220150521 And threatened anybody assisting the Syrian Kurds, the only ground force that is fighting ISIS except Assad. Turkish military policy goes way beyond its borders. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-turkey-may-hit-us-backed-pyd-to-block-advance.aspx?pageID=238&nID=90476&NewsCatID=352 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-turkey-may-hit...

georgecmu 11y ago

And only three years ago: Turkey’s president said Saturday that his country would do “whatever is necessary” in response to the downing of a Turkish military jet by Syria, adding a new complication to the tense relationship between the former allies split by Turkey’s support for Syrian rebels trying to overthrow the government. “It is not possible to cover over a thing like this,” said President Abdullah Gul of Turkey, according to the Anatolia news agency. “Whatever is necessary will no doubt be done.” Syria said Friday that its military forces had shot down a Turkish jet that had entered its airspace just off the Syrian coast. But Mr. Gul said Saturday that while the exact route of the plane had not yet been confirmed, _it was routine for military jets flying at high speeds to briefly cross into another country’s airspace_, and that the jet’s presence over Syrian territory was not intended as a hostile act. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/world/middleeast/turkey-promises-retaliation-in-response-to-downing-of-military-jet-by-syria.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/world/middleeast/turkey-pr...