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Thanks for the comment. If you have actual traffic stats I'd love to see them. ;) Also, the estimate isn't for "a couple months", but for the past 12 months,

by pegobry 17y ago

Thanks for the comment. If you have actual traffic stats I'd love to see them. ;) Also, the estimate isn't for "a couple months", but for the past 12 months, and the trend points in one direction. Even less reliable but even more "damning" is Google Trends: http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0 http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&ctab=0&... That being said, your general point is right: nothing is preordained, and the trends could switch around tomorrow, and the picture look much different a while from now. But that's why I have a blog: this is the situation as I see it today. Maybe six months from now I'll eat my words, who knows?

pg 17y ago
The couple months I was referring to are the last few. The preceding months contradict your thesis. I think you're mistaking how much license a blog gives you to write about "the situation as I see it today." It's ok to write stuff based on small amounts of data, but the conclusions you're entitled to draw from it should be correspondingly small.
- pegobry 17y ago
  They don't contradict my thesis since Tumblr was always much bigger than Posterous and while they may have had faster growth it was never enough to catch up. Again -- I may be proven wrong in six months or a year, and if so I admit it publicly right here (in fact, do you want to make a bet?). But I think at this stage the data warrants the trend I extrapolate from it.