The basic premise is that a predator does low-risk deals with a large upside. And they can do that because they are well-informed. Turner knew he can use his

The basic premise is that a predator does low-risk deals with a large upside. And they can do that because they are well-informed. Turner knew he can use his billboard business to advertise a TV station. Paulson buying CDS's because his research showed the real estate bubble was about to burst. It's an interesting thesis, though it does suffer from survivorship bias. I thought the most interesting part was data from the book, "The Illusions of Entrepreneurship", by Scott Shane. New-business success is clearly correlated with the size of initial capitalization. The data show that organizing as a corporation is best. But failed entrepreneurs tend to organize as sole proprietorships. Writing a business plan is a must; failed entrepreneurs rarely take that step. Taking over an existing business is always the best bet; failed entrepreneurs prefer to start from scratch. Ninety per cent of the fastest-growing companies in the country sell to other businesses; failed entrepreneurs usually try to sell to consumers, and, rather than serving customers that other businesses have missed, they chase the same people as their competitors do. The list goes on: they underemphasize marketing; they don't understand the importance of financial controls; they try to compete on price.