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That is not the consensus. The consensus is a massive decline in commodity prices (oil, metals, etc) and a decline in demand for exportable finished goods is c

• chollida1 11y ago
  > That is not the consensus. That's fair as far as I guess there is no consensus. You posted alot of links that don't really point to any definitive conclusion. Look at your data. It doesn't correlate with the Index in any way. The Index had a very pronounce peak in 2008. This link > https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU/ https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU/ was on a huge downward trend staring in 2007 I agree there is alot of room for interpretation, but I'm very happy to stand behind and put my money behind my assertion that the Baltic Index isn't a useful indicator anymore. But I do appreciate the opposing view point!
  • jacquesm 11y ago
    I agree that it isn't useful anymore, simply because once an index has been shown to 'lead' it will be made part of future models which well then either 'track' or 'lag' but no longer lead. But that does not mean a very low BDI isn't a problem.
  • rrggrr 11y ago
    The BDI's indication is supported by the decline in rail traffic, the decline in imports/exports in/out of China, and corresponding declines for the BRIC nations. Its supported by the recent (and growing) closures of mines and mills globally. From Janet Yellen, Michael Pettis, Zhou Xiaochaun... all acknowledge this decline. You're in a very, very small minority.
    • toomuchtodo 11y ago
      What's your take on the Fed raising rates next month? I've seen a lot of consensus that rates are going up next month, but I don't see how they can with various economic indicators showing that the global economy isn't on solid footing. Perhaps we'll be stuck with ZIRP for a bit longer :/
      • zwerdlds 11y ago
        The Fed is probably deciding primarily on domestic indicators.
      • marcusgarvey 11y ago
        I'm starting to wonder if "a bit longer" means "forever." There seems to be a real lack of global growth engines.
        • toomuchtodo 11y ago
          If you want to chat over coffee about it, I have a long thesis that agrees with this. Global growth is, for lack of a better way to put it, over. Central planning interest rates will probably never be over 3-4% again (and that's a bullish outlook).
          • Seanambers 11y ago
            Question ; Considering the projected growth in world population and the huge amount of poor people in the world. How can growth be over? Or are you thinking mostly about the west?
            • toomuchtodo 11y ago
              Population growth has slowed (or even stopped) in most countries except for a few outliers in Africa: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW Also, you're assuming more people = population growth; that's like Snapshat saying they're profitable because they have tons of users, but no revenue. You need a properly functioning economy as well as people to have growth (you need more than that, but that's all I included for simplicity sake).
• HiLo 11y ago
  Except that even with commodities getting cut in half or losing up to like 3/4 of their value, we are still in a slightly inflation positive environment. What does that tell you about the state of the underlying economy? Furthermore, you're making the classical economic fallacy of reasoning from a price shift. Oftentimes, from experience, commodity shipping volume increases in times of turbulence, as there are more arbitrage opportunities from the more volatile diffs between grades.
  • rrggrr 11y ago
    Inflation positive? WPI, PPI, CPI and oil prices have all fallen. Where are you seeing any relevant signs of inflation? Remember growth in M2 is offset growth in bank excess reserves sequestered at the Fed.
    • AnimalMuppet 11y ago
      > Where are you seeing any relevant signs of inflation? In my grocery bill.
      • tdees40 11y ago
        N=1
        • OldSchoolJohnny 11y ago
          n=2 and anyone else who regularly shops for groceries in North America. Wealthy silicon valley types who post here are almost comically out of touch with the real world sometimes.
      • lostlogin 11y ago
        And power, water, rent, property tax etc. Wages are the only bug hold out (in my industry anyway)
      • deleted 11y ago
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• chatmasta 11y ago
  A decline in commodity prices increases demand for commodities, so Maersk buys more ships to meet the new demand. Is that possible? Does the Baltic Dry Index vary inversely with the number of ships presently in the water?