As I recall the original engineering estimate was a 2% catastrophic failure rate - i.e. loss of orbiter - on the Shuttle [1]. Columbia was STS 107. The estimate

As I recall the original engineering estimate was a 2% catastrophic failure rate - i.e. loss of orbiter - on the Shuttle [1]. Columbia was STS 107. The estimate was spot on. You have to respect the level of engineering involved here. [1] http://www.amazon.com/Development-Shuttle-1972-1981-History-Volume/dp/1588340090 http://www.amazon.com/Development-Shuttle-1972-1981-History-...