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The market for computers is obvious now because there is a market for computers. The market for computers 40 years ago was far from obvious. Even 25 years ago,
by ianferrel 11y ago
The market for computers is obvious now because there is a market for computers.
The market for computers 40 years ago was far from obvious. Even 25 years ago, most people weren't really sure if this whole internet thing was going to amount to much. 15 years ago, people scoffed at the idea that the future of the internet was mobile phones.
Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.
- notahacker 11y agoI'd have thought the market for gene therapy was blindingly obvious compared with the market for computers 40 years ago: theoretical gene therapies being easier to conceive and more fundamental to human quality and length of life than theoretical everyday uses for calculation devices.
- maxerickson 11y agoPoint mutation diseases impact a relatively small portion of the population. They are trivially addressable if you have a gene therapy that is able to work on arbitrary adult tissue, but it's not that huge a market. I think the largest win is sickle cell anemia, after that cystic fibrosis. Some way of treating obesity with gene therapy would be a blockbuster financially, but biologically we don't really have that worked out so much. (research is ongoing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle-cell_disease#Gene_therapy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle-cell_disease#Gene_thera... )
- duaneb 11y agoI'm pretty happy with my ~50 year life span. I wouldn't spend a dime on gene therapy ever.